It Is Still Necessary To Consolidate The Economy.

With the release of industrial and consumer data for 13 days, the main data of China's economic operation in April were all "baked": investment accelerated, consumption was good, exports rose year-on-year, the industrial growth rate dropped slightly, but higher than the end of the year, the real estate boom fell, and the price declines deepened.

"China's economic performance in April shows that the economic downturn started from the second half of last year has been initially curbed, and the central package has achieved initial success.

But the world economic situation is still grim, and China's economy is still in a difficult period.

We must implement various measures of the Central Committee to stabilize the good signs. "

Yao Jingyuan, chief economist of the National Bureau of statistics, said.

When the outbreak of the international financial crisis strongly impacted China's export-oriented economy, more reliance on domestic demand and economic development became the first choice of macroeconomic policies.

A series of policies and measures to expand domestic demand, which began in November last year, have been shown in April this year.

From 1 to April, investment in fixed assets in cities and towns increased by 30.5% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 1.9 percentage points faster than that in the first quarter.

Taking into account the negative and declining prices in the same period, the real growth rate of investment is even higher.

In particular, the total investment of new projects will increase by 90.7%, indicating that future investment will be at a high level.

"The growth rate of 30.5% is not only higher than that at the end of last year, but also higher than the same period in ordinary years. This shows that the effect of expanding government investment is becoming more and more obvious."

Cai Zhizhou, a researcher at the national economic accounting research center of Peking University, pointed out.

Consumption has maintained a good momentum.

In April, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 14.8% over the same period last year, and the rate of increase was still 0.1 percentage points faster than that of last month.

Among them, under the policy of "home appliances to the countryside" and other policies, the growth rate of rural consumption is nearly 3 percentage points higher than that of cities.

Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Ministry of macroeconomic development of the State Council Development Research Center, believes that the current domestic consumption continues to grow rapidly, indicating that the follow-up energy of China's economy is very strong.

Especially in real estate and auto consumption.

In April, China's economy continued to show positive changes on the basis of the first quarter. But the latest export figures show that the world economic situation is still grim, and the weak external demand is still the biggest factor restricting China's economic downturn.

In April, China's exports fell by 22.6% over the same period last year, a drop of 5.5 percentage points from the previous month.

However, according to the analysis of the General Administration of customs, according to the average daily working hours, the export growth in April was 6.9%, which was another month after month's growth.

"The continuous increase in exports does not mean that the contraction of external demand is reversed. It only shows that the decline in exports is narrowing every month."

Zhang Yansheng, director of the Institute of foreign economics, National Institute for macroeconomic research, national development and Reform Commission, explained.

Processing trade accounts for more than half of China's exports.

In April, the import of processing trade decreased by 27.4% compared with the same period last year, which means that the export situation of processing trade in the next 3 to 6 months is still not optimistic.

Mechanical and electrical products account for 60% of exports.

In April, the export of mechanical and electrical products decreased by 22.2% compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points from the previous month.

"The key to China's export situation is to see when the external market will pick up.

Judging from the current situation, it is estimated that exports will decline by about 20% in the first half of this year.

Zhang Xiaoji, Minister of Foreign Economic Research of the State Council Development Research Center, said.

Zhang's judgment comes from the analysis of the current world economic situation.

Recently, the US economic deterioration has been slowing down, but the European and American economies are likely to oscillate at the bottom for some time, and the global economy is still in a difficult period.

The continuous shrinking of external demand aggravated the difficulties of China's export-oriented industries.

In April, the delivery value of China's industrial enterprises decreased by 14.3% compared with the same period last year, and the decline was larger than last month.

Over the same period, 54.3% of the main industrial products increased or dropped more than last month, many of which were highly dependent on external markets.

Foreign trade export enterprises have absorbed tens of millions of Chinese workers.

"These enterprises' continuous operation difficulties not only affect the production and investment of upstream and downstream enterprises, but also result in a decrease in employment and a decline in household income, which will further restrict future consumption growth."

Zhang Xiaoji analysis.

"Ensuring growth" is the primary goal of this year's economic work.

At present, the economic situation at home and abroad is complex. To achieve this goal, we must work hard to consolidate the good signs of economic development. On the other hand, we should pay attention to dealing with new problems at any time.

Yao Jingyuan pointed out that the situation facing China's economy is extremely complex and is still in a difficult period.

We should not only see the favorable conditions and positive factors of economic development, firmly strengthen the confidence in doing all kinds of work, but also fully estimate the seriousness and complexity of facing the situation and implement the policies and measures promulgated by the central government.

"At present, China's economy should be in a recovery trend, but it is not yet normal, and the impact of the international financial crisis on the world economy may be more serious than expected."

Cai Zhizhou said that the International Monetary Fund and the world bank have recently sharply reduced the forecast of the major developed countries' economic growth rate this year.

Under such circumstances, whether the increase in domestic demand in China can offset the sharp reduction in external demand is a difficult problem.

The uncertainty of the global economy, coupled with the rise of international trade protectionism, has increased China's difficulties in stabilizing external demand.

"Psychological panic caused by influenza pandemic may also adversely affect foreign trade."

Zhang Yansheng pointed out that preparations for this need also be made.