China Textile Industry Prosperity Index Report (Two Quarter 2010)

In the two quarter of 2010,

I. overall prosperity

Prosperity: in the two quarter of 2010, the prosperity index of the textile industry in China was 99.4 points (=100 growth in 2003), an increase of 0.9 points over the previous quarter.

It needs to be explained that after the further elimination of random factors, the textile industry boom index is slightly lower (see the blue curve in the textile industry boom index chart), which is 99.3, up 0.4 points over the last quarter.

This explains

In the two quarter of 2010, the prosperity index of the apparel industry in China was 99.2 points (=100 growth rate in 2005), an increase of 0.3 points over the previous quarter.

Excluding seasonal factors and retaining random factors, compared with the previous quarter, the 3 indexes of clothing sales, fixed asset investment and number of employees rose to varying degrees.

In the two quarter of 2010, the garment manufacturing industry prosperity index (see blue curve in the fashion industry climate index chart) was 98.2 points, which was basically the same as last quarter.

In the two quarter of 2010, the prosperity index of the China chemical fiber industry was 100.3 points (the growth rate of =100 in 2005), an increase of 0.7 points over the previous quarter, and has steadily recovered for 4 consecutive quarters.

Compared with the previous quarter, the total profit of chemical fiber industry, product sales revenue, total tax and other indicators have risen to varying degrees.

After further eliminating the random factors, the business climate index of the chemical fiber industry is slightly higher (see the blue curve of the garment manufacturing industry prosperity index chart), which is 100.4 points.

Early warning: the textile industry early warning index remained at the "green light zone".

In the two quarter, the textile industry early-warning index was 110 points, down 3.3 points from the previous quarter.

The chart shows that the textile industry early-warning index has experienced a slight fluctuation in the green light area after a series of rapid rebound in several quarters.

The warning index of chemical fiber industry has dropped significantly.

The early warning index of chemical fiber industry in the two quarter was 116.7 points, down 10 points from the previous quarter.

The chemical fiber industry has been rising since the rebound in the two quarter of last year, but the rebound trend turned to a marked decline in the two quarter of this year.

Business climate index: in the two quarter of 2010, the business climate index of China textile industry was 126.1 points, an increase of 9 points over the previous quarter.

In the two quarter of 2010, the business climate index of China garment manufacturing enterprises was 140.5 points, an increase of 12.1 points over the previous quarter.

In the two quarter of 2010, the business climate index of China chemical fiber industry was 133.9 points, down 5.2 points from the previous quarter.

Lights: in the two quarter of 2010, the early-warning lamp in the textile industry continued to maintain the green light and the industry remained stable.

Among the 10 indicators of textile industry early-warning index (excluding seasonal factors and reservations of random factors), there are 3 indicators in the "red light district", namely, the profit composition index of textile industry, the producer price index of industrial products and the occupied capital of finished products (reverse); there are 5 indicators in the "green light" area, namely, the total export volume of textile industry, the number of employees, the total tax revenue, product sales revenue and accounts receivable (reverse); there are 1 indicators in the "light blue light" area, namely the textile production index; and 1 indicators located in the "blue light district", namely, the fixed assets investment in the textile industry.

It is estimated that in the three quarter of 2010, the profit index of textile industry, the producer price index of industrial products and the occupation of funds for finished products will continue to stay in the "red light district"; the total revenue of textile industry, product sales and receivables (reversal) will be pferred to the "yellow light district"; the total export volume of textile industry and the number of employees will remain in the "green light" area; the textile industry output index will remain in the "blue light area"; the textile industry will continue to invest in fixed assets investment in the "blue light district".

In the two quarter of 2010, the warning light of the garment manufacturing industry was green, indicating that the garment manufacturing industry continued to warm up in the two quarter, and the industry was running well.

