Bull: Not To Lower The Price Regulation, That's The Air Conditioner.

Ren Zhiqiang is also making a big mistake, advocating that "price reduction and cooling down are two different things. It is not to let housing prices fall, but to curb investment demand, so that people with investment needs do not buy houses. The rest of you should buy and buy. Since you want him to buy a house, buy it today and drop it tomorrow, so what will happen to those who buy it?"

You say Ren Zhiqiang is clever. He is also a little smart. He is smart enough to make everyone a fool. You say he is stupid. He is stupid enough.

This regulation is mainly to curb the excessive rise of housing prices in some cities and curb speculation in the property market.

But Ren Zhiqiang did not respect a basic fact. That is, some cities whose prices are rising too fast are basically investment needs. If you curb this demand, no one will buy a house.

This is a common sense.

This common sense tells us that as long as the property market has cooled down, it will also cut prices, because no price is reduced, no one can buy it, and no one can afford it.

It is two different things to talk about price reduction and cooling down.

In fact, the current market trend is the same. Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen have been implementing since the promulgation of the 11 article of the state since May 1st.

Shanghai has 181 sales flats, and nearly 50 do not have any turnover. 32 of them are sold on the basis of price reduction. Although the average overall price has not been cut, the trend has shown that more and more property prices are being depreciated. Once more than 90 real estate prices are cut, it is the overall price reduction.

The sale of more than 90 properties is in June for Shanghai.

Shenzhen has seen an overall decline. The trend in Beijing is almost the same as in Shanghai.

Therefore, cooling is the forerunner of price reduction, and price reduction is inevitable after cooling down.

Ren Zhiqiang's lack of logic led to a lack of common sense: "now that you want him to buy a house and buy it tomorrow, what will it be?" who is this question? Is it not asking the prime minister? When the prime minister will not answer this question, let me tell you what commodity is. Goods are used to exchange labor products. They have two factors or two attributes of use value and value, reflecting certain social production relations.

All commodities do not exclude two possibilities of price rise and price reduction. No commodity in the world only rises in price and does not depreciate.

You can increase the basic money supply to drive up house prices as you did in 2009, but the consequences will be the collapse of China's economy and social upheaval.

Finally, who will clean up this chicken feather? You Ren Zhiqiang must not be qualified.

It is well known that commodity prices are affected by the relationship between supply and demand.

No matter what method is adopted, as long as the demand is curbed, the price will drop.

The so-called regulation, including the rules of the 11 countries and other cities, is to curb demand, of course, mainly to curb investment demand, and investment demand is also the biggest demand to promote housing prices, curb investment demand, basically curb the demand for the entire property market.

And now the supply of the property market is increasing. The main property of the property market is the acquisition of residential land before 2008, although there are still many hoarding sites and land kings not offering products.

Judging from the situation in 2009, the national real estate development enterprises completed the land acquisition area of 319 million 60 thousand square meters, a decrease of 18.9% over the previous year, and completed the land development area of 230 million 60 thousand square meters, down 19.9%.

Although the two data are declining, they are more than the magnitude of the decline in demand in 2010.

Because in 2010 1 to May, sales of real estate dropped by at least 30%, and some cities dropped by 50%. Compared with the supply in 2009, the situation of over supply will not change for five years.

From 1 to April 2010, the national investment in real estate development was 993 billion 200 million yuan, an increase of 36.2% over the same period last year, of which 685 billion 400 million yuan was invested in commercial housing, an increase of 34% over the same period last year, accounting for 69% of the proportion of real estate development investment.

1-4 months, the national real estate development enterprises housing construction area of 2 billion 646 million square meters, an increase of 31.7% over the same period; new housing construction area 457 million square meters, an increase of 64.1%; housing completed area of 150 million 200 thousand square meters, an increase of 13.5% over the same period, of which, the completion area of residential 120 million 280 thousand square meters, 10.8% growth.

1-4 months, the national real estate development enterprises completed land acquisition area of 91 million 830 thousand square meters, an increase of 26.4% over the same period, the land acquisition fee of 191 billion 200 million yuan, an increase of 66% over the same period.

The above data also fully show that demand is dropping sharply while supply is growing fast.

