The Loss Of Textile Industry Is The Most Difficult Period Than That Of Over 20% Industries.

The latest figures released by the General Administration of Customs show that in the 1-9 months of this year, China's textile and apparel exports totaled 136 billion 940 million yuan, an increase of 8.12% over the same period in 2007 and a 8 consecutive month of decline.

In fact, if combined with exchange rate changes, the export of Chinese textile and clothing is actually showing negative growth since June of this year.

In addition to the figures of the General Administration of customs, the three quarterly reports of textile and apparel listed companies can reflect the winter coming from the details.

Black peony and Chinese clothing have already predicted losses in the first three quarters, while China Textile shares expect 50% net profit in the first three quarters.

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Statistics show that in the first 8 months of 2008, the total revenue and profit of textile enterprises above designated size increased by 15.46% and 3.20% respectively over the same period last year, and the growth rate of the industry dropped significantly, and showed a continuous downward trend since the beginning of the year.

The proportion of industry losses in August was 21.33%.

Shi Hongmei, an analyst at Orient Securities textile industry, points out that the gross profit margin of the domestic textile industry was 10.82% in the first 8 months from the specific indicators of the profit table, which was basically stable compared with the same period last year. However, due to the increase in the cost of the period, the profit margin of the industry decreased.

In the first 8 months, business expenses and financial expenses increased by 17.03% and 22.40% respectively, all above the growth of main revenue.

This is basically consistent with the information disclosed by the listed companies in 2008.

In addition to export pressure, various raw materials, labor costs and capital costs are also the difficulties facing domestic textile and garment enterprises.

And the apparel retailing industry, which is also part of the textile industry, has suffered a heavy blow. Judging from the statistics, this year, domestic apparel retailing is still growing rapidly.

But according to Zhang Bin, an analyst at state securities (600109, stock bar), the situation is not as good as statistics.

Zhang Bin pointed out that, from the market situation, since June, the discount of brand clothing enterprises has exceeded the previous years.

In the case of macroeconomic slowdown, inflation and the reduction of wealth effect, the growth rate of domestic garment retail is likely to decline.

"The possibility of significant changes in clothing consumption in the fourth quarter is not great. We should also take a cautious view of the market situation in the first half of 2009."

Zhang Bin emphasized.

In the textile industry, exports have always had a very important position.

But this year, the export growth rate of textile industry continued to decline rapidly, and the export growth rate in one month has continued to decline since the second half of 2007.

Statistics show that in the first 8 months of 2008, the growth rate of industry exports was 7.72%, which was 11.05 percentage points lower than the 18.77% growth level in 2007.

Shi Hongmei pointed out that since October 2007, the monthly export growth rate of the industry has continued to decline, and in August 2008, the export growth rate of the industry was only 1.68%.

With the decline in US demand and the weakening of the global economy, the decline in garment exports is particularly evident, which is also the main reason for the sharp drop in export growth in the whole industry.

From the point of view of the region, the impetus to support the textile industry's export growth remains mainly from Europe. In the first 8 months, exports to Europe increased by 18.79%, while exports to other two traditional export regions, the United States and China, showed signs of decline. The first 8 months decreased by 1.34% and 11.66% respectively from the same period in Hongkong.

But Li Zhixian, an analyst at Guotai Junan, believes that the impact of the global economic turmoil triggered by US subprime lending on the export demand of the industry is expected to continue for some time, and the demand for textiles will be further reduced.

The export tax rebate rate of some textiles and garments started in August has some positive impact on the industry. But considering the appreciation of the RMB against the euro, the export of the industry in the future is still not optimistic.

Regarding the positive impact of the end of 2008 on textiles and clothing restrictions in the United States, Shi Hongmei believes that it should be cautious. She expects that other forms of trade barriers will continue for a longer period of time even if the deadline for cancellation of special safeguard is cancelled.

"At present, the textile and garment industry has entered the most difficult period, and the dawn of recovery is not yet seen."

Shi Hongmei said frankly.

However, she believes that the winners of the industry's adversity should be moderately optimistic.

Zhang Bin is more optimistic about the brand clothing enterprises and the leading enterprises in the management mode. He suggests that he can focus on seven wolves, American bond and Yantai spandex.