Among the 10 indicators of early warning index (excluding seasonal factors and reservations of random factors), there are 1 indicators in the "red light district", that is, the funds occupied by the finished products in garment manufacturing industry (reverse); there are 4 indicators in the "yellow light district", namely, the output of garment manufacturing industry, the producer price index of industrial products, the total profit and the sales revenue of products; there are 3 indicators in the "green area", that is, the total export volume of clothing manufacturing industry, total tax revenue and net receivables (reversals); 1 indicators are located in the "blue light area", that is, the total amount of fixed assets in clothing manufacturing industry; 1 indicators are located in the "blue light district", that is, the number of employees in the garment manufacturing industry. Garment manufacturing industry

It is estimated that in the three quarter of 2010, the capital occupation (reversal) of the finished products in garment manufacturing will remain in the "red light district". The producer price index of industrial products will be pferred to the "red light district". The total output, gross profit and sales revenue of products will continue to stay in the hot yellow area. The total tax collection will be pferred to the "yellow light district" which is hot. The net receivables (reversal) will continue in the "green light district", and the investment in fixed assets will continue to remain in the "cool blue light" area, and the number of garment manufacturing workers will be pferred to the "blue light district".

In the two quarter of 2010, the warning light of the chemical fiber industry in China was changed from the yellow light of the previous season to the green light. In the process of warming up, the industry appeared a stage of callback and entered the normal operation interval. However, the industry early warning index is still at a relatively high level in history.

According to the 10 indicators of the early-warning index of chemical fiber industry (excluding seasonal factors and reservations of random factors), there are 2 indicators in the "red light district", namely, the total export volume of the chemical fiber industry and the producer price index of industrial products; there are 1 indicators in the "yellow light district", that is, the total profit of the chemical fiber industry; there are 7 indicators in the "green light district", that is, the output of the chemical fiber industry, the occupation (reverse) of employees, the capital of finished products, the total tax revenue, the sales revenue of products, the investment in fixed assets and the receivables (reversal).

It is estimated that in the three quarter of 2010, the total export volume of the chemical fiber industry and the producer price index of industrial products will continue to stay in the "red light district". The output of the chemical fiber industry, the total number of employees, the total tax revenue and the investment in fixed assets will be pferred to the "yellow light district" which is too hot. The capital occupied (reverse) of finished products in chemical fiber industry, product sales revenue and accounts receivable (reversal) will remain at the normal "green light district", and the total profit of the chemical fiber industry will continue to remain in the "yellow light district".

Output: textile production index decreased slightly.

In the two quarter of 2010, the textile industry output index was 100 points (the growth rate of =100 in 2003), down 2.3 points from the previous quarter.

Among them, after initial seasonal adjustment, the output of cloth was 13 billion 810 million meters, the ratio of cotton fell by 21.8%, and the output of wool (wool) was 76 thousand tons, a decrease of 15.3% compared with the same period last year, a 24.4% increase in the chain ratio, 132 million 764 thousand meters in woolen production, an increase of 26.4% over the same period last year, a 23.8% increase in the ring ratio, and 26 thousand tons of silk production, a decrease of 43.7% over the same period, and a decrease of 26 thousand over the same period.

After further eliminating the random factors, the textile production index (see blue curve) in the two quarter was 102 points, 1.2 points higher than that in the first quarter, and slightly higher than the yield synthesis index which did not exclude random factors.

Two. Production, operation and investment status

The output of garment manufacturing industry has increased.

After preliminary seasonal adjustment, the output of garment manufacturing industry in the two quarter was 6 billion 850 million, an increase of 80.6% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 10%.

The output of chemical fiber industry increased steadily.

After preliminary seasonal adjustment, the output of chemical fiber industry in the two quarter was 7 million 742 thousand tons, an increase of 12.8% over the same period last year, the growth rate dropped 7 percentage points from the previous quarter, and the growth rate was 4%, with a slight increase in the growth rate.

Employees: at the end of the two quarter of 2010, the textile industry employed 5 million 862 thousand people, an increase of 0.9% over the previous year, and the growth rate was 0.7 percentage points higher than that of the previous quarter.

At the end of the two quarter of 2010, the apparel manufacturing industry employed 4 million 24 thousand people, an increase of 1.5% over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased 0.8 percentage points from the previous quarter.

At the end of the two quarter of 2010, the number of employees in the chemical fiber industry was 420 thousand, an increase of 4% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was basically unchanged from the previous quarter.

Exports: after the initial seasonal adjustment, the total export volume of the textile industry in the two quarter of 2010 was 40 billion 800 million US dollars, up 13.8% from the same period last year. The growth rate dropped by 15.3 percentage points from the previous quarter, a decrease of 14.7% compared to the previous quarter, and the growth rate dropped by 24.3 percentage points over the previous quarter.

