Cotton Prices Ten Years High, "Not Too Cold At The Height" Plunged Into A Major Reduction In Production Plagued

　 This autumn, we call it platinum. cotton An unprecedented price rising myth is being deduced.

In October 8th, when China's cotton price index rose 0.11% again, it reached 22710 yuan / ton, compared with 18110 yuan / ton in the same period last month, the ratio rose 25.4%, while the increase was over 71.6%.

In the 10 year high harvest season, no one seems to be the beneficiaries of this wave of price rise: cotton prices are not enough to offset the sharp reduction in production, cotton farmers are struggling on the guaranteed cost line; cotton brokers and Cotton Traders rush to find cotton sources for four while at the same time bear the risk of price fluctuation; cotton textile enterprises are in danger when the cost is rising rapidly.

In September 27th, the NDRC deployed a number of measures to control cotton prices. Cotton storage Another 400 thousand tons of state reserve cotton were sold again. However, industry analysts said that the long term cotton prices still have room for improvement. Production cuts bring the highest cotton price in ten years

In September 29th, faced with a 5 year old granddaughter crying loudly in her arms, Song Yuhong, 64, had some helplessness. She had not seen her parents for a long time. Song, who lives in Li Jia village, Feng County, who lives in Zhanhua County, said that her son was working and picking cotton in her more than 260 Mu cotton field at the time of cotton harvest.

Unlike the towns in the southern part of the winter jujube, there are several towns in northern Zhanhua, including Feng Jia Zhen, which have long been a tradition of cotton. Statistics show that in 2009, Zhanhua County cotton planting area reached 480 thousand mu, as early as in 2005, the output of 30375 tons was ranked 43 in the 100 cotton counties in the year.

This year's cotton purchase price is the highest price I have ever seen. A cotton planting veteran told the newspaper that in September 29th, the purchase price of cotton in the village had reached 5.3 yuan / Jin, compared with 2.7 yuan / Jin in the same period last year, even before half a month ago, the figure remained at 3.5 yuan / Jin. Such high prices and sharp gains have never been seen before.

In fact, Song Yuhong, who is in remote rural land, has never heard of it. Goods in stock The market, such as the cotton price of runaway horses, has hit a 10 year high since the opening of cotton prices. In October 8th, China's cotton price index continued to rise from September 2nd to 22710 yuan / ton. The price rose by 25.4% compared with 18110 yuan / ton in September 8th, compared with 13232 yuan / ton in the same period last year, which surged 71.6% over the same period last year.

At the same time, the futures market, recently, the main contract of cotton futures in Zhengzhou has seen frequent trading, and has hit a record high for many times. In the past 9 months of July, the cumulative increase in cotton prices reached 31% this quarter.

The increase was mainly caused by a serious reduction in cotton production. It has been reported that China's cotton acreage has dropped by 14 million mu in the past two years. In addition, several consecutive rainfalls in autumn have resulted in a decline in cotton yield per unit area. Song Yuhong, who has planted cotton for more than ten years, said that due to the accumulation of water after rainfall, the cotton rotted and rotted, and some of the autumn peach rotted seriously.

Cotton farmers: struggling on the guaranteed capital line

As for the specific reduction rate, Song Yuhong said that the yield per mu of his son's cotton field is only about 300 Jin, and the per mu yield in the past year is stable between 500 Jin and 600 Jin. In the same village, a cotton farmer named Li, who planted 46 mu of cotton, was even more reluctant to produce tears because of the low yield of cotton fields. The yield of his cotton field was only about 250 Jin. With such a big reduction in production, even if cotton prices are so high, it will be nice to grow cotton this year. Song to the newspaper calculated the cost of planting cotton per acre: the contract fee of one acre cotton field is between 430 yuan / mu 450 yuan / mu; the cotton field per mu needs 5 catties of cotton seed, the cost of cotton seed is 100 yuan for 20 yuan / Jin, and 5 kg of plastic film for 7 yuan per catty per mu of cotton, the cost is 35 yuan; the cost of chemical fertilizer and pesticide per mu of cotton is more than 300 yuan. The above costs add up to at least 865 yuan.

The above fixed costs can not be circumvented. In addition, the labor cost jumped sharply this year has reduced the profit margins of cotton farmers. Because Li Jia Village cotton farmers have dozens of acres or even hundreds of acres of cotton fields, therefore, when picking cotton, they need a large number of workers. Song Yu Hong's son hired 164 people a day at most.

According to a local villager, every morning, pickers from Wudi, Yangxin and Northeast China wait for their employers near the gas station near Lijia village. Their queues of miles from the gas station all the way across the bridge near the neighbouring village are conservative, at least 20 thousand people.

So many people can be employed in one or two hours, late or even unable to work. The above mentioned cotton farmers claim that the daily wage of local cotton growers for picking workers has reached 120 yuan / person under the pressure of labor shortage, and last year the highest level was only 80 yuan per day, or nearly half of the total. According to this, combined with each picker's daily workload of about 50 Jin, the average cost of picking cotton per catty can reach 1.5 yuan.

