The Renminbi Appreciated 2.48%&Nbsp In Four Months, And There Is Still Room For Moderate Appreciation.

According to the latest data from China foreign exchange trading center, in October 14th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.6582, which was 111 basis points higher than the previous trading day.

Since September, the central parity of RMB has reached a record high for 13 times, and its appreciation has nearly 1.2% in the past month.

In June 19th, according to the domestic and international economic and financial situation and China's balance of payments, the central bank decided to further advance.

Market expectations for the appreciation of the renminbi are rising at the same time.

In the RMB foreign exchange forward market, 14 days a year the US dollar / RMB discount is 1450 basis points, that is, the market expects us dollar exchange rate to be 6.5132 after one year, and half a month ago, the US dollar is only about 500 basis points against the RMB.

Meanwhile, one-year US dollar / RMB non deliverable forward foreign exchange (NDF) fell to a low of 27 months on the 14 day.

"Foreign exchange financing of new financial institutions continued to rise in 7 and August, and after rising to more than 200 billion yuan for the first time in August, it continued to rise to 289 billion yuan this month.

This is mainly due to the RMB appreciation expected to create a significant increase in foreign exchange settlement intentions.

Societe Generale economist Lu commissar said.

"The main reason for the recent rise in the central parity of RMB against the US dollar is the weakening of the US dollar itself.

From September to the present, the US dollar has been in a downward trend against a basket of currencies. The renminbi is also pegged to a basket of currencies to adjust, and it is on the appreciation channel for the US dollar.

China Construction Bank senior researcher Zhao Qingming told the economic reference Daily reporter.

At the time of press release, the US dollar index, which measures the US dollar against a basket of currencies, has fallen to 76.44, the lowest level in the year.

Some institutions have adjusted the appreciation of the renminbi.

Datong Securities report shows that the renminbi will probably rise to 6.6 near November, and the value will rise by about 3% before the exchange rate starts.

Changjiang Securities's report points out that the probability of RMB's long-term appreciation will become larger in the future.

In a media interview, Wang Tao, chief economist of UBS Securities in China, said that balancing the advantages and disadvantages in the interests of China is beneficial to the adjustment of China's economic structure.

But there is also a view that the RMB exchange rate change should take into account the actual affordability of China's economy and foreign trade industry. The political factor as a starting point and compacting the RMB appreciation in the short term will be harmful to the global market.

Facts show that the appreciation of the renminbi is not directly related to the trade deficit problem between some countries and China. Few countries and regions can not rely on the RMB's appreciation to improve their foreign trade structure, nor can the responsibility of the world economic structural imbalance be pushed to China. The improvement of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism is beneficial not only to China's foreign trade, but also to the stability of the world market.

Liu Yuanchun, vice president of the school of economics, Renmin University, believes that the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate in the fourth quarter may increase, or even the possibility of depreciation in certain periods.

Datong securities also pointed out: "once the hot money poured in, the stock market and the property market will be affected, resulting in excess liquidity and inflationary pressure.

If the RMB exchange rate rises or falls, the overseas hot money will not be profitable.

Lu commissar said that if the RMB appreciation is difficult to break in the future, it is expected that the regulatory authorities will expand the volatility of the RMB against the US dollar.