In the two quarter of 2010, clothing exports amounted to US $23 billion 570 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.1% compared with the previous quarter. The growth rate dropped by 17.6 percentage points from the previous quarter, and the decline was 25.5%.

After initial seasonal adjustment, the total export volume of the chemical fiber industry was 4 billion 350 million US dollars in the two quarter of 2010, an increase of 30.7% over the same period last year. The growth rate dropped by 24.2 percentage points from the previous quarter, while the growth rate of the chemical fiber industry was 2.4%.

Sales: after initial seasonal adjustment, the sales revenue of textile industry was 657 billion 750 million yuan in the two quarter of 2010, an increase of 25.2% over the same period last year, a slight decrease of 1.2% compared with the previous quarter, a 16.1% increase of the chain, and a 26% increase in the growth rate compared with the previous quarter.

After preliminary seasonal adjustment, the sales revenue of clothing manufacturing industry was 264 billion 990 million yuan in the two quarter of 2010, an increase of 26.1% over the same period last year. The growth rate increased by 2.8% compared with the previous quarter, and the growth rate was 9%, with the growth rate rising 17.7% over the previous quarter.

After preliminary seasonal adjustment, the sales revenue of chemical fiber industry in the two quarter of 2010 was 120 billion 730 million yuan, an increase of 27.7% over the same period last year. The growth rate dropped by 17.3% compared with the previous quarter. The growth rate was 11.7%, and the growth rate was 7% higher than that in the previous quarter.

Total profit: the gross profit of textile industry increased significantly.

After preliminary seasonal adjustment, the total profit of the textile industry in the two quarter of 2010 was 29 billion 240 million yuan, up 60.1% from the same period last year, the growth rate dropped 28.3 percentage points from the previous quarter, and the growth rate was 33.2%.

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In the two quarter of 2010, the total profit realized by garment manufacturing industry was 12 billion 200 million yuan, up 38.9% from the same period last year. The growth rate increased by 12.8 percentage points from the previous quarter, and the ratio of the garment industry decreased by 1.9%.

The total profit of chemical fiber industry has increased.

After preliminary seasonal adjustment, the total profit of the chemical fiber industry in the two quarter of 2010 was 5 billion 720 million yuan, an increase of 1 billion 610 million yuan compared with the previous quarter.

Tax: the total tax revenue of the textile industry increased significantly.

In the two quarter of 2010, the textile industry paid a total tax of 17 billion 380 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.1%, an increase of 15.1 percentage points over the previous quarter, a 15.1 increase of 17.5% over the previous quarter and a 41.4% increase in the growth rate compared with the previous quarter.

The total tax revenue of garment manufacturing industry has decreased.

In the two quarter of 2010, the apparel industry turned over to tax revenue of 7 billion 260 million yuan, up 27.4% from the same period last year. The growth rate increased by 1.8 percentage points compared with the previous quarter, while the growth rate decreased by 16.2%.

The total tax revenue of chemical fiber industry increased slightly.

After preliminary seasonal adjustment, the chemical fiber industry paid 1 billion 750 million yuan in the two quarter of 2010, an increase of 10.1% compared to the same period last year, representing a 4.7 percentage point decrease from the previous quarter, a 7.1% increase in the chain and a 0.6 percentage point increase over the previous quarter.

Investment: the investment in fixed assets of textile industry increased significantly.

After initial seasonal adjustment, the fixed assets investment in the textile industry in the two quarter of 2010 was 53 billion 700 million yuan, an increase of 14.8% over the same period last year. The growth rate dropped by 17 percentage points from the previous quarter, and the growth rate was 152.5%. The growth rate of the chain rose by 207.8 percentage points over the previous quarter.

The fixed assets investment in garment manufacturing increased sharply.

After initial seasonal adjustment, the fixed assets investment in garment manufacturing industry in the two quarter of 2010 was 31 billion 520 million yuan, an increase of 18.7% over the same period last year. The growth rate dropped by 2 percentage points from the previous quarter, and the growth rate was 140.2%, an increase of 193 percentage points over the previous quarter.

