A Number Of Policies In The Second Half Of The Year To Stabilize The Situation.

　　 Since June 25th, The State Council The responsible person was spent in continuous research and conferences. On June 28th and 29, the State Council held a symposium on economic situation, pointing out that we should focus on promoting economic restructuring, institutional reform and transformation of economic development mode. In from July 1st to 3rd, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council held a symposium on the economic situation of the three provinces of Hubei, Hunan and Guangdong in Changsha, and again pointed out the importance and urgency of structural adjustment.

In the past week, domestic and foreign organizations have expected that the intensive research and conference of the State Council is the prelude to the final judgment of the economic situation in the first half of the decision making and the decision of the macro-control direction in the second half of the year. In the second half of this year, China will shift its macro focus to "structural adjustment".

Complex situation highlights the problem of "structure"

The State Council held that the economic situation in the second half of the year was "the most complex". Experts and scholars said in an interview that the complexity of economic expectations is reflected in three aspects: the domestic economic slowdown, the unclear effects of early policies, and the unpredictable world economic prospects.

In July 2nd, the US Wall Street analysts almost agreed that the economic recovery in the US and Europe is still fragile because of the disappointing US report on non farm employment released in June. As a result, the New York stock market continued to fall, and the Dow Jones index fell for the seventh consecutive trading day, the longest decline since October 10, 2008.

The previous day, the Ministry of National Information Center forecast the latest China Economic Prosperity Monitoring and early warning report that the world economic growth rate will slow down. Under the dual role of weakening external demand and raising base, China's export growth will come down. Therefore, the main economic indicators and economic prosperity index will continue to fall.

The latest China Economic Quarterly released by the world bank believes that China's economic growth will decline from 2010 to 2020, but it will remain at a fairly high level. Morgan chase analyst told reporters that policy tightening is guiding China's economic slowdown, and China's slowdown will spread to Asia and even the global economy. In addition, the growth rate of global industrial production in the second half of 2010 is expected to slow to 6%, although this growth rate is still very strong, but it is only half that of the first half of the year.

"The complexity of the economic situation is more evident in the early stage of the regulatory effect is not entirely obvious, and the structural problems of the economy are further apparent." The State Council Development Research Center researcher said.

Since the financial crisis, the "growth guarantee" measures have stimulated economic growth, but also made structural problems in China's economic operation exposed. This year, the problem of irrational economic structure is even more serious. Due to the two aspects of internal and external environment, the uncertainty of China's economic situation is increasing. Monetary policy is hard to get rid of by slowing economic growth and suppressing inflation expectations, and the administrative policy is stretched.

　　 Inside and outside shape Shift the focus of gravity

"The internal and external situation needs China's economy to face up to structural adjustment bravely, and it will be passive and costly at the same time." Wang Jian, Secretary General of China macroeconomics society, told reporters.

Wang Jian believes that since the second half of 2008, the Chinese government has been able to guide the Chinese economy to take the lead in rebounding, mainly on two measures. First, the sharp expansion of investment demand has led to a sharp contraction in export demand, so the contribution of investment in last year's economic growth has exceeded 85%. The two is by nearly 10 trillion yuan of credit.

However, before the outbreak of the debt crisis, China's economy has already formed a background of overproduction. Under such a background, we continue to increase investment. Although we can rely on a new round of investment expansion to stimulate growth in a certain period of time, in the period of release of production capacity, the original production surplus contradictions will not only be eased but intensified.

Experts from the national development and Reform Commission's macro research institute believe that there is a contradiction between China's economic structure and weak domestic demand and overdraft of domestic demand. In the first two months, the expected growth of China's exports is hard to believe that, after being restrained by the cyclical effect of durable goods consumption, the space for China's auto consumption and household appliances consumption to continue to exceed the speed limit under the policy stimulus is not large enough. In addition, in terms of industrial structure, there is also a disharmonious contradiction between overcapacity and upgrading of traditional industries and revitalization of new industries.

Zhou Jingtong, an International Finance Research Institute of the Bank of China, said that in the next 10 years, the trend of traditional power decay, including investment, export and demographic dividend, is inevitable. China's economy will enter the era of low and medium speed growth, requiring all sectors of society to take precautions, enhance the transformation of development mode, adjust the consciousness and initiative of economic structure, and avoid falling into the "middle-income trap".

The external situation is equally pressing. "After the crisis, some countries will rise in the world economic structure and some will fall. An important reason is that different countries have different levels of acuity and speed of action on industrial commanding heights. An analyst at the world bank's China office thinks so.

In late June, the United States Obama The government once again identified the three major industrial breakthroughs after the crisis, smart grid, new energy and energy efficiency. In response to the economic development after the crisis, Japan's and South Korean governments in Asia have recently announced that they are committed to expanding new growth drivers, including further readjust their energy consumption structure and foster green industries.

A hundred year plan needs to cross the watershed.

Academics and experts told reporters optimistically that "China's economy is on the cutting edge. This watershed is the watershed of policy orientation in the first half and second half of this year, and also a watershed in the policy since the financial crisis, or even a watershed in the past 30 years of reform and opening up and future economic development."

In the past week, some European and American economic analysts have expressed doubts about China's growth, and the use of "Beijing's policy bullets" remains a sign that China's Countermeasures to deal with economic problems are becoming increasingly weak.

Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the State Council Development Research Center, said there was no need to be extremely pessimistic about China's economic development prospects. Tang Min, Deputy Secretary General of the China Development Research Foundation, said: "the goals and environment have changed, and the direction of the use of policy ammunition will change. Now the so-called ammunition is not a stimulus to the economy, but a means to solve a series of economic problems."

In July 2nd, the Ministry of industry and Commerce made it clear that it would use financial and credit funds to guide the textile industry to shift to high-end industries and speed up the pace of industrial upgrading. In June 21st, the people's Bank of China, the China Banking Regulatory Commission, the Securities Regulatory Commission and the CIRC gave some suggestions on further improving the financial services of small and medium-sized enterprises. We should persist in maintaining pressure and clearly supporting key points, and actively promote the healthy development of small and medium-sized enterprises in line with the requirements of the state's industrial policies. Reporters learned from the Ministry of finance that the Ministry of Finance recently formulated the Interim Measures for the management of small and medium-sized enterprises' development funds with local characteristics, standardized and strengthened the management of the development funds of small and medium-sized enterprises with local characteristics, and improved the efficiency of fund utilization.

According to the plan of the SASAC, the central enterprises in 2010 will be reduced to 80 to 100, and at present there are 129 central enterprises, including 86 (including its holding subsidiaries), and the central enterprises will be listed on the A shares, and most of them will be traditional industries, many of which will be included in the excess capacity and require reorganization and integration. In the second half of this year, the SASAC will actively guide the reorganization of enterprises, promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, and accelerate the transformation of the mode of economic development.

Zhang Liqun said, "changing the mode of economic development is a long and complex process, which requires arduous efforts. And "structural adjustment" will undoubtedly become the main theme of the next stage of China's economic development. He said, "the focus of the second half of this year will be to solve the problems of medium and long-term development, and work hard in the reform of income distribution, energy conservation and emission reduction, and institutional reform."

An economist at the State Council forum said to the leadership of the State Council: "now we must cling to our teeth and increase the intensity of structural adjustment under the lowest economic growth that can be sustained. This is a long-lasting plan for China's sustainable development."