Can Viscose Staple Fiber Ushered In "Winter Sunshine"?

Recently, the long viscose staple fiber has begun to show. After a period of decline, at present Viscose The price of staple fiber has stabilized, ending the "Misery" of 3000 yuan in November. With the worst of the past, the overall market of chemical fiber industry has been slightly warmer. Viscose staple fiber has been transported and upgraded in this good "hotbed", ending the low price of 15500 yuan. As of December 15th, the mainstream negotiated price in the market was 16000 yuan, up 28.1% compared with November. The market mentality of viscose staple fiber varies greatly. On the one hand, the macro market is warming. On the other hand, the downstream fabric market is more mindless. Viscose staple fiber in this warm East, cold embarrassment in the west, whether it can enter the road of recovery? Below, the author analyzes these two aspects:

Macro market recovery heating device resumption

Recently, the macro market has "breathed" and swept away the past haze. international market The just concluded EU Summit It gave the European debt crisis a shot in the arm, so that European countries that had already been "sick" caught the last straw. Although the implementation of the new policy can not restore market confidence absolutely, however, the long-standing unity atmosphere in the euro area and even the European Union can still alleviate the crisis of confidence in the financial market, which is an exciting news for China's textile export industry. In addition, in the domestic market, the RMB began to depreciate under the background of global economic recession and slowing domestic economic growth. Moreover, the central bank's reduction of the deposit reserve ratio is a good news for all small and medium enterprises. This has prompted greater liquidity of the capital, relieved the pressure of corporate financing and provided a guarantee for the smooth progress of production. According to research, RMB's appreciation will be reduced by 2% to 6% when the value of RMB rises by 1%. Therefore, the depreciation of the RMB will benefit a lot from the textile industry, which is export oriented and investment stimulating industry's economic growth, which can be regarded as "Gospel" for chemical fiber raw materials.

Driven by the favorable factors in the macro market, viscose staple fiber manufacturers have rebuilt their prices, and the price has risen slightly. The manufacturers have been running smoothly in the earlier stage, and the inventory is down. Some low inventory manufacturers' orders have been discharged until next January. Viscose manufacturers produce better sales performance. Some manufacturers are actively preparing for the resumption of production. For example, the Australian viscose staple fiber plant was shut down in November 1st. The company is scheduled to resume production within a month. Silky fiber viscose staple device has been shut down for repair since mid November, and has resumed production on the 5 th of this month.

Downstream market lacks confidence and profits generally.

The prosperity of downstream textile and garment industry has a direct impact on the profits of chemical fiber enterprises. Since the second half of this year, the textile industry has been in a bad season, and exports and domestic sales have declined year by year, and sales have declined. The sales volume of cotton cloth has been very mild, which has led to the purchase of cotton yarn by the manufacturer on demand, and the trading atmosphere is weak. Although the price of viscose staple fiber has been strong in recent years, the price has been rising steadily, but not much. In addition, there is a shortage of actual orders in the lower reaches, and the market stalemate is beginning to show. In the case of shrinking profits, cotton mills have limited production and shut down production.

From the routine cost accounting of enterprises, we can see that the market of human cotton yarn manufacturers is basically in the situation of capital preservation or loss, which restricts the rising of viscose staple fiber again. The price of viscose staple fiber was calculated by 15700 yuan / ton 7 days ago. According to the spinning loss of 1.02, the raw material cost price of raw cotton yarn 30S is 16014 yuan / ton, plus the cost of invoices and so on. The price of 30S cotton yarn is about 17000 yuan / ton, while the 30S cotton yarn in Xiaoshao area is at 18000 yuan or above the level, and the market profit is generally general. At the same time, in the face of the current general situation of internal and external marketing pressure, the stock of enterprises is also increasing. This brings financial pressure to the enterprises, which leads to the reduction of the purchase plan of the downstream cotton mills and further the increase of the viscose staple fiber market.

On the whole, although the viscose staple fiber market is bathed in a relatively ideal atmosphere, the price is rising strongly. However, due to the obvious loss of the viscose staple fiber manufacturers, even though some businesses are stocking the operation at the end of the year, the sales confidence is still high, and the market confidence is recovering in the near future. Whether the viscose staple fiber can recover smoothly in this adversity depends largely on whether the downstream market can usher in the "winter sun".