Wang Tiankai: Economic Slowdown Promotes Industry To Return To Reason

The global recovery is weakening, the domestic economic environment is cooling down, and the main operational indicators of the industry are slowing down.

The most pessimistic argument for the outside world is: after a growth mode.

However, there is a way out for another kind of thinking.

High growth of industrial economy

At the same time, in view of the recent pressure on the policies of the textile industry, the economic circles and the public opinion circles have correspondingly produced inconsistent evaluations. Therefore, the hidden factors behind the explicit data are deeply mined, which is related to the confidence index and industrial policy tilt in the second half of the year.

Value "three quarter enterprise"

Corporate financial indicators should not be "absent".

Do you want to stay in data presentation or dig for internal causes?

Reporter: in the first half of the industry analysis meeting, you put forward that in addition to paying close attention to macroeconomic indicators in the future, we should properly combine financial data of enterprises.

What is the reason for this?

Wang Tiankai: economic operation analysis is a practical art.

In routine analysis, there will always be some extreme reflection of special data, which is inconsistent with the simple macroscopic appearance. This requires closer interpretation of the industry, but there are not many means at present.

Reporter: specific to the first half of this year's industry operation, what indicators do you think deserves special attention?

Wang Tiankai: from 1~5 month's industry data, production, sales, investment and efficiency all showed two digit growth.

Among them, the most prominent benefit is over 60%.

The cost profit margin has increased by 1%, and the sales profit margin has increased by 0.91 percentage points. What is the reason for the surge in efficiency? I am afraid it can not be generalized that the internal management has been strengthened.

It is necessary to make in-depth analysis of the cost, cost and price combined with the actual situation of the industry so as to see clearly the trend of the whole industry.

Reporter: what are the hidden factors hidden behind the dominant data?

Wang Tiankai: at the beginning of this year, the association organized the grass-roots research results. The general reflection is that the increase in raw materials, energy and wages is not small, and the pressure on enterprises is great.

Why has the benefit of the first half of the year still increased a big piece? With two items of cost and cost, the gross interest rate increased by 0.6 percentage points, and the three cost decreased by 0.4 percentage points. The main business income increased by 28% in the first half of the year, the increase of the number of workers was 1.2%, the labor productivity was increased and the employment was reduced, so it was very clear that the wage growth was offset.

However, what is the weight of this part? Where is a part? It needs to be analyzed and studied.

From the price of the first half of the year, the price of the terminal products is relatively stable, the prices of cotton and chemical fiber in the front-end of the industry chain are fluctuating. These two sectors have contributed greatly to the profits of the whole industry, not only the normal market supply and demand factors, but also the excessive reserves caused by the panic mentality.

In addition, the three expenses decreased by 0.4%, including 0.1% of the financial cost and 0.3% of the administrative expenses.

From the perspective of financial cost, the turnover rate of finished products is increasing and the efficiency of capital utilization is increasing.

Management costs have been decreasing for a period of time, and management costs as a whole are very wide. What are the actual costs? This needs to be combined with the specific circumstances of the enterprise.

For targeted research on some sensitive issues, it is best to find 30~50 representative enterprises with better management foundation and reasonable distribution of industrial chain to participate in the discussion and provide valuable subdivision data.

Reporter: how can enterprises really participate?

Wang Tiankai: it is one of the ways to take advantage of the questionnaire survey conducted by the Federation of entrepreneurs every year.

For targeted research on some sensitive issues, it is best to find 30~50 representative enterprises with better management foundation and reasonable distribution of industrial chain to participate in the discussion and provide valuable subdivision data.

The upcoming "three quarter business operator tracking survey" questionnaire will also focus on the market segment, and make a scientific investigation and analysis of the distribution pattern of cost, cost and price in the industrial chain.

Avoiding short-term perspective for long-term development

Faced with downside risks, or to clear up bubbles? {page_break}

Reporter: simply from the first half of the year's running data, the decline in output value of industrial output and the decline in output of major products are a new predicament.

Wang Tiankai: a scientific analysis method, a look at the absolute value, two see the comparison value, and at the same time to compare with before the financial crisis.

In the first half of the year, raw material prices rose sharply, labor wages increased, and recruitment difficulties were severe.

Under such pressure of cost, the total output value of 1~5 increased by 21.4%, the output of chemical fiber increased by 15.86 percentage points, the output of yarn increased by 17.11%, and the output of cloth increased by 17.38%.

