Frequent Occurrence Of Natural Disasters &Nbsp; Cotton And Other Agricultural Production Situation Is Not Optimistic.

In the first 3 months of 2010, China's agricultural production was in good condition. The intentional planting area of spring sowing crops increased steadily. The production of livestock production was generally stable, and the number of live pigs decreased slightly. The production of laying hens was stable, the dairy industry maintained a momentum of recovery and development, and fishery production grew steadily, and the major animal and animal epidemic situation was basically stable.

The agricultural products market is running normally, and the supply of main agricultural products such as grain, live pigs and fresh agricultural products is adequate. The prices of grain and cotton have steadily increased, pork prices have continued to fall, and the prices of fresh agricultural products such as vegetables fluctuated seasonally.

Imports of agricultural products increased and trade deficit increased significantly.

But this year, the continuous drought in Southwest China and the continued low temperature in the northern region have caused great difficulties in agricultural production, which not only caused losses in summer crops, but also in many places because of the lack of water for spring crops.

The agricultural production situation is not optimistic.

I. operation of agricultural industry

1. agricultural production

According to the agricultural deployment in 2010, the planting area in 2010 was stable over 1 billion 600 million mu.

The sowing area of cotton will continue to decrease. It is estimated that the cotton planting area in 2010 will be 72 million 600 thousand mu, 2.3% lower than that of last year. The oil sown area is basically stable, and the sown area is expected to be 207 million mu, of which the rapeseed sowing area is 109 million mu, a decrease of 0.6%. The planting area of sugar is increased, and the sowing area is 29 million 920 thousand mu, up 4.1%, of which the growth of sugarcane area is 2.9%, and the area of Sugarbeet grows by 13.3%.

In the first quarter, the output of pigs, cattle and sheep and poultry was 21 million 40 thousand tons, an increase of 4.7% over the same period, of which pork output was 14 million 270 thousand tons, an increase of 5.2%.

According to the industrial safety database direct reporting system monitoring, in the first 3 months of this year, 157 key monitoring products in the agroforestry industry, the cumulative output of 30.37% products decreased year by year, the cumulative output of 47.13% products increased year-on-year; the cumulative sales volume of 31.21% products decreased year by year, and the cumulative output of 40.13% products increased by the same proportion.

2., prices of agricultural products have steadily increased.

In the first quarter, the price of agricultural products (the price of agricultural products producers directly sold their products) rose 6.7% over the same period, or 12.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year, 6.4 percentage points higher than the first quarter agricultural means of production price index.

Purchase price of raw grain.

In the first quarter, the purchasing price level of Japonica rice was significantly higher than that of the same period last year, due to the impact of disaster reduction in Northeast China, the impact of drought in Southwest China, and the tight supply of Japonica rice market.

In the 1~3 months, the purchase price of rice, wheat and corn increased by 8.4%, 10.2% and 21.9% respectively over the same period last year.

The retail price of finished grain has been pushed up.

The increase of grain purchase price promoted the retail price of finished grain.

In the first quarter, the average retail prices of early indica rice, late indica rice, japonica rice, standard flour and Fu Qiang powder in 36 large and medium-sized cities increased by 6.3%, 5%, 11.6%, 5.3% and 6.3% respectively compared with the same period last year.

According to the direct report system of industrial safety database, in the first 3 months of this year, the wholesale prices of 92 kinds of agricultural products that could be counted up all increased in 157 key agricultural products.

3. increase imports and expand trade deficit by 163.8%

Since the beginning of this year, the price of wheat and rice in the international market has been decreasing month by month, and the price of corn has been lowered and stabilized.

In the first quarter, the trade volume of China's agricultural products was 25 billion 500 million US dollars, an increase of 36.1% over the same period last year.

Among them, exports amounted to 10 billion 320 million US dollars, an increase of 22.1%, and imports of US $15 billion 180 million, an increase of 47.5%.

The trade deficit was $4 billion 860 million, an increase of 163.8% over the same period last year.

In imported products, wheat imports increased rapidly, and imports 373 thousand tons, an increase of 208% over the same period last year.

Cotton imports 940 thousand tons, an increase of 229.7%; imports amounted to 1 billion 510 million US dollars, an increase of 316.2%.

Oil and vegetable oil imports slowed down, with soybean imports 11 million 36 thousand tons, an increase of 8.7% over the same period, and 358 thousand tons of rapeseed imports, down 42.8% from the same period last year.

