International Trade: The Impact Of The US Tariff Policy On Textile And Clothing Exports Is Expected To Be Limited

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Compared with Trump's tenure, the proportion of China's textile raw materials and textile products exported to the United States during Biden's tenure declined slightly. At present, the market is generally concerned about Trump's tariff policy, but when we compare the proportion of China's textile raw materials and textile products exported to the United States during Biden's tenure with Trump's previous tenure, we find that the proportion of China's textile raw materials and textile products exported to the United States is 16.3% during Biden's tenure, 17% during Trump's previous tenure, and 16.5% in 2024. The proportion of textile raw materials and textile products exported to the United States is lower than Trump's previous tenure, On the data side, it is verified that Trump's actual tariff policy has limited impact on the proportion of the final amount of China's textile and clothing exports to the United States in the long term. In 2024, compared with Trump's last term, except that the proportion of textile raw materials and textile products exported to the United States declined slightly, the proportion of exports to the EU and Japan declined significantly, and the proportion of exports to ASEAN increased significantly, stabilizing at about 16% in recent years.

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In 2022, the proportion of American clothing and clothing accessories imports from China will decline again, and the proportion of imports from Mexico will increase to a certain extent. It can be clearly seen that since the second half of 2022, the proportion of American clothing and clothing accessories imports from China has declined again in 2020 when there has been a significant downward trend, and then most of the time has stabilized at about 20% - 26%, while most of the time before that has been more than 30%. After China's share of imports declined, the proportion of imports from Vietnam, India, and other ASEAN countries of the United States increased accordingly. Because the United States imposed higher tariffs on Mexico this time, we focus on the data of US imports from Mexico. Although the proportion of US imports of clothing and clothing accessories from Mexico has increased to a certain extent from less than 3% to about 4% around 2022, there is still a big difference compared with the decline share of imports from China. Even if there is a phenomenon of re export through Mexico, the total number is still relatively small, Even the immediate imposition of tariffs on Mexico has a relatively limited impact on China's textile and clothing exports.

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The impact of the US tariff increase on Zheng Mian is limited in the short term, and more attention is paid to the subsequent policy changes. The United States imposed an additional 10% tariff on China. The overall range was not too large compared with the market rumors before. Therefore, after the implementation of the policy and the short-term bad news, it can be seen that there was only a short-term impact on ICE American Cotton. The first day after the Zheng Cotton Festival, the opening operation was stable with little fluctuation.

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In the long term, China's textile and clothing export pattern has changed significantly. If there is no new change, the impact of tariff policy on textile and clothing exports is expected to be limited. The United States' imports of its own clothing and clothing accessories have declined significantly since 2020. China has reduced its exports of textiles and clothing to the United States, ASEAN, Japan and other countries, and increased its exports to ASEAN. After the implementation of the US tariff policy, China then took countermeasures, which is bound to increase the domestic opposition of the US, and Trump's tariff policy will also have a greater impact on the US inflation, economy and other aspects. It is expected that the final range of the US foreign tariff policy can be controlled. Follow up and continue to pay attention to relevant progress.

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