In terms of domestic demand, the domestic sales value of clothing increased by 29.8%.

In terms of operation quality, enterprises with above scale 1~5 realized profit of 76 billion 900 million yuan, an increase of 61.1% over the same period last year, an increase of 61.24 percentage points over the previous year, a sales profit margin of 4.43%, an increase of 0.91 percentage points over the previous year, and a 1% increase in the cost and profit margin.

Are at historically high levels.

The two quarter is slower than the first quarter, which belongs to the normal category.

There are both reasons for the low base number and the reasons for national macro-control.

In the first quarter of 2009, shortly after the financial crisis, the country's 4 trillion investment led to a slow recovery in the two quarter and began to rise in the three quarter.

It can be deduced that compared with the same period last year, the first quarter of this year increased significantly, the two quarter growth slowed down, the three quarter slipped, and then gradually stabilized.

Reporter: this trend seems to be contrary to the supply and demand of the previous period.

Wang Tiankai: at the end of last year, orders for terminal products were full, demand was strong, and supply and demand were tilted upstream.

Demand is linked to price, and the price can not be pmitted to a certain extent. The psychology of upstream enterprises will also change.

For the textile industry with wide distribution of industries, there exist checks and balances for a long time.

At present, the price fluctuation of terminal products is very small, and the price of raw materials is soaring all the way.

It is not clear which link to sacrifice, but it is an indisputable fact that the growth rate slowed down in the second half of this year.

Domestic 4 trillion investment driven extreme measures will not be reproduced, but such a pull has made the entire domestic economy in recovery.

The textile and garment industry is a consumer goods industry, and investment promotion can not be accomplished overnight.

Reporter: after the crisis, the industry development is slowing down. What kind of mindset should we have at this time?

Wang Tiankai: of course, we are most concerned about the market.

It is not necessarily a good thing that the financial crisis is coming fast and moving fast.

The hands of the market are the most merciless, but it is also the easiest way for enterprises to make greater determination and strength in the process of adjustment.

Economic slowdown not only has no disadvantages, but filters out unnecessary bubbles, so that the development of industry can return to a reasonable speed.

The most important thing is not to focus on the short-term benefits reflected by the data, but to focus on the "dilemma" that affects the long-term development of the industry.

Reporter: at the moment, the analysis institutions are not very optimistic about the macro environment at home and abroad. Does this affect the domestic sales and exports of the industry growth?

Wang Tiankai: at the moment, it is not optimistic anymore. It is much better than the financial crisis. It can only be said that there will be uncertainties in the future, such as whether the debt crisis of Europe and America will go to the bottom for two times, triggering the second round of economic stimulus plan and so on.

Even if we put them all away, it would be even worse than in the second half of 2008.

Domestic 4 trillion investment driven extreme measures will not be reproduced, but such a pull has made the entire domestic economy in recovery.

The textile and garment industry is a consumer goods industry, and investment promotion can not be accomplished overnight.

In the final analysis, consumption pulling is a long-term process in the "three carriages" to stimulate the economy.

Distinguish positive signals from market experience

To strengthen investment intensity or cool outlook?

Reporter: cotton spinning and chemical fiber have been washed up in the first half of the year. At present, there are signs of investment expansion. Is this a positive sign?

Wang Tiankai: be alert when it's too cold and overheated.

As mentioned earlier, we should clearly analyze the reasons for the growth of benefits and become more rational when we enter the investment level.

At present, the construction of textile in some industries is heating up.

Admittedly, the market economy must be a surplus economy. For such a highly competitive market in textile industry, I have never advocated the idea of duplication.

But now it is a special period, and profit driven and policy driven will inevitably lead to fever.

Therefore, a little more sober is also necessary.

Xinjiang's enthusiasm for investment in cotton spinning is relatively high. First, there is a strong demand for the pformation of local resources into industrial advantages, and the two is due to the support of the policy of developing the western region.

On the whole, we must be more enthusiastic about the development of Xinjiang, and we should also pay attention to science.

If enthusiasm is not scientific, some problems will arise in the future.

The key to whether resource advantages can be pformed into industrial advantages is methodology.

After industrialization, will it be important to compete with the mainland and lay aside resources?

This requires a lot of supporting links, including technology and management personnel, terminal market convergence.

