Chen Yiqing: Analysis Of Supply And Demand Situation Of China'S Cocoon Silk In The First Half Of 2010

Because of the world

According to customs statistics, the total export volume of China's Silk Commodities was 1 billion 484 million US dollars in the first half of this year, up 8.99% over the same period last year.

This is far below the growth rate of 35.2% of China's total export volume, which is far lower than the increase of China's textile export volume (32.36%) and clothing industry export (16.07%).

According to the export statistics, according to the customs statistics, the total length of silk exports in China in the first half of this year was about 29040 tons, down 3.03% from the same period last year.

Among them, 5905 tons of filament export, a decrease of 14.7% over the same period last year.

The export of mulberry silk was reduced by 2.36%, the export of wire thread was reduced by 30.81%, and that of short silk exports was 3085 tons, a decrease of 22.12% compared to the same period (of which 29.93% of silk spun yarn exports decreased).

Silk silk exports 130 million 360 thousand meters, an increase of 6.44% over the same period, of which 4.46% of the export of billet and 4.46% of printing and dyeing silk increased by 17.3%.

Silk clothing exports 39 million 800 thousand pieces (sets), a year-on-year reduction of 7.69%, of which knitted apparel exports decreased by 8.77%, and the export of woven garments decreased by 7.19%.

Among them, the export volume of the main selling market increased and the amount of silk decreased.

In the first half of this year, the mainland's exports to the US, China's Hongkong Special Administrative Region, Japan, India, Italy, South Korea and Pakistan were 1 billion 21 million US dollars (68.77% of total silk exports), 0.29 percentage points higher than the same period last year, an increase of 9.44% over the same period last year.

The export volume of the main export markets has increased by a different margin. Among them, the largest increase was the export to Italy, with an increase of 36.54%. The smallest increase was exports to the United States, an increase of only 0.09%.

In the first half of this year, the total imports of various kinds of real silk goods from customs statistics amounted to US $99 million 289 thousand, an increase of 22.74% over the same period last year, of which imports of cocoons, silk and silk amounted to US $55 million 595 thousand and 800, an increase of 17.32% over the same period last year.

Due to various factors, the supply of raw materials for cocoon silk in China is tight and prices are rising sharply.

At the same time, in order to reduce costs and increase production of blended, interwoven and some home textile products, domestic enterprises imported relatively cheap cocoon and silk raw material products from abroad, and their total silk content reached 3140 tons, which was 131.3% higher than that of the same period last year. More than 70% of them were cocoons and silk (65% of them were short filaments, and 93% of them were waste silk).

According to the customs statistics, the first half of this year is about 39 thousand and 800 tons of silk (long and short fiber).

According to the normal arrangement of the industry, the amount of silkworm cocoons that can be used in the first half of the year should be about 28 thousand tons, plus the amount of silk imported from about 3140 tons of cocoon, silk and silk. In the first half of this year, the amount of silk can be at least 49 thousand tons (long and short fiber).

In addition, there was the supply of tussah silk in the first half of the year and a total of 1300 tons of reserve silk in the first half of four years.

Thus, the total supply and demand is calculated, and there is no need to "eat the grain in the second half" in the second half of 2009.

From the above, we can see that the supply and demand of cocoon silk in China in the first half of this year is not in fact tense.

Even considering that the quality of spring cocoons in some production areas has declined due to various factors, to a certain extent, the effective amount of silk supply has been affected, but the market should never be so nervous that the price has been pushed up to date in recent months.

Of course, there are many reasons for the rising trend of cocoon silk prices in the first half of the year. But the above data fully show that supply and demand should not be the main reason, and the specific reason is that we need further rational analysis and research.

Silk exports face new challenges

The complexity of world economic recovery, the particularity of silk products and the drastic changes of domestic cocoon silk market have brought about some new situations in China's silk export in the post financial crisis era.

The main reasons are:

The increase in export volume was affected by last year's low base factor and the rising price of raw materials.

First of all, it should be pointed out that the increase in the export volume of Silk Commodities in the first half of this year was based on the decrease in exports compared with last year, with a low base factor.

Secondly, we can see from the customs statistics and the actual situation of the industry that the growth of export volume in the first half of the year is entirely due to the rising price of raw material commodities.

In the first half of the year, although the export volume of silk varieties and silk garments decreased to varying degrees, the price of domestic cocoons rose sharply, which directly pushed up their export prices, resulting in an increase of 162 million US dollars in total silk exports.

Replenishment of foreign silk market also exists.

Affected by the global financial crisis, the silk export volume of China's silk exports decreased by about 14.73% in the first half of last year, a decrease of about 11.56% over the whole year.

This shows that the international silk market has gone through a ruthless process of inventory, and the restocking of inventory has become a necessity in the process of economic recovery.

This year, Europe, Japan and other regions and countries also have replenishment of imported raw materials.

They have to buy even the high prices based on production and consumption needs.

For example, last year, the total silk content of all kinds of silk products imported from Italy decreased by about 31%, of which the amount of billet was reduced by about 21%. In the first half of this year, although the price of the silk fabric increased by 47.56% over the same period last year, the import volume increased by 17.37%. Japan imported less than 37% of its silk from China last year. Even though the price of the wire has increased by 34.15% this year, the import volume of the product has increased by 18.08%.

In addition, customs statistics also show that although some foreign enterprises need to make up the market, it is difficult to accept because the price is too high and can only reduce the purchase amount accordingly.

For example, in the first half of this year, there are such cases as Italy's wire rod and Japanese silk export.

Under the influence of various factors in the second half of the year, the momentum of replenishment will gradually weaken, and its positive pulling effect on the market will also become inevitable.

The pmission of product prices in front and back road takes time or is difficult.

According to the statistical analysis, most of the markets with obvious increase in export volume belong to the relatively large proportion of the import volume of raw material commodities in the first half of this year. For example, the export volume of Italy, India and Pakistan has increased significantly, and their proportion of silk and silk fabrics is also very large, accounting for about 81.88%, 97.83% and 91.65% of their total export volume respectively. The small increase in export volume is mainly due to the relatively large import volume of silk garments and other manufactured goods, such as the smaller increase in exports to the United States and the Hongkong Special Economic Zone in China, and the significant amount of silk exports to these two markets, accounting for 98.07% and 66.32% of their total exports respectively. From customs

This reflects that there is still a certain time or difficulty for the pmission of raw material prices in the former road to the pmission of prices of post garments and other manufactured goods.