With Song Yuhong's son producing 300 Jin per mu, the labor cost per mu of cotton field is 450 yuan, plus the fixed cost of about 865 yuan per mu, the total cost per mu is 1315 yuan. With the purchase price of 5.3 yuan / Jin on the 29 day, the net income of Song Yuhong's son's cotton per mu is only 275 yuan. For example, cotton farmers such as Li, cotton farmers and other serious cotton producers are likely to lose money.

Broker: miserable situation

Just as Song Yuhong, the old cotton grower, said that his son could not earn a few dollars a year for a busy year, a worried looking Zhao Fangang rode past the song in front of his dusty tricycle. Zhao, a member of forty or fifty cotton brokers in Feng Jia village, is responsible for buying cotton from local cotton growers and collecting 2 points / Jin commissions from local cotton traders.

After stopping at the gate of the pickles shop in the kingdom of Song Dynasty, Zhao Fangang told the newspaper that he had a bad business on the 29 day and bought only 6000 catties of cotton for the customer. After sharing with the remaining two partners, it only brought him 40 yuan of income. This autumn, Zhao's biggest achievement was 30 thousand jin a day. Last year, he received a maximum of 200 thousand jin for the customer. This year cotton production is small, so it is more difficult to buy enough quantities. Zhao explained that for those who take a living as a broker, the lack of enough cotton means a straight decline in revenues. Hearing this, Song Shiguo, who had been silent for a long time, quickly interrupted that cotton brokers were hard to do this year. Song told the newspaper that he was also engaged in cotton brokers, but after seeing the bad market this year, he decided to wash his hands and take care of pickles shop.

While complaining about the difficult business situation, Zhao Fangang made a continuous phone call to a foreign cotton vendor in a few minutes. Zhao also sighs and understands his customers. Now cotton traders need to take a lot of risks, especially now that prices are starting to fluctuate.

The purchase price of cotton was 5.3 yuan / kg on that day, which has dropped slightly compared with 5.6 yuan / Jin in September 26th three days ago. Leading to a slight drop in cotton prices is that the 27 NDRC, together with the Ministry of agriculture and other departments, announced the need to strengthen regulation and control of cotton. The previous day, the China cotton reserve management company decided to put 400 thousand tons of national cotton reserves through auction mode on the basis of 600 thousand tons of national cotton reserves.

The drop of the national dumping and auction price will bring about a quick drop in cotton prices. Figures from Zhuo Chuang show that between September 27th and eleven, the cotton seed callback range in Shandong ranged from 0.1 to 0.2 yuan / Jin.

Although this is only a small splash in the overall uplink of cotton prices, however, this newspaper learned that, during this fall, many Cotton Traders lost a lot of money: Binzhou cotton merchants bought 3000 pounds of cotton and made them lose 1500 yuan. A cotton vendor in Weifang Changle bought 5.2 cotton / cotton in a li Jia village. The price of cotton sold to cotton mills dropped to 5 yuan / Jin the next day, and a net loss of more than 3000 yuan per vehicle. {page_break}

Cotton enterprises: in trouble

As the cotton growers in Lijia village feel for the situation, the mountain village, which is 30 miles away from the village, is also worried about the development of the local cotton mill.

The 55 year old flower was originally a local cotton grower who turned 7 years ago into the downstream industry. His small cotton mill is very crude, with only three offices and one workshop. According to introducing, the cotton mill's annual lint processing capacity is only about 500 tons, but it needs millions of pounds of seed cotton as raw material. Cotton prices rose from 3.5 yuan / kg to 5 yuan per catty, which brought considerable difficulties to cotton purchase. Hua Qin said that the cash flow of its enterprises was tight. With the high price of cotton, he could only rely on local cotton growers to pay for credit and credit.

However, he was somewhat lucky that the factory price of lint for his product also rose with the rise in cotton prices. Zhao Hong, a former cotton analyst at Zhuo Chuang, said that in September 25th, the factory price of lint four was 1000 yuan / ton higher than 3 days ago, reaching 22500 yuan / ton, or nearly 4.7%. Benefiting from the rise in the price of products, we are ready to borrow 2 million from banks to tide over the difficulties. We are glad that our enterprises can continue to produce and do not close down. However, Zhao Hong said that during the eleven period, some textile factories with relatively small size in Shandong area were temporarily suspended from work.

And export oriented cotton enterprises are becoming increasingly difficult. In a previous interview with this newspaper, a staff member of a large textile enterprise in Zibo said that since the beginning of this year, the substantial appreciation of the renminbi has made the enterprises face greater operational difficulties, and the continuous rise in cotton prices has pushed the enterprises into an unfavorable situation. According to the source, cotton prices continued to rise sharply, resulting in a sharp increase in production costs and a further reduction in profits.

The situation may be even worse. Cotton prices, which have reached a 10 year high, still have room for improvement. As for the future price ceiling of cotton price, no one can see through it. But it is certain that the long and desolate cotton industry is destined to be chill in the winter.