The most successful development in Xinjiang now is the Yida mode. The front of the industrial chain is in Xinjiang, and the deep processing and terminal market are in their own hands.

Henan is also a typical area where resource advantages are pformed into industrial advantages, but relatively speaking, it is closer to the market.

Xinjiang is deep in the mainland and far away from the terminal. It is prudent and prudent to build an independent factory. It is a way of thinking that the mainland terminal enterprises jointly build factories in Xinjiang.

Reporter: from the first half of the association's field research and questionnaire survey, what is the main contradiction? {page_break}

Wang Tiankai: at present, we are mainly concerned about several problems: resources, energy and environment. We should increase workers' income, increase social insurance efforts and build a long-term plan.

Of course, the brand contribution rate, the contribution rate of science and technology, and the construction of public service platform for small and medium-sized enterprises should also be further strengthened.

In the first quarter of the "entrepreneur tracking survey" conducted by the Federation of entrepreneurs, solving the financing difficulties, lightening the tax burden, increasing the support for innovation, and developing the environment-friendly economy are all the suggestions that the enterprises focus on macroeconomic and industrial policies.

Xinjiang's enthusiasm for investment in cotton spinning is relatively high. First, there is a strong demand for the pformation of local resources into industrial advantages, and the two is due to the support of the policy of developing the western region.

On the whole, we must be more enthusiastic about the development of Xinjiang, and we should also pay attention to science.

Reporter: there are more problems left behind in the old industrial base. Is there a gradual policy appeal in the process of adjustment and pformation?

Wang Tiankai: a large number of state-owned enterprises have been concentrated in old industrial bases.

After these years of adjustment, we still face many problems, such as heavy staff and heavy burden.

How to help them out? They need the joint efforts of the three parties, namely, enterprises, trade associations and governments.

Some cities, such as Shanghai, Qingdao, Guangdong, Shijiazhuang, Xi'an and so on, are relatively well settled. Local governments take appropriate measures to return land grant fees, allowing enterprises to be used for commercial development, to a certain extent, to alleviate the urgent need.

However, there is still pressure on the adjustment of surplus personnel in some areas, which requires the government to continue to give support and attention.

The old industrial base adjustment and pformation and upgrading need not and can not be a model. We need to adjust measures to local conditions, define our own position and base ourselves on long-term development.

Reporter: in the previous period, the Ministry of industry and information technology announced 226 list of enterprises to eliminate backward production capacity.

How much impact will this have on the industry?

Wang Tiankai: when it comes to the impact on the industry, it should be seen as a positive signal for promoting energy conservation and emission reduction.

When the ingot took place during the financial crisis in Southeast Asia, the elimination of backward production capacity also had the background of the global financial crisis.

External factors play a certain role, but the most important factor is endogenous motivation.

Innovation and technological pformation are always the primary task of industry development.

The so-called elimination of backward production capacity, we must have standards.

In the process of implementation, effective means are also needed.

First of all, the market is bound to be eliminated. It is true that high energy consumption, but still needs, is unfavorable to social development, supplemented by economic means; and environmental pollution can also be taken by legal means.

The market, the economy and the law should be combined to achieve the desired effect.

Xinjiang's enthusiasm for investment in cotton spinning is relatively high. First, there is a strong demand for the pformation of local resources into industrial advantages, and the two is due to the support of the policy of developing the western region.

On the whole, we must be more enthusiastic about the development of Xinjiang, and we should also pay attention to science.

For targeted research on some sensitive issues, it is best to find 30~50 representative enterprises with better management foundation and reasonable distribution of industrial chain to participate in the discussion and provide valuable subdivision data.

Domestic 4 trillion investment driven extreme measures will not be reproduced, but such a pull has made the entire domestic economy in recovery.

The textile and garment industry is a consumer goods industry, and investment promotion can not be accomplished overnight.

There seems to be less and less positive signals coming from the data itself.

How to consolidate the stage results of structural adjustment in the previous period, and clear away the reasonable development of bubbles has become the most concerned issue in the industry.

At the same time, in view of the recent pressure on the policies of the textile industry, the economic circles and the public opinion circles have correspondingly produced inconsistent evaluations. Therefore, the hidden factors behind the explicit data are deeply mined, which is related to the confidence index and the industrial policy tilt in the second half of the year.