PTA Should Not Be Pessimistic &Nbsp After Market Outlook; Market Is Still Puzzled.

　 For the PTA market, I believe that because PX is expected to maintain a strong oscillation, PTA needs cautiously optimistic, and at the same time, the macroeconomic trend seems to have signs of warming. Investors should not be pessimistic about the post market outlook of PTA.

However, taking into account the future market PTA Supply pressure will increase and PTA high profit rate and high opening rate still exist. It is still difficult to completely optimistic about the PTA market outlook.

PX is expected to maintain strong oscillation.

Due to the serious loss of PX production enterprises, the number of PX installations in Asia, including China, has been overhauled or cut down since 7 and August. PX has rebounded and returned to 900 US dollars. Last week, the PX contract settlement in Asia reached US $950 / ton, an increase of US $60 / ton compared with August. Asian PX spot price rose to $968 / ton (FOB Korea) last weekend, and the spot price of MX rose to $834 / ton, and the two price difference rebounded to 134 US dollars / ton. From the difference of price, the loss situation of PX production enterprises has improved, but PX production enterprises are still losing money or slightly profit. However, with the end of the inspection and maintenance of PTA devices such as Xiang Lu petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical, some of the matching PX devices will also increase the operating rate or end the overhaul. After that, the operation rate of PX devices in the Asian region will pick up. On the whole, PX is expected to maintain a strong oscillation in the medium and short term. At the same time, the main operating space of international oil price in September is still between 70 and 85 US dollars. The central axis of the market will move upward, which will help PX maintain its strength.

PX rebound continues to drive PTA production costs up, but the high profit margins of PTA companies will lead to a cost reduction effect on PX, but rising costs will still help PTA companies raise their quotations and boost their morale. With the conversion of spot price of $968 / ton on PX last weekend, the cost of PTA production is about 6370 yuan / ton, compared with the quality PTA of Jiangsu and Zhejiang last Friday. Goods in stock The average transaction price of 7375 yuan / ton, the gross profit of PTA enterprise is about 1000 yuan / ton. If the contract settlement price of US $950 / ton is converted into PX9 months, the production cost of PTA will be roughly 6280 yuan / ton, compared with the contract price quoted by PTA producers in September of 7600 yuan / ton, the gross profit of PTA enterprises is about 1320 yuan / ton. It can be seen that, whether buying PX spot or purchasing PX contract goods, the gross profit of PTA production enterprises is still at a higher level above 1000 tons per ton.

PTA consumption season is coming.

September is the peak season for traditional consumption of PTA, which mainly reflects the stock market of PTA downstream polyester enterprises brought by the change of terminal garments. In addition, the "gold nine silver ten" property market will also lead to some indoor textile consumption. At the same time, the author also noted that at the end of August and September, there would be about 850 thousand tons of new polyester production capacity to drive, corresponding to 730 thousand tons of PTA consumption, and 800 thousand tons of new polyester production capacity in October. During the period, there was no new PTA production capacity in China, and the newly built polyester production capacity will undoubtedly increase domestic PTA consumption.

Since the beginning of this year, benefiting from the replenishment needs of European and American markets and domestic rigid demand, the PTA downstream polyester and the terminal textile and garment market have maintained a steady growth trend, but the growth rate is slowing down from the link point. WIND data show that: in July, China's polyester fiber production was 2229843.35 tons, an increase of 14.43% over the same period, an increase of 8.57%, the highest yield since 2010. In July 2010, China's cloth production was 5 billion 706 million meters, an increase of 20.01% over the same period, a slight decrease of 1.93% in the ring ratio, and in July. Chemical fiber cloth The output was 1 billion 421 million 365 thousand and 400 meters, up 10.27%, and the ratio decreased slightly by 0.04%. From 1 to July, the cumulative output of polyester fiber in China was 13835976.24 tons, an increase of 14.46% over the same period last year. In July 1, the total output of cloth was 35 billion 434 million meters, which increased by 16.73% compared to the same period last year. The cumulative output of chemical fiber cloth from 1 to July was 8 billion 900 million 609 thousand and 800 meters, representing an increase of 10.11% over the same period. From the perspective of terminal demand clothing, in July, China's clothing output was 2 billion 397 million 993 thousand and 800, an increase of 14.51% over the same period, a decrease of 5.29% compared to the same period, 1 to July, the total output of clothing in China was 1503945.86, an increase of 17.25% over the same period last year. From the above data, the overall market of PTA is still good. The recent fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate has greatly relieved textile and garment exporters' worries about the appreciation of the renminbi. Meanwhile, the US ISM manufacturing index rose from 55.5 in July to 56.3 in August. The same period in China rose from 51.2 to 51.7 in the same period. The number of non farm payrolls in the US decreased by 54 thousand than expected in August. The US and China economic data showed signs of warming. From this point of view, it seems that the demand for PTA should not be shared. But it should be noted that the recent domestic economic data often fluctuate significantly.

Overall, PTA demand is expected to improve in September, driven by the arrival of the seasonal peak season and the start of many new polyester installations. However, taking into account the risks of trade restrictions and the reduction of external demand in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang Power Limited and PTA terminal, the author is cautiously optimistic about the demand for PTA in September.

The supply pressure of PTA will rebound after {page_break}.

In August, due to Yangzi Petrochemical 1 million 300 thousand tons and Heron Petrochemical 1 million 500 thousand tons PTA capacity maintenance for half a month, as well as Peng Wei petrochemical, Dalian Yisheng, Ningbo Taiwan and other PTA devices failed to stop, the domestic PTA plant operating rate dropped from 99% to about 70%, and the reduction of PTA supply to a certain extent blocked the downstream space of PTA. According to the maintenance arrangement, Yangzi Petrochemical and Xiang Lu Petrochemical will be overhauled before and after September 10th. During the same period, 800 thousand tons of Ningbo's Taiwan chemical plant will start maintenance for half a month. In addition, South Korea's KP Petrochemical may make a 14 day parking inspection before and after this Monday for its capacity of 550 thousand tons / year PTA 3. The shutdown of India MITSUBISHI 800 thousand ton / year PTA device is expected to last until September 23rd. The device stopped in August 7th because of a fault. Another set of 550 thousand tons / year PTA device in September 7th has been stopped for 55 days from September 7th.

As domestic and Asian PTA enterprises still maintain high profits since the beginning of the year, PTA enterprises will still maintain a relatively high starting enthusiasm. After the overhaul, similar to the non parking devices, the PTA device will resume to the high load starting state. From the domestic and other parts of Asia PTA device maintenance and parking situation, as the two main PTA devices in the end of the domestic overhaul, the domestic PTA device operating rate will be on the rise, while other parts of Asia parking is also difficult to offset the domestic two sets of PTA device restart supply pressure.