Data Released By The General Administration Of Customs Shows That Cotton Imports Have Increased Significantly Month On Month

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, China's cotton import volume in December 2024 was 140000 tons, a 48.7% year-on-year decrease, but an increase of nearly 30000 tons over the same period of the previous year, an increase of more than 27% month on month, significantly faster than that in November (an increase of 2.85% month on month in November), showing a strong rebound momentum. With the month on month growth of China's cotton imports in November and December "turning from negative to positive", most international cotton merchants and trade enterprises generally raised their forecasts of China's total cotton imports in 2024/25 to 1.5-1.7 million tons.

The industry's views on the reasons for the substantial increase of China's cotton imports in December are as follows:

First, the 1% tariff import quota of 894000 tons in 2025 will be issued as scheduled, so the remaining 1% tariff cotton import quota and sliding tariff cotton import quota in 2024 will be used intensively in December, and the bonded cotton of high-grade and high-grade cotton will be mainly purchased from ports.

Second, in December, the main force of ICE cotton futures contracts in March once fell below 68 cents/pound, which led to the "sequential" range of the port bonded Brazilian cotton import cost under 1% tariff (or sliding standard tariff) and the quotation of Xinjiang machine-made cotton with the same index as the mainland warehouse expanded to 1700-2200 yuan/ton, and the competitiveness of Brazilian cotton, American cotton, Australian cotton and other cotton increased.

Third, the performance of new export traceability orders from November to December 2025 is significantly better than that of domestic demand orders. Cloth factories/clothing enterprises in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian and other coastal areas "scramble for exports" before Trump's "second entry". Some contract parties have negotiated to advance textile and clothing orders from January to January 2025, In order to avoid the risk of the US government imposing tariffs significantly.

Fourth, in 2024, only 200000 tons of sliding tariff cotton import quota will be issued, and 100% processing trade will be limited to import. Therefore, in November December, some export-oriented cotton textile enterprises above designated size will have low inventory of imported cotton, which needs to be repaired in time, and the phenomenon of bargain hunting will increase.