The investment in fixed assets of chemical fiber industry increased significantly.

After initial seasonal adjustment, in the two quarter of 2010, the fixed assets investment in the chemical fiber industry was 8 billion 690 million yuan, an increase of 33.7% over the same period last year, the growth rate increased by 50.8% over the previous quarter, and the annulus growth rate was 140.6%, a growth rate of 189.5 percentage points higher than that of the previous quarter.

Price: factory price index of textile industry continued to rise.

In the two quarter of 2010, the ex factory price index of textile industry was 107.5 points (=100 in the same period last year), an increase of 1.9 points over the previous quarter.

The producer price index of industrial products in garment manufacturing industry has increased.

In the two quarter of 2010, the producer price index for apparel manufacturing industry was 101.8 points (=100 in the same period last year), an increase of 0.6 points over the previous quarter.

The ex factory price index of chemical fiber industry is flat.

In the two quarter of 2010, the ex factory price index of chemical fiber industry was 115.5 points (=100 in the same period last year), unchanged from the previous quarter.

Accounts receivable: at the end of the two quarter of 2010, the accounts receivable of the textile industry was 169 billion 930 million yuan, up 11.6% from the same period last year, and the growth rate increased 0.8 percentage points from the previous quarter.

At the end of the two quarter of 2010, the net receivables of garment manufacturing industry amounted to 77 billion 900 million yuan, up 15.6% from the same period last year, and the growth rate increased 5.8 percentage points from the previous quarter.

At the end of the two quarter of 2010, the net accounts receivable of chemical fiber industry was 20 billion 810 million yuan, an increase of 19.8% over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased 11.9 percentage points from the previous quarter.

The capital expenditure of finished products: at the end of the two quarter of 2010, the expenditure of finished products in textile industry was 109 billion 70 million yuan, down 2.5% from the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped 0.5 percentage points from the previous quarter.

The capital expenditure of apparel manufacturing industry increased.

At the end of the two quarter of 2010, the expenditure of finished products in clothing manufacturing industry was 45 billion 590 million yuan, an increase of 0.7% over the same period last year.

The occupied capital of chemical fiber industry continued to increase.

At the end of the two quarter of 2010, the occupied capital of finished products in chemical fiber industry was 23 billion 620 million yuan, an increase of 36.6% over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased 15 percentage points from the previous quarter.

Loss side: the loss of the textile industry has been narrowed.

In the two quarter of 2010, the loss of the textile industry was 16.7%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points, and the coverage of the deficit companies had narrowed.

After preliminary seasonally adjusted, the loss in the textile industry was 1 billion 630 million yuan in the two quarter of 2010, down 35.7% from the same period last year.

The loss in garment manufacturing industry dropped by nearly 30%.

In the two quarter of 2010, the garment manufacturing industry suffered a loss of 21.7%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points, and a slight increase in the coverage of deficit companies.

After preliminary seasonal adjustment, the loss of garment manufacturing enterprises in the two quarter of 2010 was 870 million yuan, down 28.6% from the same period last year.

The loss of chemical fiber industry has decreased by more than 70%.

In the two quarter of 2010, the loss of the chemical fiber industry enterprises was 14.6%, a decrease of 5.9 percentage points, and the coverage of the loss making enterprises was significantly reduced.

After a preliminary seasonal adjustment, the loss of enterprises in the chemical fiber industry was 220 million yuan in the two quarter, a decrease of 550 million yuan from the previous quarter and a decrease of 71%.

Three, expectations and recommendations

1. development expectations

In the two quarter of 2010, the boom of the textile industry continued to rise in the first quarter. It is expected that the production and operation of the textile industry will further improve in the three quarter of 2010.

Specifically, there are several main reasons:

First, China's macroeconomic environment and the implementation of a series of industrial policies have provided favorable external conditions for the development of the textile industry.

In particular, the implementation of the strong domestic demand market and the implementation of the textile industry adjustment and revitalization plan has provided endogenous impetus for the rapid development of the textile industry.

At the same time, some industry related policies also gradually show the effect of the industry development, and will continue to promote the long-term and healthy development of the textile industry in the long run.

