Global Economy: Pay Attention To The Global Cotton Production Increase Expectation And Market Sentiment Fluctuation

This year, cotton planting in the northern hemisphere is smooth and growing well, and the market has a strong expectation of global cotton production increase. At present, cotton picking is still about a month away, and the weather change and its impact on cotton yield during this period need close attention. According to the prediction of the U.S. Department of Agriculture in August, the global cotton output in 2024/25 will be 25.61 million tons, an increase of 880000 tons year on year; The cotton consumption was 25.3 million tons, an increase of 840000 tons year on year.

In the United States, due to favorable weather conditions and advances in agricultural technology, it is expected that the cotton output in the United States will increase significantly to 3.7 million tons, up sharply from 2.6 million tons last year. The growth is due to the increase in planting area, unit yield and disease resistance of cotton.

For India, the cotton output in 2024/25 is estimated to be 5.5 million tons. The increase in yield is due to the expansion of planting area and the adoption of high-yield transgenic cotton varieties, which reduces the demand for pesticides. The Indian cotton sector benefits from government initiatives aimed at supporting farmers, such as the Minimum Support Price (MSP) and various subsidies. In addition, the country's diversified climate conditions and a large number of agricultural labor force have promoted its considerable production capacity.

For Brazil, it is estimated that the annual output will be 3.65 million tons in 2024/25. The favorable climate conditions, technological progress and large-scale agricultural operation will benefit the cotton production in this country. Brazilian cotton is famous for its high quality, which meets the strict requirements of the international market. For Pakistan, the cotton output in 2024/25 is estimated to be 1.3 million tons. The country faces challenges such as food scarcity, pest infestation and outdated agricultural practices. However, efforts to modernize the sector, including the introduction of GM cotton varieties and better pest management techniques, are expected to increase productivity.

Recently, the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September has been rising, and the monetary tightening policy of some western developed economies has eased. Since this year, Canada and Switzerland have cut interest rates twice, and Europe, Britain and Sweden have cut interest rates once. The consumer price index (CPI) of the United States increased by 2.9% year-on-year in July, falling for the fourth consecutive month. The trend of inflation cooling was further consolidated. At the same time, retail sales in July rose 1% month on month, better than the 0.3% expected by the market, further enhancing the market's confidence in the soft landing of the United States economy.

In addition, Bank of Japan Governor Yoshio Ueda said at the parliamentary hearing on August 23 that he would carefully study the impact of interest rate increase in July on the economy and prices before deciding whether to further increase interest rates. However, the basic position of monetary easing will not change, but the current interest rate is still very low. If the economy is in good condition, the interest rate level will be raised to a neutral level. The market expects a low probability of interest rate increase in Japan in the short term, but it does not rule out the possibility of another interest rate increase in the year.