Affected By Geopolitical Situation, This Week'S ICE Cotton Is Still In Shock

Global cotton production still exceeds consumption. The supply and demand report in October showed that the global cotton output in 2024/25 was estimated to be 116.64 million bales, and in September it was estimated to be 116.42 million bales.

The final inventory of global cotton in 2024/25 is estimated to be 76.33 million bales, and 76.49 million bales in September.

This week's inflation data sends contradictory signals to investors

Data shows that the US consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% month on month in September, the same as the increase in August. CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year in September, the smallest year-on-year increase since February 2021, and 2.5% in August.

Excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, the CPI rose 0.3% month on month in September, the same as the increase in August. Core CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year in September and 3.2% in August.

The data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Friday showed that the final demand producer price index (PP (7664, - 18.00, -0.23%) I) It was flat month on month, and economists surveyed had expected a rise of 0.1%.

The dollar hit its highest level since mid August this week, boosted by rising geopolitical tensions and inflation data.

As of October 3, the US export sales and shipment performance was again mediocre

The export sales report released by the US Department of Agriculture on Thursday showed that in the week ending October 3, the current year's US upland cotton export sales increased by 89600 bales, down 7% from the previous week and 12% from the average of the previous four weeks, including a net decrease of 8000 bales in export sales to China. Next year, the net export sales of American upland cotton increased by 13200 bales. The export shipment of American upland cotton was 95100 bales, down 11% from the previous week and 13% from the average of the previous four weeks.

The demand for American Pima cotton has remained stable.

The excellent rate of American cotton dropped to the lowest level in five years

The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced in its weekly crop growth report that, as of the week of October 6, 2024, the excellent rate of American cotton was 29%, 31% in the previous week, and 32% in the same period last year.

The good growth rate of Texas cotton declined by 3% to 17%; Oklahoma cotton quality rate dropped 9% to 17%; Kansas cotton quality rate declined by 7% to 42%.

In the week of October 6, the national cotton harvest rate in the United States was 26%, compared with 20% in the previous week, 23% in the same period last year, and the five-year average was 22%. The hot and dry weather helped the crops in West Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas enter the final growth stage.

Harvesting has advanced rapidly, and cotton ginning has started in many areas.

Hurricane Milton formed in the Gulf of Mexico last week, quickly crossed the Gulf of Mexico and landed in Florida. Although the strong storm caused damage to the state, it did not pose a threat to cotton growing areas in the southeast.

A week's market review shows that the cotton market is back to normal. Investors will continue to monitor harvest progress, commencement activities and crop quality during the cotton harvest period. The market will open on Monday, but the federal holiday will delay the release of USDA crop growth report and export sales report.