Pay Attention To The Continuous Expansion Of Purchasing Manager Index In February

On March 1, 2023, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Manager Index. Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted this.

In February, the effect of economic stabilization policies and measures was further revealed, and the impact of the epidemic subsided and other favorable factors were superimposed. The resumption of production, business and market of enterprises accelerated, and China's economic prosperity continued to rise. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index, the non manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were 52.6%, 56.3% and 56.4% respectively, 2.5, 1.9 and 3.5 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. The three indexes were in the expansion range for two consecutive months.

1、 The purchasing managers' index of manufacturing industry rose significantly

In February, the PMI of the manufacturing industry rose to 52.6%, and all sub indexes were higher than that of the previous month. 18 of the 21 industries surveyed were in the expansion range, an increase of 7 over the previous month. The prosperity of the manufacturing industry continued to expand.

（1） Both sides of production and demand expand synchronously. As the Spring Festival holiday factors and the impact of the epidemic subsided, the production recovery of manufacturing enterprises accelerated, and the market demand continued to improve. The production index and new order index were 56.7% and 54.1%, respectively, higher than 6.9 and 3.2 percentage points last month. From the perspective of industry, the two indexes of wood processing and furniture manufacturing, metal products, electrical machinery and equipment and other industries rose to a high boom range of more than 60.0%, and the activity of industry production and demand rebounded.

（2） The price index is higher than that of last month. Driven by the recovery of market demand, the overall level of raw material purchase prices in the manufacturing industry continued to rise. The purchase price index of main raw materials rose to 54.4%, 2.2 percentage points higher than that of last month. Among them, the increase in steel and related downstream industries was more obvious. The purchase price index of main raw materials in ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, general equipment, special equipment and other industries was higher than 60.0%. The ex factory price index was 51.2%, 2.5 percentage points higher than that of last month, returning to the expansion range, and the overall level of sales prices of manufacturing products rebounded.

（3） PMI of enterprises of all scales is higher than the critical point. The PMI of large, medium and small enterprises was 53.7%, 52.0% and 51.2% respectively, 1.4%, 3.4% and 4.0% higher than that of last month. The prosperity level of enterprises of all sizes rebounded to varying degrees, and the PMI of small enterprises rose to the expansion range for the first time since May 2021. The production index and new order index of large, medium and small enterprises are in the expansion range, and the production and demand have increased compared with the previous month.

（4） PMI of key industries continued to rise. PMI of equipment manufacturing industry, high-tech manufacturing industry, high energy consuming industry and consumer goods industry were 54.5%, 53.6%, 51.6% and 51.3% respectively, higher than 3.8%, 1.1%, 3.0% and 0.4% of the previous month, all in the expansion range, and the prosperity level rebounded for two consecutive months. With the accelerated release of production and demand, the procurement activities of enterprises increased significantly. The procurement volume index of four key industries was higher than that of last month, 54.5%, 50.9%, 52.3% and 54.5% respectively.

（5） Market expectations continue to improve. The expected index of production and business activities was 57.5%, 1.9 percentage points higher than that of last month, and rose to the highest point in nearly 12 months. Enterprise confidence continued to increase. From the perspective of industry conditions, the expected indexes of production and operation activities of 21 industries surveyed are all in the boom zone, among which 10 industries, such as agricultural and sideline food processing, textile, general equipment, special equipment, and automobile, are in the high boom zone of more than 60.0%. Enterprises are optimistic about the recovery and development of the industry in the near future.

2、 Non manufacturing business activity index continued to rise

In February, the non manufacturing business activity index was 56.3%, 1.9 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. It was in the boom zone for two consecutive months, and the non manufacturing industry resumed its development trend.

（1） The prosperity level of the service industry rose to a higher boom range. After the Spring Festival, the business and market recovery of the service industry accelerated, and the prosperity level rose to a recent high. The business activity index of the service industry was 55.6%, 1.6 percentage points higher than that of last month. From the perspective of industry conditions, the business activity index of eight industries, including road transport, air transport, postal service, accommodation, leasing and business services, is at a high boom range of more than 60.0%. The market activity of related industries is high, and the total business volume of enterprises has risen significantly. From the perspective of market demand and expectation, the new order index and business activity expectation index were 54.7% and 64.8% respectively, 3.1 and 0.5 percentage points higher than that of last month. The release of market demand in the service industry was accelerated, and enterprises' confidence in the recovery and development of the industry was enhanced.

（2） The boom level of the construction industry rose to a high boom range. In February, the construction of construction projects started and resumed in a centralized manner, and the construction progress of the construction industry was accelerated. The business activity index was 60.2%, 3.8 percentage points higher than that of last month. From the perspective of enterprise employment, the employee index rose to 58.6%, 5.5 percentage points higher than last month, and the employment of construction enterprises increased significantly. From the perspective of market expectations, the expected index of business activities is 65.8%, which is in a high boom range for three consecutive months. Construction enterprises are optimistic about market development.

3、 Accelerated expansion of comprehensive PMI output index

In February, the comprehensive PMI output index was 56.4%, up 3.5 percentage points from the previous month, rising to a higher boom zone, indicating that the pace of production and operation expansion of Chinese enterprises has accelerated. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index that constitute the comprehensive PMI output index are 56.7% and 56.3% respectively.

In February, the business climate of the enterprise continued to improve, and the purchasing manager index continued to rise. At the same time, it can be seen that the proportion of manufacturing and service enterprises that reported insufficient orders in the survey fell slightly last month, but still exceeded 50.0%, indicating that the problem of insufficient market demand is still prominent, the foundation of China's economic recovery needs to be consolidated, and the subsequent trend of the purchasing managers' index needs further observation.