2016, In The Beginning Of The Year, The Investment Really Did Not Know Which Way To Go.

In the first week of 2016, both A and foreign exchange markets were surging.

On the 4 trading day, A shares triggered a 4 fuse and the RMB against the US dollar fell sharply for 4 consecutive days.

The fear of capital flight has been triggered by the depreciation of the renminbi, which has led to a downward pressure on the stock market.

After the SFC halted the "fusing mechanism", will the A share market gradually become stable? Is the stock market still worth following after the huge fluctuations? How will the residents and enterprises invest in the face of the sharp depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar?

RMB depreciation: increasing asset allocation overseas

On Friday, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar rose for the first time in the week, rising 10 points to 6.5636 yuan, ending the 8 consecutive day of downward adjustment.

From the middle price point of view, in January 8th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was about 6 .56 yuan, which was about 6.6% lower than the 6.13 yuan a year ago.

At present, Bank of China and ICBC's annual interest rate on US dollar deposits does not exceed 0 .8%.

Mei Zhixin, head of the foreign exchange fund team of Guangzhou branch of CITIC Bank, told reporters in Nandu that from the perspective of risk aversion, it is possible for an individual or an enterprise to increase the allocation of US dollar assets in the allocation of funds.

However, in terms of yield, it is actually abandoning the relatively high yield of the renminbi and converting it into a relatively low yield dollar, which is not cost-effective.

But if the future depreciation of the RMB can make up for the difference between the US and China's interest rates, that is, the rate of increase in the US dollar interest rate can cover the loss of the US dollar yield.

Mei reminded that residents and enterprises should pay attention to the comparison of interest rates and yields between the two currencies in addition to paying attention to the exchange rate.

However, for those who have plans to study abroad, travel and consumption, the cost will increase. If we are concerned about the continued appreciation of the US dollar, we can make early preparations for the exchange.

With the advancement of internationalization, exchange rate fluctuations will have a greater impact on investors' returns.

From the medium to long term, the strong dollar is a major trend, and the yield of related products will rise.

Yen Chi Jie, an analyst at bank rate network, said that in the medium to long term, the strengthening of the US dollar is a major trend.

For investors, the proper allocation of part of US dollar assets, or the investment in part of the medium and short term US dollar financial products, is meaningful from the perspective of risk diversification.

However, compared with the yield of 4%-5%, US dollar financial management is only a low interest rate product, which is about 2.5% lower than the yield of RMB.

Mei Zhixin also told reporters in the south that at present, the yield of US dollar financing is not high, because the US dollar funds are relatively abundant in the domestic market system, and the yield of US dollar financial management is relatively low.

Don't think that with the increase of the US dollar interest rate, the earnings of US dollar financial products will increase, because it has something to do with the adequacy of the US dollar.

Yuan Zengting, deputy director of the financial products center of the Financial Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters that it is possible for ordinary investors to buy foreign currency financial products, but there is also a risk of foreign exchange management. At this stage, a large number of exchange banks may have the pressure of window guidance, and foreign bank financial products themselves also have some risks.

The recent devaluation of the renminbi is not conducive to the stability of the short-term capital market. However, under the substantial depreciation of the RMB, the relatively high export industry has benefited from it.

"For the import oriented foreign trade enterprises, the depreciation of the RMB will cause greater pressure on these enterprises, which is good for the export enterprises." Liu Dongliang, senior analyst at China Merchants Bank's financial headquarters, said that the specific circumstances should be combined with the operation and financial status of the enterprises themselves, because foreign trade enterprises and large enterprise groups have foreign currency financing and foreign currency receipts and payments. In this case, how to arrange currency, assets and liabilities reasonably should be considered.

Mei Zhixin said that the depreciation of the RMB has the greatest impact on the enterprises that have made assets in local currency and liabilities in foreign currencies, because in the past 10 years, the RMB has been in a state of appreciation. These enterprises prefer to convert liabilities into Renminbi, forming renminbi assets and then arbitrage.

Now that the US dollar has strengthened and the renminbi depreciated, the situation has reversed, and the impact on the companies that are indebted to the dollar will be relatively large.

Liu Dongliang suggested that we should try to avoid the currency of appreciation when we were in debt. For example, before the depreciation of the US dollar, many enterprises increased the debt assets of the US dollar. Now the US dollar has appreciated. From the angle of the development of enterprises, we should change the foreign currency of these liabilities into the assets of RMB.

Facing the background of increasing interest rates and accelerating depreciation of the US dollar, increasing overseas allocation has become a consistent recommendation of many financial institutions since last year.

Xia Chun, director of the Hongkong research department, told reporters in Nandu that increasing the proportion of overseas distribution is a very obvious trend from Noah's high net worth population. It has become a rigid demand for high net worth people.

"A lot of high net worth people, 10% of the funds have gone out," Xia Chun revealed, from the point of view, stocks, private equity, credit bonds and other traditional large categories of assets is still the majority of Chinese people in overseas allocation of choice.

For the investment strategy of the world's major stock markets in 2016, Huang Weihong, director of Hang Seng Bank's global marketing department, told reporters in Nandu that although the Fed raised interest rates, it was expected that interest rates would not be too large, and that the US economy would remain high for 1-2 years.

On the other hand, he preferred the European market to the US stock market, on the grounds that the euro is still relatively low.