Textile And Clothing: Slowdown Or Continuation Of Export Growth

Industrial export data continued to grow in April since September, but Growth rate decline The export volume of textile and clothing increased by 9.11 percentage points over the previous month. We believe that the slowdown in industrial exports in September is mainly due to the following reasons:

(1) the effect of replenishment in Europe and America is decreasing. The EU will set a timetable for fiscal tightening to reduce its fiscal deficit. Euro The retail sales in August decreased by 0.4%. In September, the purchasing managers' index of manufacturing industry hit a new low in January. Although the US economic growth was stable, the recovery of employment and credit market was slow, and consumer demand was restrained to some extent.

(2) rising export prices affect export volume. Although September Raw material Prices continued to rise. In September, domestic 328 class cotton prices were 22 thousand and 600 yuan / ton, up 75.49% over the same period last year, the growth rate was 25.99%, the price of polyester staple fiber was 10 thousand and 600 yuan / ton, an increase of 21.33% over the same period last year, the growth rate of 10.44% was 10.44%, the increase in wages caused by the recruitment difficulties of enterprises, the increase of trade friction and the increasing pressure on the appreciation of the Renminbi made the prices of export products increase, but some weaker bargaining power companies chose to break the contract and abandon orders under the pressure of rising costs, thus weakening the increase effect of export volume due to the increase of export prices.

We believe that the fourth quarter export growth will still operate in a downward path. First, prices of raw materials continue to rise (cotton prices are soaring due to factors such as reduced production, demand increase, cotton farmers reluctant to sell, speculation and so on), which drives the prices of chemical fiber products to rise. This weakens the export advantage of our country. Enterprises or increase export prices or reduce orders, increase export prices and increase the risk of order transfer, while less orders directly reduce export volume. Secondly, in August, the trade deficit between the United States and China expanded significantly, reaching a record high. The share of the total trade deficit of the United States also rose to 60%, which will increase the pressure of appreciation in the latter part of the RMB. In addition, the European fiscal tightening effect has gradually emerged in the second half of this year, which will inhibit the growth of domestic demand in Europe. Finally, the foreign trade barriers are becoming increasingly harsh. The United States recently passed the "toxic substances control act" and "foreign producers' legal accountability act", which is another measure for us to impose trade restrictions on China.