PTA Price Rises Slowly &Nbsp, Still Needs Caution Later Stage.

As of September 17, 2010, according to the data of China textile net, the price of PTA was 7500 yuan / ton, up 600 yuan / ton compared with 6900 yuan / ton in July 16th (the lowest price since the beginning of 2010). On futures price, the 17 main PTA contract 1101 closed at 7892 yuan / ton, the price was 7214 yuan / ton at the lowest price of PTA contract in July 15th, which increased by 678 yuan / ton, and the trend of price change is similar.

Multiple factors support PTA price rise

Judging from the upstream raw materials, crude oil prices in May 2010 were hit by the European Union's sovereign debt crisis and fell to the low price level. With the weakening of the impact of the European debt crisis in the late stage, the global economy still maintained a recovery trend. The average price of WTI futures rose to 76.67 US dollars / barrel in August, though the annulus ratio rose by only 0.55%, but it has picked up for 3 consecutive months.

In addition, the CRB index, which is positively related to crude oil prices, began to rise sharply from 450.47 in June 7th to 530.24 in September 17th, rising 79.77 points, and rising to the highest point since the beginning of 2010. While the dollar index negatively related to crude oil prices rose sharply to 82.43 in August 11th, but since September, it has shown signs of turbulence.

The recovery of crude oil prices has become the source of support for the recovery of PTA prices.

Judging from the price of naphtha, the price of naphtha at home and abroad is also rising.

In September 1, 2010, CNPC raised the price of naphtha settlement for 294 yuan / ton to 4913 yuan / ton, Sinopec September naphtha factory price also raised to 5310 yuan / ton; international aspect, Singapore's naphtha offshore price (FOB) in August 2010 was 73.30 US dollars / barrel, Japanese CIF (CFR) 674.97 us dollars / ton, the ring ratio increased 7.20%, 6.45% respectively.

In addition, according to China textile net data, in August 2010, the average price of the external raw materials of PTA upstream was 930 yuan / ton, and the chain ratio increased by 7.95%. In September 10th, the external price of PX rose to 975 yuan / ton in August 2010.

From the demand of downstream textile products, textile exports continue to pick up. Meanwhile, the seasonal effect of textile traditional "golden nine silver ten" is gradually reflected, thus becoming an important driving force to drive up the price of PTA in the upstream.

According to the China Customs express, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China in 2010 1~8 was 129 billion 804 million US dollars, representing an increase of 23.76% over the same period last year. The growth rate increased by 0.81 percentage points compared with that in 1~7 months, and the year-on-year growth rate has continued to rise since March.

And the volume data of textile city also showed that the recent sales boom of downstream textile products continued to rise.

In August 1st, the volume of light textile city was 3 million 920 thousand M / day, and it rose to 5 million 970 thousand M / D in September 15th.

From the price of polyester and polyester staple in the lower reaches of PTA, the average monthly price of polyester chip (PET) and polyester staple in August 2010 was 9158 yuan / ton, 9627 yuan / ton, respectively, up 0.46% and 2.06% respectively, and the price of PET, polyester and short fiber rose to 9350 yuan / ton and 10600 yuan / ton respectively in September 17th.

In addition, cotton prices continue to rise, textile enterprises continue to increase the cost of cotton shopping, but also to increase the demand for alternative chemical fiber raw materials, indirectly boosting the price recovery of PTA.

Affected by factors such as cotton throwing and storage, the spot price of 328 cotton in China has dropped from high in July (the highest price in July 9th reached 18419 yuan / ton), but in the late period, due to bad weather, cotton prices began to pick up again from September 1st low of 18002 yuan / ton, and September 17th prices had rebounded to 19005 yuan / ton, a record high.

While the price of cotton Cotlook A (FE) rose to 100.3 cents / pound in September 13th, the first breakthrough was 100 cents / pound mark.

In the production link of PTA, taking into account part of the manufacturers' parking inspection, the supply of PTA is expected to be tight in September. For example, China's Formosa Plastics (Ningbo) has a capacity of 600 thousand tons / year PTA device and plans to stop on September 10~25; the India oil company (IOC) has a capacity of 550 thousand tons / year of production line parking from August 23rd to October; South Korea's KP chemical capacity is 550 thousand tons / year's 3 PTA device, which stops from September to mid term.

At the same time, China's PTA imports also showed an increasing trend. According to China Customs data, China's total import PTA392.03 million tons in 2010, an increase of 9.23% over the same period last year, and the growth rate has continued to rise since March 2010, 1~7.

PTA imports in July were 606 thousand and 700 tons, an increase of 24.84% over the same period last year, while the annulus ratio increased by 1.94%.

Late PTA prices have little room to go up.

On the macroeconomic side, the commercial sales data of the main developed economies remain on the whole as a whole, but the unemployment rate is still at a high level, which restricts the rise of consumer demand. On the one hand, it will affect the trend of crude oil prices in the upper reaches of PTA, and on the other hand, it will also affect the demand for textile products downstream of the PTA.

According to statistics from the US Bureau of statistics, retail sales in the US grew by 0.45% in August, up 3.77% from the market expectations.

Among them, sales of clothing products in the United States increased by 1.16%, an increase of 3.91% over the same period last year.

Japan's Ministry of industry and commerce data show that in July, the total sales volume of Japanese business increased by 2.10%, an increase of 1% over the same period last year.

Among them, the total sales volume of textile and clothing increased by 4.71%, mainly attributable to the growth of retail sales of clothing products.

The total retail sales of the EU in July grew by 0.1%, but fell 0.1 percentage points from June, slowing down, and increasing by 1% over the same period.

However, the unemployment rate in the United States rose to 9.6% in August, up 0.1 percentage points from last month. The slow recovery of manufacturing industry is the main reason for the high unemployment rate.

Japan's unemployment rate in July was 5.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from June, but still at a record high.

The euro area unemployment rate in July was 10%, maintaining this level for fifth consecutive months.

Domestically, since the beginning of September, the appreciation of RMB has been obvious, which is not conducive to the sustained recovery of textile exports.

In September 1st, the RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was 1 yuan against RMB 6.8126 yuan, in September 17th it dropped to 6.7172 yuan, and the renminbi appreciated 1.42% against the US dollar. The main reason is that the Obama administration is preparing for the November mid term elections in Parliament and putting pressure on China.

In August, CPI rose to 3.5% and inflationary pressure increased. However, considering that the rise of CPI was mainly caused by food prices, it belongs to structural inflation.

But it is worth worrying about the impact of the current restriction on the textile industry.

This year is the last year of the implementation of the national "11th Five-Year plan". The pressure of energy saving and emission reduction is increasing. Some regions are taking power restriction measures, and the textile enterprises' operating rate has been affected, resulting in a weakening of the purchasing power of the upstream PTA, thus jointly inhibiting the PTA price rising space with the exchange rate issue.