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China'S Exchange Rate Reform &Nbsp; Domestic Service Industry Most Benefit?

2010/8/14 14:54:00 28

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The data show that China's service industry

Development

Serious lag.

A careful analysis of the growth path of the service industry in the past 30 years is mainly caused by the two stagnation of development.

The two stagnation is accompanied by a significant depreciation of the renminbi.

By the end of 2009, China

Service industry

The share of GDP is 42.6%.

What is the concept? The average level in the world over the same period is about 70%, and the high and middle income countries reach 73% and 60% respectively, while the share of low and low income countries is about 45%.

That is to say, the development level of service industry in China is lower than that in low income countries.

From the perspective of countries, developed countries such as the United States, Britain and France have reached nearly 80% respectively. Our neighbouring countries, Japan and South Korea, are about 70% and 60%, respectively. Among BRICs, Brazil, Russia and India respectively reach 66%, 59% and 54.6%.

The population of India is the most comparable to us, with only about half of our per capita income, but the proportion of the service sector in gross domestic product is 12 percentage points higher than ours.

The meaning of this set of data is that the development level of China's service industry is lagging behind in absolute or relative terms.

The gap between these 12 percentage points left us with much room for imagination.

Assuming that the output value of the first, second industry is given and the output value of the service industry is increased to reach the proportion of India, the output value of the service industry needs to increase by about 60%, and the per capita income will increase by about 26%.

In other words, taking the proportion of India's service industry as the standard, China's income level has been lowered by 1/4 because of the lagging development of the service industry.

This simple estimate shows that the development of China's service industry may bring about revenue growth, which does not take into account that the development of service industry will further promote the development of the first, second industry in turn, so the actual potential will be greater.

Of course, data should not be trusted.

The difference between statistical error and statistical caliber exists forever.

enterprise

There are also differences in form.

However, the gap between China and other countries is so huge that it can not be fully explained by statistical factors.

Even though the proportion of China's service sector has increased by 5 percentage points, this proportion is still very low, and the service industry is still very low.

Development

The judgement of serious lag is still established.

After careful study of historical data, we find that there have been two significant interruptions in the growth path of China's service industry over the past 30 years, and the proportion has not risen or fallen.

The first phase was from 1992 to 1996, with the service sector falling from 34.8% to 32.8%, and the other from 2002 to 2008, from 41.5% to 40%.

The two period added up to 10 years, accounting for 1/3 times from 1980 to now. During this period, the proportion of the service industry decreased by 3.5 percentage points, with an average annual decrease of 0.35 percentage points.