What do you do to raise prices? In addition to commercial housing, the central government, whatever its purpose, will complete 4 trillion of the social security housing supply plan to the people in the stimulus plan. Last year, 32% of the investment was completed, and all investment must be completed this year, and the supply of subsequent guaranteed housing will increase.

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Cattle knife: the volume of turnover during May 1 is another turning point in housing prices.

In May 2nd, the volume of new premises in Shenzhen was only 7 units, with the average price below 20 thousand yuan / square meter.

In May 3rd, 1 new houses were sold.

Many people may not know Shenzhen housing prices during the May 1 period, only 7 sets of pactions, 1 sets of what is the concept, compared to August 21, 2008, the Shenzhen property market volume of 5 sets, followed by 12 sets, 18 sets, 9 sets, since then, Shenzhen speculators and developers are unable to bear, have been selling prices, and some real estate prices continue to increase, or even broke through 50%.

From the trend, the first is the reversal of the relationship between supply and demand of the property market.

The people who go to the building are still there, but there are not many buyers.

Moreover, prices do not drop to a reasonable price, and there is no real hand in hand. The buyers and sellers in the market are stuck first, then converted, and then go to the buyer's market, and prices begin to drop sharply.

This process is usually 1 to 3 months.

Second, the seller's market began to break wait-and-see.

This wait-and-see mentality is broken up by the central bank to raise the deposit reserve ratio. The central bank sends a signal to the market: don't support it.

Therefore, the volume of turnover during the May 1 period is another turning point in China's housing prices.

Bull: the sharp fall in house prices is clear or slump.

No one knows what they are going to face.

But in fact, they hold a purpose, that is, house prices are down, and local governments have to rely on land to sell money. The central government is now talking about green GDP but GDP.

Therefore, after the housing price drops by 30%, it will usher in another round of inflation.

Yes, this is the typical mentality of speculators in China's property market.

But is it possible?

In Shanghai, all developers participating in the housing show are self mockery: this year is one of the least low-carbon exhibitions.

The reason why the most low carbon is no doubt that the cost is very high and the income is very small, because this year developers have a fashionable term called low carbon, so this exhibition is called low carbon exhibitions.

After the exhibition, the news media did not report as loudly as they did in previous years, but this year there is only one word: miserable!

Last year, developers did not reduce prices. This year, they are not paying prices.

Just look at it, not ready to buy it.

When many networks are doing surveys, they ask, do you think house prices will drop this year?

Basically, the red pillar is soaring to the sky, pointing directly to 70%, one word: Yes.

Ask again, will you buy a house this year?

The same red column, 70% points, two words: do not buy.

Also, how much do you think house prices will drop this year?

The three option: 10%, 30%, 50%, the result is that the answer will fall 50% to 80%.

The general situation of the first tier cities has been fixed. It is definitely not a question of 30% reduction. On the trend, the first is the reversal of the relationship between supply and demand of the property market.

The market is strongly repairing the seriously distorted value form of speculation and pushing prices back to their due price.

So there are still people who go to the building, but not many buyers.

Moreover, prices do not drop to a reasonable price, and there is no real hand. Buyers and sellers are first stuck, then converted, and then to the buyer's market, where prices begin to fall sharply.

This process usually takes one to three months.

Second, the seller's market began to break wait-and-see.

This wait-and-see mentality is broken up by the central bank to raise the deposit reserve ratio. This is a silent greeting. The central bank sends a signal to the market: don't support it.

Why not?

Because the original purchase is mainly caused by the floating currency, now the central bank has to recycle it bit by bit. This kind of recycling is like a dull knife for the developers and the speculators. The developers say they are boiling the frog in warm water. Actually, they are cutting the meat with a blunt knife.

Third, house prices are unbridled wild horses that are hard to tame when prices are soaring.

This trend is irresistible.

This is not inertia, but state of affairs. It is very important to recognize this situation. He will avoid many people's wealth being washed away by floods, and thus converge into great power.

In jargon, a speculator will be poured out.

There is a huge thrust behind it, that is, the increase in interest rates, property taxes, and the supply of affordable housing.

Therefore, do not underestimate the shortage of turnover during the May 1 period. This is another turning point for Chinese housing prices to turn around. This time it turns out that it is not W or V, but L.

Three years, five years, eight years and ten years, it is hard to say, I think it is ten years.