Investment Clock Will Again Be Valued By Investors In 2016.

Flowers are similar year after year, but different from year to year.

The same is true in the capital market. Every year the fundamentals are almost the same, but every year the market is brand new.

In 2016, the stock market would bid farewell to the bull market, and the tide of bankruptcies would hit fiercely. Real estate faces a historic turning point. Oil will rebound and gold is still bottoming up. The depreciation era of RMB will also be established.

2016 looks too chaotic for China's capital.

The general observation should be: if we want to be short, we think there are many positive factors.

In fact, the biggest fundamental aspect of 2016 is that the serious excess capacity of traditional production will be faced with liquidation.

But how big is the impact of this fundamental reality? But it is being questioned in the passion of public innovation.

Though the tide of bankruptcy is coming, it is not necessarily the time to grab cheap goods.

When the capacity is out of the management team, it is almost worthless.

The pricing of assets that are on the verge of bankruptcy is also full of game theory.

In the environment of national growth, the bankruptcy tide is a dark battle. How to get profits depends not only on whether you find the cheapest picking opportunity, but also whether you can match the best assets for cheap assets.

For those keen on industrial investment, take the advice: don't easily buy industries that are lower than net assets. This seems to be a worthwhile deal to bring you into an abyss.

Over the past more than 10 years, the appreciation of the renminbi has been rising because we need it.

It takes RMB to buy Chinese goods and RMB to buy Chinese houses.

In the future, the RMB will enter a longer depreciation era, because people do not need to buy more Chinese goods, and do not need to buy more Chinese houses.

In fact, both the scale of China's manufacturing industry and the scale of China's construction industry are at a turning point: not slowing down, but entering the era of negative growth.

The entry of RMB into the era of depreciation will change the asset allocation of Chinese people: the stock market will bid farewell to the bull market, and the tide of bankruptcy will hit fiercely. Real estate is facing a historic turn.

In large categories of assets, oil may rebound, and high-grade bonds and cash will become an inevitable choice for investors.

Since the A shares bottomed out in December 2012, the dream of reform has triggered a super pformation bull market: the gem index has risen 7 times from the bottom to the high point.

Then everything is always broken before it can be established.

If the traditional economy is not disillusioned, the prices of all kinds of social production factors remain high. Only by advocating "public entrepreneurship and innovation" can the government only seduce the ignorant middle class into the battlefield of entrepreneurship.

I believe that in the past few years, the general public of entrepreneurship must have been bitten by tears, returning from the solid middle class to the proletariat again.

For many listed companies, the Internet + pformation over the past few years is not to usher in the harvest period, but to be falsified in the next few years.

The stock market crash at the end of June 2015 and early July is precisely

Overdraft for too long in the future, overdraw the success of the pformation in the distant future.

Falling down, waiting for the collapse of the unified industry, waiting for the full collapse of factor prices, only cheap infrastructure can be used for new entrepreneurs to promote a new round of prosperity.

After a two-year unilateral bull market in 2013/2014 and a high bull market in 2015, the stock market needs sufficient time and sufficient adjustment to complete the clearing.

The process is straightforward: after the big bull market, it must be a longer bear market.

Since 2011, I have kept watching gold and repeatedly pointed out that gold is entering a long bear road.

The reason is that loose expectations for basic currency issuance have reached their peak, and the expected easing has been overwhelming.

Be based on

The easing of expected gold prices is unlikely to be driven by greater expectations.

Gold prices that are too large will inevitably fall into a long-term downward trend.

When the United States increases interest rates, it means that the expectation of continued easing has been broken, but this is not the starting point for the next start of gold, and to a certain extent, it means that the price of gold will stop.

The change in gold prices is based on expectations. In the past, expectations were based on the circulation of basic currencies, and future expectations would focus on the speed of money circulation.

Over the past 4 years, the decline in the price of gold is due to the adjustment of the expected rate of expansion of the basic currency.

If the economy recovers and the velocity of money moves up in the future, the price of gold will rise.

But this expectation still needs time.

Therefore, the rebound in gold prices will not be as fast as oil.