Textile And Clothing Tax Rebate Is Difficult To Appreciate.

Gao Hucheng, Vice Minister of Commerce, said recently that the implementation of the export tax rebate rate for textile and garment products will not be implemented for a long time. After studying the effect of relevant measures, we will further study whether there is room for further increase.

Textile and garment export tax rebate rate up 2% of the "rescue strategy" has been implemented for a month, but for many people, the continuation of the problem is still "where is spring?"

"Because of the continued appreciation of the renminbi and rising domestic costs, the tax rebate of two percentage points can only be said to have slightly enhanced industry confidence."

Another researcher pointed out that the move is purely "a stalling tactic in the trend of industrial upgrading", and many small and medium-sized enterprises have been pulled back from the edge of the exit, which is not conducive to the development of the dominant enterprises.

"For the industry, the substantive impact is not big, and it has little impact on the textile and garment sector in the capital market."

Under the influence of a pivotal factor in the appreciation of RMB, the mechanism of stock selection in textile and garment sector has become a trend of "internal (mainly domestic brand)" and "external (export oriented)" trend.

　　退稅影響微

From the announcement of listed companies' gradual disclosure, we can also see the influence of this policy.

According to the announcement by Lu Tai A (000726.SZ), which is the most beneficial, it is estimated that according to the import and export plan of 8-12 months in 2008, the company will increase the total profit of the company by about 21 million 80 thousand yuan this year.

In addition, the half year benefit of 002083.SZ shares was 15 million, and Jin Feida (002239 shares, quotes, information, main trading) (002239.SZ) also benefited from 4 million to 5 million. (002083)

But Fujian Nanfang (600483 shares, quotes, information, main trading) (600483.SH), Huasheng shares (600156 shares, market, information, main trading) (600156.SH), Jiangsu Kaiyuan (600981 shares, market, information, main business) (600981.SH) and many other listed companies have announced that tax rebate adjustment has little effect.

The CITIC investment research report estimates that the adjustment will increase the total profit of the textile industry by US $2 billion 600 million. According to the exchange rate of US dollar to 6.82 yuan, the profit will increase by about 17 billion 700 million yuan.

However, due to the relatively high dispersion of textile and garment enterprises, such a large amount of money scattered to a single level of listed companies, the impact is not obvious.

The textile and clothing sector index provided by great wisdom shows that the cumulative decline of the index has been 22.6% since August 1st, compared with a 16.96% decline in the same period.

According to the research report released by CICC, from the historical point of view, the correlation between the adjustment of export tax rebate rate and the change of plate index is not high.

However, the proportion of institutional investors in the textile and garment sector has increased, from 2.4% in early August to 2.7% at present.

Against the backdrop of RMB appreciation and weak foreign demand, it is almost impossible to hope that the export tax rebate will reverse the industry.

"Compared to the export tax rebate, the appreciation of the renminbi has brought us much more influence."

In the first half of this year, the appreciation rate of RMB has reached 6.5%. In the first half of this year, the export volume of Ru Tai A was 210 million US dollars. If it did not take hedging measures such as hedging, its exchange loss would exceed RMB 80 million yuan.

However, due to the proper use of the hedging business, the exchange income of 99 million 900 thousand yuan in the first half of 2008 has completely covered the pressure of RMB appreciation, or even a slight surplus.

More caution

"The export tax rebate adjustment in August is still a little different from our previous expectations. Before the industry, it was widely assumed that the export tax rebates for clothing increased by 4 percentage points."

At the same time, since September 1st, India has also increased export tax rebates for some textiles, leather, cotton and other products, which has also been interpreted by some sectors as a "dark battle" between China and India.

The speculation that the relevant departments will raise the export tax rebate again is coming to life.

Guo Haiyan, a researcher at CICC, believes that the textile export tax rebate rate may have room for further improvement, "but policy decisions will be more prudent."