The trade deficit of livestock products expanded. In the first quarter, the export volume of livestock products was 930 million US dollars, an increase of 15.4% over the same period last year. The import volume was US $2 billion 80 million, an increase of 49.6% over the same period last year. The trade deficit was 1 billion 150 million US dollars, an increase of 97% over the same period last year.

From the point of view of exporting countries, the main export markets for agricultural products in the first quarter were Japan, ASEAN, the European Union, the United States and Hongkong, China. Their exports were 1 billion 920 million US dollars, 1 billion 460 million US dollars, 1 billion 440 million US dollars, US $1 billion 150 million and US $920 million respectively, up 19.6%, 26%, 18.5%, 9.3% and 15.4% respectively.

From the point of view of importing countries, the main source of imports of agricultural products in the first quarter was the United States, ASEAN, the European Union, Australia and India. The imports were 6 billion 90 million US dollars, 2 billion 600 million US dollars, 960 million US dollars, US $820 million and us $810 million respectively, up 43.9%, 60.4%, 49.4%, 73.5% and 478.7% respectively.

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Two, problems facing the agricultural industry

1. abnormal climatic conditions cause great difficulties to agricultural production.

At present, the most prominent problem facing agricultural production is the abnormal climatic conditions. Agricultural disasters frequently occur again and again. The uncertainty of weather conditions is bigger and bigger, which causes great difficulties for agricultural production.

The severe drought in Southwest China has a serious impact on agricultural production.

According to the Ministry of agriculture's agricultural dispatch, the five provinces (regions and cities) of Southwest China suffered from heavy drought area of 73 million 450 thousand mu, and most of them were destroyed.

Drought caused serious losses of spring crops such as rape and wheat, and sugarcane and some perennial coffee, mulberry trees and other plants suffered extensive drought.

It is estimated that Yunnan, Guizhou and Guangxi will lose 3 billion 780 million kg of grain and about 400000 tons of rapeseed.

The continuous low temperature in the northern winter wheat region poses a real threat to the production of summer grain; there are more precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and Huaihe River and continue to suffer from low temperature and low temperature. Serious waterlogging is also found in some places, which is not conducive to the growth and development of wheat and rape. Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and other places are suffering from a rare cold wave and snow disaster. Livestock feed is difficult.

2. the price of agricultural means of production has risen, and the cost of production has increased.

Because of the rising price of agricultural means of production such as fertilizers, pesticides and agricultural films, the cost of agricultural production has increased directly.

Feed prices rose more than 20% over the beginning of the year, which also had a certain impact on pig production.

3. pig prices continue to decline, stable development is facing challenges.

According to the monitoring by the development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of agriculture, the prices of live pigs, piglets and pork have decreased for 14 weeks, 15 weeks and 13 weeks respectively. In April 7th, the national pig grain price ratio dropped to 5: 1, and the profit and loss balance point was 10 weeks below 6: 1.

Pig production is losing money, farmers' enthusiasm for production has been seriously frustrated, farmers have stepped up hurdles, the columns are not active, stabilizing and protecting pig production capacity, and preventing pig production from rising and falling.

4. decline in production and increase in demand and increase in domestic cotton supply and demand gap

In 2009, affected by weak market, policy adjustment and climate factors, cotton production area and cotton output decreased in the main cotton producing areas of China.

In 2009, the area of cotton planting in China was 74 million 250 thousand mu, down 14% compared with the same period last year. In 2010, the cotton planting area decreased by 2.3% to 72 million 600 thousand mu in 2010, and the cotton production in the 2009/2010 year was 6 million 400 thousand tons, down 14.6% compared with the same period last year, and the demand will reach 10 million 179 thousand tons, with a gap of about 3 million 700 thousand tons.

5., many factors push up the price of agricultural products.

This year, some agricultural products and vegetables are running at a high price. Among them, the price of Coix rose by more than 100% over the same period, and the price of red bean rose by 50% compared with that of the previous year. The price of black soybeans increased by 100% compared with that of the previous year, and the price of millet increased by 25% over the same period last year.

Garlic prices are rising several times.

Analysis of the main factors that push up prices are: first, weather factors, which affect crop production and affect supply.

The two is the rising cost. The annual increase in grain purchase price has raised the bottom cost of the food industry chain, while the cost of food and food production, processing, pportation and warehousing is rising, which will eventually reflect the price of downstream terminals.

Three, the demand for high-end products is increasing. With the improvement of people's income level, the requirements for the safety, environmental protection and quality of food and food are raised. The middle and high end people can afford the raise of quality brand food and food.

Four, a large number of hot money is entering, which will help to boost the price of agricultural products.