BELLE International Fell Two Days &Nbsp; Downgrade "Neutral"

UBS will

BELLE shares fell two days, losing 50 antennas this morning, reporting $10.22, or 3.77%.

Supplement:

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The development prospect of medium and high grade brand shoes is broad.

With the improvement of fashion awareness and consumption ability of urban white-collar women, the demand for brand women's shoes is also rising significantly.

It is predicted that the future women's shoes market, especially the high-end brand and fashion women's shoes market, will have broad room for development.

In addition, from the market concentration of women's shoes industry, it is still in a relatively dispersed stage, but signs of integration have gradually emerged, and the market share of the ten major women's shoes brands is expanding.

Channel expansion speed up, will soon enter a period of rapid growth.

The development of department stores and listing financing provide favorable opportunities and financial guarantee for company's channel expansion.

The company plans to open 300 stores and more than 500 new stores in 2010 and 2011 respectively, that is to say, by the end of 2011, the number of self operated stores will be nearly doubled in 09 years.

Internal management needs to be further improved.

At present, the company has certain advantages in management and management, mainly in the vertically integrated business mode, the Trinity research and development system, and the rapid reaction management mechanism.

However, compared with the industry leader BELLE international, the inventory control, logistics and information system construction and bargaining power of upstream suppliers remain to be further improved.

Short term cost pressure is greater.

Due to the rapid expansion of the company's channel, it is expected that the short term cost pressure is larger.

It comes mainly from the increase in wages and benefits, advertising expenses and other expenses of salesmen.

In addition, the corporate income tax has been expired and the tax rate has increased from 12.5% to 25%, and the corresponding increase in income tax is about 25 million this year.

Investment suggestion: from the sales situation of the first quarter of the company, the revenue increased by 31.31%, mainly from the endogenous growth brought by the increase of single store sales.

Annual revenue growth is expected to be around 30%-40%.

Considering that the short-term cost pressure is bigger, this year's performance growth will be lower than the income growth rate, but from the 11 year, it is expected to enter the fast lane of growth.

It is estimated that the EPS in the 10-11 year is 0.47 yuan and 0.65 yuan respectively, corresponding to 31 times and 22 times PE.

From the PE point of view, the short-term valuation level is basically reasonable and is temporarily given "overweight" rating.

From the perspective of market value, the company still has a big gap compared with BELLE international and Daphne and other footwear companies. Of course, this is related to the company's current size and growth stage, but at the same time, it also reflects that the company has great room for growth in the future. Therefore, it is recommended to pay attention to it for a long time.