China'S Major Macroeconomic Indicators Continue To Improve

January November

National industrial added value above designated size

4.3% year-on-year growth

0.2 percentage points faster than January October

Total retail sales of consumer goods: 42794.5 billion yuan

7.2% year-on-year growth

0.3 percentage points faster than January October

Total import and export of goods: 37958.7 billion yuan

Year on year flat

National fixed asset investment (excluding farmers)

46081.4 billion yuan

2.9% year-on-year growth

Same as January October

The data on the operation of the national economy in November released by the National Bureau of Statistics on December 15 shows the resilience and potential of China's economic development.

　　 "Since the beginning of this year, against the background of slow global economic recovery and weak momentum of development, China has overcome various internal and external difficulties and challenges, and its economic performance has rebounded. From the previous 11 months, the main indicators of production demand have risen steadily, employment prices have been generally stable, the balance of payments has been basically balanced, high-quality development has been steadily promoted, the foundation for safe development has been constantly consolidated, and the development plan for the whole year is expected The long-term goal is expected to be achieved. " Liu Aihua, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, summed up at the press conference held by the State Council Information Office on the same day.

Experts interviewed said that as the policy mix continues to show significant effect, coupled with low base and other factors, the economy will continue to recover steadily in the fourth quarter. It is expected that China's economy is expected to achieve a growth rate of more than 5% this year.

　　 GDP growth remains the world leader

According to Liu Aihua's analysis, from the perspective of major macro indicators, the GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year on year, keeping the lead among major economies in the world. The main production and demand indicators continued to rise steadily in October and November. "From January to November, the consumer price of residents rose by 0.3% year on year, and the average urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, which maintained overall stability, demonstrating the resilience and potential of China's economic development."

Liu Xiangdong, vice minister of the Economic Research Department of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said in an interview that China's economic operation is generally recovering, and major economic indicators are showing marginal improvement. In particular, the consumption and service industries are recovering to their pre epidemic levels, which includes both the enhancement of market self recovery momentum and the sustained effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, It effectively pushed China's economy out of the impact of the epidemic. "It is estimated that China's economy is expected to achieve a growth rate of more than 5% this year."

"Under the circumstances of complex and severe external environment and in-depth promotion of risk prevention and resolution in key domestic fields, it is not easy for China's economic operation to continue to recover." In an interview with reporters, relevant insiders also said that China's GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year on year, not only faster than the growth rate of 3% in 2022, but also faster than the average growth rate of 4.5% in the three years of the epidemic, It is also faster than the United States, the euro area, Japan, Brazil, Russia, South Africa and other economies, and maintains a leading position in the world's major economies. "The policy combination will continue to be effective, low base and other factors will promote the sustained and stable recovery of the economy in the fourth quarter. It is estimated that the GDP will grow by 5.3% in 2023."

　　 International organizations raise economic growth expectations

In Liu Xiangdong's view, due to the lack of base effect support, economic growth will face greater pressure next year, especially the lack of effective demand, weak market expectations and other problems to be solved. There are still many risks and hidden dangers in real estate and other fields, and the superposition of unpredictable external environmental risks makes China's economic operation face many prominent contradictions and problems. "To this end, we need to make good preparations in all aspects, continue to strengthen macro policies, boost market confidence, smooth the economic cycle, and ensure high-quality economic and social development."

Although some difficulties and challenges need to be overcome to further promote China's economic recovery, the interviewed experts all said that China's economic development still has good support and favorable conditions.

The above industry insiders said that the policy effect will continue to emerge in the future. "In 2023, the superposition effect of the policy combination of expanding domestic demand, optimizing the real estate policy, package debt scheme, activating the capital market, and promoting the development of private economy will continue to release; 500 billion of the 1 trillion yuan national debt issued in the fourth quarter will be carried forward to 2024 for use, especially the additional issuance of national debt will make the fiscal deficit rate reach 3.8%, break through the 'constraint' of the deficit rate of 3%, and open the policy Policy space has strengthened more positive expectations of the policy. At the same time, the fiscal and monetary policies in 2024 will further enhance efficiency, maintain the necessary fiscal expenditure intensity and reasonable monetary liquidity. "

It is worth noting that recently, several international organizations and financial institutions have raised their expectations for China's economic growth this year: the OECD reports that China's economy will grow by 5.2% this year, the International Monetary Fund has raised its expectations for China's economic growth this year to 5.4%, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs Citigroup and other financial institutions have also raised their expectations for China's economic growth this year to between 5% and 5.5%.

Liu Aihua said that China has a broad market space, a complete industrial system, a solid material and technological foundation, a growing talent dividend, continuous progress in transformation and upgrading, deepening reform and opening up, a large macro policy space, and the basic trend of long-term improvement has not changed. The just concluded Central Economic Work Conference also pointed out the general direction for next year's economic development, helped to further form a synergy of policies, and provided better guarantee for the sustainable and sound development of the economy next year. "Taken together, the favorable conditions for China's economic development are stronger than the unfavorable factors, and the trend of economic recovery will continue to be consolidated and strengthened."

(Source: International Business Daily)