Is The Export Situation Good Or Bad? Authoritative Departments Disagree.

Export growth has dropped to a single digit.

Are exports optimistic or pessimistic in the second half?

In the late July, the industry thought that the eve of the textile export tax rebate was very important.

But judging from authoritative departments, there are still great differences.

On Tuesday, Vice Minister of Commerce Gao Hucheng's voice on optimistic judgement of exports remained unchanged. Yesterday, the NPC finance and Economic Commission also said that the tight economic environment at home and abroad and the superposition of policy adjustments made China's export situation face severe challenges.

The views of the Ministry of Commerce and the finance and Economic Commission of the people's Congress on the trend of exports are completely opposite.

Yesterday, our reporter interviewed some government officials and professionals in Beijing on this issue.

Most of the views still believe that the future export trend may not be as optimistic as the forecast of the Ministry of Commerce. They urged that the government and enterprises should jointly cope with the winter of this export enterprise.

According to customs data, China's exports grew by 21.9% over the first half of the year, slowing by 5.7 percentage points over the same period last year.

However, Long Guoqiang, deputy director of the Ministry of Foreign Economic Research of the State Council Development Research Center, said, "the increase in exports has actually dropped to single digits."

"In the first half of this year, the growth rate of US dollar denominated exports was 21.9%, and the growth rate of RMB denominated exports was 11.2%," he said in an interview with our reporter.

If we cut off the domestic inflation factor, we can see that China's actual export growth rate in the first half of this year has reached a single digit.

Data from the finance and Economic Commission of the people's Congress also indicated that exports increased by 22.9% over the first 5 months, an increase of 4.9 percentage points over the same period last year. If we consider the depreciation of the renminbi and the larger appreciation of the US dollar, the actual export growth will decline rapidly.

Businesses will be more painful in the second half of the year.

For the second half of the export situation, long Guoqiang said, "is already very grim and will continue to deteriorate in the second half of the year."

He explained that the impact of the US subprime crisis has not yet passed, and that the global economic crisis is deepening.

The European Union's economy is also declining as a result of the depreciation of the US dollar.

Yesterday, the NPC finance and Economic Commission's report also pointed out the dilemma of enterprises at present: some labor-intensive industries will be more impacted.

The national garment export in May has seen a negative growth of 0.64% over the same period.

With the sharp drop in export growth, many export oriented enterprises have significantly reduced their profits and some have even been in a state of loss.

Moreover, the domestic production cost of export enterprises is increasing, which is mainly caused by the rising price of raw materials and financing difficulties of enterprises.

Moreover, for the implementation of the export tax rebate policy implemented last year, long said, "the foreign trade policy formulated last year is now out of date, and its role is more and more apparent."

However, Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the Ministry of Commerce, is not very sympathetic to his views.

From his point of view, though the export growth is slowing down from the data, it is still growing, and not all sectors' export growth is decreasing.

"For some high-tech export sectors, their export situation is still very good."

Mei Xin Yu told reporters that although there are some labor-intensive enterprises export is not good, but we should look at the overall trend of China's exports.

There are still objections to tax rebate callbacks.

"Although the overall export situation is better, it is pessimistic for the textile industry and some other labor-intensive enterprises."

A person in charge of China Textile chamber of Commerce told reporters.

"The export tax rebate callback has arrived at an urgent task."

Long Guoqiang told reporters, "I hope to see the relevant policies."

At present, the most urgent policies include raising the export tax rebate and solving the financing difficulties of enterprises.

He said, "in addition to the introduction of short-term policy for half a year to a year, I can see no other way."

In its report yesterday, the NPC Financial and Economic Committee also proposed that China's textile and clothing, toys and other industries that have prominent advantages and can effectively alleviate employment pressure, especially some high-end products, should consider giving certain policy tilt.

However, reporters still found in the interview that there are still many views that do not agree with the government's strength to help export enterprises.

Zhao Yumin, director of the international marketing department of the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview with our reporter that export enterprises could not rely on the support of government policies to tide over the difficulties. Instead, they should adapt themselves to market changes through their own adjustment, eliminate backward production capacity, and carry out industrial upgrading to resist market risks.

However, long Guoqiang did not agree with Zhao's view.

He believed that when the government introduced policies, we should pay special attention to the strength.

"It is necessary to promote industrial upgrading and not give enterprises too much pressure." for enterprises to rely on their own strength to overcome the difficulties, long also agrees, but he still said, "industrial upgrading is indeed a general direction, but first of all, enterprises should first survive and then upgrade."