What Does The Gap Between Public Perception And Statistics Mean?

In the face of public doubts about the fact that the CPI data in April failed to reflect the true level of inflation, the National Bureau of statistics published yesterday's official website that in general, macroeconomic statistics were consistent with people's feelings.

The article points out that CPI rose from 1.5% in January to 2.8% in April, which is consistent with the trend of public inflation expectations.

Nowadays, the Bureau of statistics has done a lot of work, that is, whenever the statistics are published, they must come up with "excuse": the data is right, but the eyes of the masses are observing the data.

As a result, the data of the Bureau of statistics were "very happy" to compete with the public. Until the announcement of "the sale price of housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China rose by 1.5%" in 2009, even the Statistics Bureau of the home bureau could not see it.

Of course, there is no doubt about the trend consensus of the Bureau of statistics. If the trend is different, do we still have statistics?

We just doubt the course of this trend.

Why do the public feel the price rise is like "rabbit run", but the result of statistical data always shows "turtle climb".

In April, when CPI grew by 2.8% over the past year, some scholars questioned why CPI just stuck in the distance of 2.8%, which is not far from the 3% red line.

Here, regardless of whether the CPI data is intended to be "harmonious", it is just puzzled why CPI data always lag behind the public's feelings.

At the beginning of the year, when the public felt that inflation was knocking on the door, the statistics were only 1.5% of the gentle breeze and drizzle. But when the public felt that inflation had been like tiger, the statistics were still 2.8% which did not hurt or itch.

An economist once pointed out that when inflation is announced, inflation is out of hand.

Statistical institutions are always keen to make a technical explanation for the gap between this data and their feelings. For example, different consumer organizations and people in different regions have different feelings about prices, such as the weight composition of CPI, the scope and caliber of the survey, and the difference between the base period and so on.

However, this "technical" explanation is all in every detail, but it stays in the details. The real problem is that this statistical method is still a product of the shortage economic era. The setting of weights does not reflect the current consumption level and demand.

In fact, the public concern is not why slow, but how to become slow, to keep up with the feelings of their own.

At the same time, the public's feeling is more than the ring. Therefore, instead of taking the trouble to write and explain, it is better to make changes, more ring data, rather than the flagship year-on-year data.

It is not difficult to make a response, but it is difficult to be prudent.

The Statistics Bureau's response is reasonable, and the national development and Reform Commission declared that "4 trillion has no money to flow into the real estate market," and recently said that "China's economy has not been kidnapped by real estate", which is almost challenging the common sense of the public.

We believe that state ministries and commissions should be able to serve the public, rather than stress, in order to be correct and correct.

After all, the problem is that it can not be gloss over. It is also misleading to the decision of the state. In the end, it will only increase the cost of solving the problem.