The Three Quarter'S Economic Data Are Now Released By &Nbsp; The Central Bank'S Interest Rate Hike Or Heralded CPI'S Rise.

According to the economic statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics, the agenda will be announced this morning.

The purpose of raising interest rates is to curb inflation. In September, CPI continued to rise.

On the evening of 19, the people's Bank of China announced that it had decided to raise the benchmark interest rate for Renminbi deposits and loans of financial institutions since 20.

The one-year deposit benchmark rate increased by 0.25 percentage points, from the current 2.25% to 2.50%; the one-year loan benchmark interest rate increased 0.25 percentage points from the current 5.31% to 5.56%.

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The rate hike in the three quarter of the two day before the release of macroeconomic data, particularly affecting all sides of the nerve.

Li Daokui, a member of the central bank's monetary policy committee and professor of Tsinghua University, believes that on the one hand, China's economy has begun to stabilize gradually from the beginning of the year's slowdown, and on the other hand, the price level is still high.

The subtle changes in these macroeconomic data make policymakers' concerns about the slowdown in economic growth gradually give way to concerns about rising prices, which is the main reason for the central bank to increase interest rates at the moment.

Zhu Baoliang, deputy director of the Ministry of economic information of the state information center, said that in September, China's CPI may continue to rise. The main reason is that food prices continue to uplink in September. Although the tail factor that has caused CPI's year-on-year growth rate has weakened, the price of food is still the driving force of price upward.

He predicted that CPI growth in September will remain at a high level of around 3.5%.

Zhu Jianfang, chief economist of CITIC Securities, said that CPI was expected to rise by 3.6% in September, up 0.5% from the same month.

As food prices continued to rise in September, food prices rose by around 1.3%, while non food prices rose by 0.1%. In general, CPI was expected to rise by 0.5% in September.

Yuan Gangming, a researcher at Tsinghua University's China and world economic research center, said that CPI will reach 3.6% in September, while the possibility of downlink in October will be 3.5%.

The main reason for the high level of CPI is the rise of vegetable and food prices.

Some analysts pointed out that whether or not the September CPI will create a new high in the new year, with the gradual fading of the tail effect, the overall slowdown of price rise at the end of the year has already been expected. Therefore, the industry analysts basically have no objection to the realization of the 3% price target for the whole year.

However, due to the sharp rise in the price trend of agricultural products before the middle of next year, and the deepening of the asset bubble, the acceleration of urban employment pay has accelerated, so that next year, especially in the first half of the year, the CPI increase is likely to further increase. Therefore, in the majority of analysis institutions, "the real inflation test is next year".

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Agency forecast: will the fourth quarter economic growth slow down?

The parties predict that the G D P will grow more than 9% in the three quarter, but then the economic growth rate will further slow down in the four quarter due to the bottom of the current cycle of economic growth.

The latest report released by CITIC Securities predicts that industry will grow by 13.5% over the same period in September. According to the corresponding changes in industry and other industries, it is estimated that GDP will be 9.1% in the third quarter.

Zhu Jianfang, chief macroeconomic analyst at CITIC Securities, said that as the holiday effect will drive consumption growth, domestic demand growth in September will pick up, which will increase by about 18.6% compared to the same period last year. Taking into account the base factor, the growth rate of imports and exports is expected to decline. In September, exports increased by 23.8% and imports increased by 18.9% over the same period in September. Although the growth rate of investment in manufacturing industry has slowed down, the investment in infrastructure projects and affordable housing has accelerated. The growth rate of investment in September is basically flat with that in August, and the investment in fixed assets in 1 to September increased by 24.6% over the same period last year.

Orient Securities predicted that GDP grew by 9.5% in the three quarter.

The broker issued a report that although the "energy saving and emission reduction" will cause a slight pullback in industrial growth, the industrial added value in September is expected to grow by 13.6% over the same period last year.

However, the acceleration of government investment will drive investment to stop. Seasonal factors will increase consumption growth. It is estimated that fixed investment will increase by 24.8% in September, and consumption growth will reach 19%.

Wang Jian, Secretary General of the China macroeconomics society, believes that the growth rate of GDP will slow down in the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter.

He said that this was mainly caused by insufficient demand.

First of all, in terms of consumption, although the consumption trend is obvious this year, it is also in the upstream channel, but its rising stamina is not enough.

Consumption is expected to show a more stable trend in the fourth quarter.

Secondly, in terms of exports, although this year's rebound is obvious, but the impact of the international situation, there is little room for improvement, and the future trend is not very clear.

Senior economist Lu Zheng commissar of Xingye Bank said that the rebound in industrial value added by heavy industry may be promoted to a certain extent before the deadline of "energy saving and emission reduction" under the pressure of "grabbing production"; more stable investment and "4 trillion closing inspectors" forced some projects to be launched or accelerated; retail data rebounded by the possible termination of the expected impact of the preferential policies on cars, and the driving of the last train and the Mid Autumn Festival; and the export has already entered the "alpine downhill" channel.

Lu said that the rebound in growth figures in August and September may be temporary.

There may be a significant acceleration in the fourth quarter.

He said that in the context of the weakening of the recovery of major economies, the financing of real estate enterprises and local financing platforms have been strictly controlled, and "energy conservation and emission reduction" has been limited to small businesses. If there is still "overheating", that is the real "Chinese miracle".