Wang Yang: The US Dollar Has Dropped Or Opened Up In The Medium Term.

Last week international foreign exchange market The dollar has fallen sharply against major currencies due to the impact of the Fed's resumption of quantitative easing. The US dollar index saw a minimum of 79.25 on Friday, closing at close to its lowest level of 79.27. Whether it is fundamental change or Technological form The change seems to imply that the US dollar's new downward trend has begun.

Last week, the main reason for the fall in the US dollar was mainly in the Fed's Open Market Committee on Tuesday. In a statement after the meeting, Bernanke acknowledged that the pace of economic recovery in the US was slower than expected. At the same time, the Federal Reserve believes that when necessary, a new round of easing policy will be provided once again to further promote economic development and raise inflation. Although the US market has been underperforming in the past few years, it is likely to restart. Easing policy But the Fed's statement after the meeting is clearly more clear than expected. In his speech on Friday, Bernanke further expounded his views on the above views.

Of course, from last Monday to Friday, American housing data increased to a certain extent the market's concern for the current economic situation of the United States. Last week, from Monday to Friday, five housing data from Monday to Friday showed that only two new housing starts and NAR8 sales in August were better than expected. The rise of the latter was only an increase from last month's historical low point, while the other three housing related data were all worse than expected or continued to decline. It shows that the housing market continues to be depressed during the period of preferential tax policies in the United States, and the downturn in the housing market will eventually affect the decline in consumer spending. Friday's durable goods orders are also worse than expected, and a big drop in the past year. With regard to the current economic performance in the United States and widely expected market, the Fed is likely to restart quantitative easing policy in the fourth quarter, which directly led to a sharp decline in the US dollar.

The second quarter GDP correction will be announced on Thursday, and the market is expected to remain at the initial 1.6% level. If the actual situation is worse than expected, the US dollar will face more pressure.

Last week, the dollar dropped completely against other major currencies in addition to the basic level of the Canadian dollar. From the perspective of historical performance, in the 08 year of the United States in the face of the outbreak of the financial crisis, after the start of quantitative easing policy in early 09, the US dollar had only been in the initial stage of the market, and it had been on the decline for a long period of eight months after it had been maintained for a short time by the market's risk aversion demand. The resumption of quantitative easing policy is likely to have a far-reaching impact on the US dollar's medium-term trend.

Looking at the trend of technology, the US dollar index has fallen below the technical support 81.80 and the previous low point 80 last week. The index has been below the 60 week EMA, and the medium-term trend has weakened. The K-line chart shows that the head and shoulders top type with 80 neck is also broken down, so the latter market is likely to enter the medium term falling market. The target for the future market should be 77.50 or even 74.17 low in November last year. But it is noteworthy that the index of the daily line is oversold, and the 3 hour map even shows a clear backside, so there may be a technical rebound in the short term, a short-term resistance of 79.80, and a key resistance of 80.20.

Euro: mid term rally has been established

Although last week, Ireland's GDP fell again by 1.2%, or even second Greece in the euro area, but last week Greece and Ireland successfully completed the sale of treasury bonds. The market's worries about the sovereign crisis in the eurozone are apparently not as sensitive as it was in May. Under the pressure of a significant increase in US dollar liquidity, the time for the euro to get rid of the frenzied sell-off of the sovereign crisis in May seems to have arrived.

Looking at the trend of technology, the euro / dollar broke a 200 day moving average and a high of 1.3333 in August 6th, setting a new high of 1.3495, and after the close of high close, the mid term rally has been basically established, and the target of the future market will point to 1.3900 or even higher level. But what is also concerned is the highest 1.3495 on Friday, close to the 09 year November high point, 1.5144-2010 50% low in June, 50% return tone (1.3507), plus short-term continuous sharp rise, the daily and short-term indicators have been overbought and there is a certain pressure of callback. Therefore, if the exchange rate can not exceed 1.3500 at the beginning of this week, it is possible to reorganize in the short term. The short-term support is 1.3330 and the key support is 1.3280.