Textile Exports Have Been Showing Negative Growth?

The latest figures released by the General Administration of Customs show that in 2008 1~9, China's textile and apparel exports totaled 136 billion 940 million yuan, an increase of 8.12% over the same period in 2007 and 8 months in a row.

In fact, if combined with exchange rate changes, the export of Chinese textile and clothing is actually showing negative growth since June of this year.

Experts say it is far from the bottom.

In the next 1~2 years, the winter of the whole industry will be "cold", and this trend is irreversible.

In addition to the figures of the General Administration of customs, the third quarter earnings announcement or announcement of textile and apparel listed companies can reflect the winter's coming from details.

Except for the growth of individual companies caused by accidental factors, most of the textile and garment companies which have announced the third quarter results are very bleak.

Domestic black denim production enterprises Black Peony announcement, the company's first three quarters net profit loss.

China's clothing forecast, 1~9 months of this year, the profit attributable to the parent company is -1590 million yuan.

600448.SH said in its three quarter earnings forecast that the net profit of the company in the first three quarters is expected to fall by 50%.

In each company's explanation of performance loss, most analysts believe that the rising cost of textile industry and the pressure of RMB appreciation are the main reasons for the company's losses.

But in fact, besides the above reasons, the factors that affect the export of Chinese textile and clothing become more complicated.

According to expert analysis, the analysis of the listed companies is mainly applicable to the first half of the year.

In the second half of the year, the situation was turning rapidly. As the US financial crisis spread to the whole world and spread to the real economy, the consumption situation of the major exporters of textiles and clothing in the United States and the European Union deteriorated, and the external demand market of the textile and garment industry was greatly weakened, thus affecting the export of our textile and clothing.

"The current problem is beyond our own capacity to solve."

Experts believe that the exchange rate issue can be balanced through fiscal and taxation policies.

However, the change of the external demand market is not the fact that the Chinese government can change it.

What is worrying is that for the textile and garment industry, it takes a cycle to order from foreign customers to production and then to final export. In other words, the changes in the external demand market will also take some time to reflect the figures of the General Administration of customs.

Therefore, experts believe that it is far from the bottom. Next year, the export of Chinese textile and clothing will become worse.

And this bad situation will last for at least 1~2 years.

Of course, as far as textile and garment industry is concerned, the current situation is not completely defeated.

At least some domestic market oriented clothing enterprises are not too bad.

The net profit of the first three quarters of this year increased by 150% to 250% compared with the same period last year.

The development of the domestic demand market seems to be the main way for textile and garment enterprises to tide over difficulties in the face of the Changing Fundamentals of the external demand market.

In the interview with reporters, general manager of conch apparel, general manager of the leading stock, said that the company's foreign trade market has been affected by this year.

However, because the proportion of domestic sales and export sales is maintained at 1:1, the OEM industry is mainly aimed at high-end clothing with a processing cost of more than RMB 15 yuan.

But foreseen that the external demand market may be further deteriorated in the future, conch has decided to increase the proportion of its own brand clothing, which will at least increase by more than 10%.

In order to stimulate the domestic market, conch shirts have recently introduced the advanced custom shirts, and at the same time learn from PPG to build a network sales platform, aiming to reduce the cost of sales.

Then, can China's textile and garment industry play a "Blood Route" through domestic demand?

Experts are not optimistic about this.

He believes that replacing domestic demand with domestic demand and stimulating growth is a long-term plan that requires at least 3~5 years.

At the same time, as more companies look at the domestic market, the competition in the domestic demand market will be even more tragic.