What The Global Economy Needs To Pay Attention To Is Risk Awareness.

The World Bank released the latest issue of the global economic outlook on 6, saying that the global economy will need to adapt to the new growth stage of major emerging economies, low commodity prices, weak trade and slow capital flows.

In view of many unfavorable factors, the global economy in 2016 needs all parties to enhance their sense of risk.

Kaushik Basu, senior vice president and chief economist of the world bank, said at the media conference on 6, the World Bank report shows that the global economy is once again lower than expected in 2015, and 2016 will be the year of risk.

The World Bank expects the global economy to grow by 2.4% in 2015, and its growth rate will slightly increase to 2.9% in 2016, but lower than the 3.2% forecast in June last year.

The global economy is at risk.

The growth rate slowed down.

Over the years, emerging economies have become an important engine of global growth and have steadily increased their share in the world economy.

But since 2010, the growth rate of emerging economies has slowed down gradually.

The report predicts that developing countries are expected to grow by 4.8% this year, down from 5.4% in June last year and 5.3% in the next two years.

Ba Su said that the trend of growth and differentiation in emerging economies has been strengthened over the past few years.

The economy of Brazil and Russia is expected to continue to decline in 2016, while China and India are expected to maintain steady pace of expansion.

The World Bank expects Brazil and Russia's economy to decline by 2.5% and 0.7% respectively this year, while the Chinese economy is expected to grow at 6.7% this year and 6.5% next year.

The growth rate of India's economy in the next two years is expected to be 7.8% and 7.9% respectively.

Director of the world bank development forecast Bureau

At the telephone conference, China's economic performance was still eye-catching. The government was effective in managing the economic slowdown, and the economic growth rate remained high.

However, the risk of excess capacity in the process of deleveraging can not be ignored.

The International Monetary Fund has also warned that the global economy will face many challenges in 2016.

For emerging economies and developing countries, in the context of falling commodity prices and the tightening of financial conditions caused by the Fed's rate hike, emerging economies are facing pressure of slower growth, less capital inflows, declining foreign exchange reserves and currency devaluation.

The Fed's interest rate increase, China's economic trend and Global trade situation are expected to have an impact on the global growth prospects in 2016.

The tightening of financial conditions brought about by the start of the rate hike and the intensification of capital flows also threaten the global economy, especially for emerging economies that have already slowed down.

However, corse also said the World Bank expects the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle to be more moderate.

The United States tightens monetary policy in a stable economy and healthy labor market, the United States

The positive spillover effect on other economies may offset the negative impact of tight financial conditions on emerging economies.

Ba Su believes that the Fed's interest rate raising process will have limited impact on China.

The US interest rate increase may further push the US dollar stronger, but China still has room to adjust its exchange rate, and the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate may promote export growth.

The World Bank report also points out that weak global trade, falling commodity prices and geopolitical tensions will be the main risks facing the global economy in 2016.