For example, the State Council's notice on Further Strengthening the elimination of backward production capacity further illustrates the necessity for the textile industry to eliminate backward production capacity and promote technological innovation; and the guiding opinions on advancing the textile industry pfer point out that the textile industry in the eastern region should be encouraged to optimize and upgrade, and some manufacturing links will be pferred to the central and western regions, so as to reduce costs and improve the competitiveness of the industry.

This series of policies and measures will drive the textile industry to continue to develop well.

Under the favorable situation of our textile enterprises' order, we still need to soberly see many problems affecting the healthy development of the industry. For example, the progress of optimizing the industrial structure and technological innovation still needs to be vigorously promoted. The rising price of raw materials and the upgrading of international trade protectionism will bring pressure to the further development of the textile industry.

In the second half of the year, industry and enterprises should focus on dealing with the uncertainties arising from economic development and the rising prices of raw materials, and continue to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the industry.

2. related suggestions

First of all, the industry should speed up the pformation of the mode of economic development and continue to do a good job in eliminating backward production capacity and scientific and technological innovation.

In order to ensure the goal of eliminating backward production capacity, the textile industry should seize the main links, breakthroughs in key and difficult points, and further establish and improve a long-term mechanism to eliminate backward production capacity.

At the same time, the industry must further increase the readjustment of the industrial structure and improve the quality and efficiency of economic growth.

Secondly, textile enterprises should be encouraged to pfer orderly.

About 80% of China's textile industry concentrated in coastal provinces and cities, and over 85% of the total industrial output value was realized in the eastern region, while raw materials and labor were mainly distributed in the central and western regions, forming a situation of unreasonable allocation of production factors and production capacity.

To increase the support for industrial pfer, we should give full play to the guiding role of regional policies and make full use of the existing policies such as the rise of the central part of the country, the development of the western region, and the revitalization of the old industrial base in the northeast, so as to support the textile industry pfer project.

At the same time, we should also innovate the regional cooperation mode, encourage the eastern region to strengthen cooperation with the central and western regions, explore the construction of textile industrial parks or gathering areas in the central and western regions in accordance with the principle of complementary advantages and sharing interests, support the merger and reorganization of enterprises in Eastern and western regions, and optimize industrial resources.

Notes:

(1) textile industry includes textile industry, garment manufacturing industry and chemical fiber industry.

Among them, the textile industry only refers to the major categories of textile industry in the classification of the national economy, excluding the production of chemical fiber and clothing manufacturing in the broad textile industry; the clothing manufacturing industry refers to the textile and garment manufacturing industry in the classification of the national economy, which refers to the activities of tailoring tailor made men's and women's garments and children's garments, including garments made of non self produced raw materials and clothing made in fixed production areas, and the chemical fiber industry in the classification of the national economy.

2. In 2003, the early-warning lamp in the textile industry was basically in the green light area, and was relatively stable. Therefore, it became the base year of China textile industry's prosperity index.

3. Random factors are also referred to as irregularities, such as the implementation of new policies, macroeconomic regulation and control, natural disasters and other factors.

(4) in 2005, the early-warning lights of the garment manufacturing industry were basically in the green light area, relatively stable, and therefore became the base year of the prosperity index of the garment manufacturing industry.

Seasonal factors refer to the effect of seasons alternation on data, for example, the market volume of cold drinks fluctuates year by year with the temperature of the four seasons.

In 2005, the early-warning light signals in chemical fiber industry were basically in the green light area, relatively stable, so they were the base year of the prosperity index of the China chemical fiber industry.

Reversal index, also called reverse index, has a reverse effect on the operation of the industry.

The lower the index value is, the better the industry is, and vice versa.

Preliminary seasonal adjustment refers to the elimination of factors such as Spring Festival holidays, and does not exclude the effects of irregular elements.

The lamp number diagram shows that the early warning lamp number is the state of some important indicators that describe the development of the industry by means of traffic lights. The red light is too fast (overheating), the yellow light is fast (partial heat), the green light is normal and stable, the light blue lamp shows slow (partial cold), the blue light indicates too slow (undercooling), and the different index is given to the single indicator lamp, and the comprehensive warning index aggregated by it is also shown by the 5 lamp areas, meaning the same as above.

(China Economic Prosperity Index Research Center, National Bureau of statistics, China Economic Prosperity Monitoring Center)