People'S Daily: Stock Index Futures Are Not The "Culprit".

Since its launch in April 16th, stock index futures have been full months. Along with the futures market, the A share market also started a big drop. At the closing price of April 16th, the largest decline in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index reached 17.87% in the fall of this round.

The people's daily issued a note in May 6th, "why China's economy is getting better and why the stock market has fallen". In May 14th, when it issued "why A shares fell for a long time", it again issued today that stock index futures were not "the culprit". The article said that the decision on the stock market's ups and downs was based on fundamentals and macro policies rather than stock index futures. The reason for this decline is the impact of foreign financial events, as well as the adjustment of domestic monetary policy and property market policy. Professor He Qiang, director of the securities and Futures Research Institute of Central University of Finance and Economics, said that the fundamental and macro policies that decided the stock market's ups and downs were not related to stock index futures. Even without stock index futures, the current round of decline is inevitable.

In the month, the stock market fell three degrees.

In a May 14th article, the people's Daily said that the stock market's ups and downs had its own law. The article cites many experts' statements as examples.

Prof. He Qiang, director of the securities and Futures Research Institute of Central University of Finance and Economics, has decided that the fundamentals and macro policies, not stock index futures, have determined the stock market's ups and downs. Even without stock index futures, the current round of decline is inevitable. There are many reasons that affect the current stock market decline, such as the Greek debt crisis and other factors, such as the domestic monetary policy and the tight market policy.

"The ups and downs of the stock market have their own rules, and it is unfounded to attribute stock market decline to stock index futures." Yao Xingtao, deputy general manager of Shanghai securities, said.

Haitong Securities senior researcher Yong Zhiqiang said that after the listing of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures, the 4 contract prices are closely related to the stock spot market. There is no such a situation that the stock index futures contract price is out of stock and independent. The price of the stock index futures contract basically follows the trend of the spot index of the stock index, which is also consistent with the initial situation of the overseas stock index futures market.

The timeshare data provided by Yong Zhiqiang show that stocks are on the spot, leading stock index futures instead of stock index futures. Overseas scholars have done a lot of research, the basic conclusion is: in the initial stage of stock index futures, most of them are spot prices to guide futures prices, futures prices lag behind, follow the spot price trend. Only when the nominal transaction volume and the value of the unliquidated contract of the stock index futures exceed the 50% of the trading volume of the spot stock market, or even about 80%, will the price discovery of the stock index futures affect the stock spot market.

Stock index futures are too small, "little ants" can't stumble "A share elephants".

In the end is the futures index affecting the spot, or futures? Kyo Fumiaki said, the market personnel analysis, at present, China's stock index futures funds scale is only 7 billion yuan. The total amount of margin is still less than the total market value of a stock, compared with the A share market with a total market value of about 20 trillion, "small ants" can hardly shake the "elephant" of the stock market.

Through the analysis of the recent stock market and capital market flows and stock, since April 16th, with the setback of China's stock market, the net outflow of stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 shares is about 67 billion 894 million, and in this period, the average stock in the futures market is 1 billion 594 million. Judging from the amount of funds, the behavior of funds in the stock index futures market can not affect the stock market trend. In addition, according to the estimate, about 94.93% of the volume of stock index futures has been trading in trend speculation since the date of stock index futures. This is a relatively slow decline in stock index futures, which has always been the main reason for the spread of positive spreads. This has once again proved that spot futures are pulling down futures rather than pushing futures down. In addition, from the perspective of participants, large organizations are not involved, and the price of stock index is probably small.

In addition, the article also explains whether the huge volume of index futures will have an impact on the stock market. According to professionals, the trading volume of stock index futures is not comparable to that of the stock market. Stock index futures are margin trading, and carry out "T+0" intra day revolving trading. They can be traded several times within the same capital day. All these transactions are nominal, and the nominal transaction volume is normal, though much higher than expected. From overseas markets, for example, in 2009, the nominal turnover of US stock derivatives was 1.20 times that of the stock market, Hongkong was 3.22 times, Korea was 29.70 times, India was 3.07 times, Japan was 1.20 times, Japan was 1.20 times, and Taiwan was 2.10 times. Therefore, the article says such trading volume is not worth making a fuss about.

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