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There Are Few Winners In The Market That Plummeted And Plummeted.

2010/11/22 14:47:00 43

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Wang Yuebo, the owner of China's most important cotton growing plant in Dezhou, Shandong, is the biggest cotton processing enterprise in China. The excitement for 8 days has not yet recovered.

"Who would have thought that the cotton price would fall to the top and then fall down.

Wang Yuebo even said this year's cotton market is like a big play, "ups and downs, thrilling."

The night before, he had a sleepless night, and finally decided to sell all the rest of his cotton to the world's largest cotton mill Wei Qiao textile (hereinafter referred to as "Wei cotton"), although the fifth price cut in 8 days, Wei cotton's cotton price has dropped to 28 thousand and 300 yuan / ton, and the cost of his cotton is still 30 thousand and 500 yuan / ton.

He lost 880 thousand yuan on the sale alone.

While talking to reporters, Wang Yuebo pressed the phone to collect the first few sales orders, and then smiled apologetically: "the most worried thing is that the cotton mill can not support it, so I can beat the water with these hard money."

In the tumble and tumble of cotton market, Wang Yuebo and his cotton company are like a boat in a big wave, and they are still going forward despite their ups and downs.

Dezhou City, Wucheng county and its surrounding areas, is now like a "storm eye".

As an important cotton distributing center in China, the cold and warm weather is showing here in this round of agricultural products.

19, Wucheng County, Yang Zhuang Township, a cotton processing enterprises row upon row.

Today, as cotton prices fall sharply, it is also quite depressed here.

The taxi driver pointed to the two sides of the road. There used to be a cotton collecting truck everywhere. "Now you can't see a car."

Wang Yuebo's cotton industry is one of the largest.

18, the purchase price of Wei cotton dropped 500 yuan per ton. After a night of speculation, Wang Yuebo resolutely decided to sell all the stock to Wei cotton on 19 th.

"Do not say 500 yuan, that is, another 1000 yuan, and also to sell ah."

This is the market.

Cotton prices are still not bottomed out. If you want to control risks, you have to clear all the stocks. Nobody cares how high your cost will be.

To Wang Yuebo's great feeling, more than 300 cotton trucks were queued up before the 3 cotton gathering on the same day.

Its background is, 8 days from 11 to 19, the purchase price of Wei cotton is reduced by 3200 yuan per ton, and cotton processing enterprises have plunged into the whirlpool of panic selling.

The reason why this year's cotton market is a big play is that its ups and downs are full of dramatic elements.

At the end of August this year, when the new cotton was not listed, the price of seed cotton exceeded 3.8 yuan per catty, much higher than in previous years.

According to past rules, the cotton price of new cotton will gradually drop after listing, but this year is not so.

More than 70 days ago, in September 10th, the first day of new cotton went on sale, the price of seed cotton was as high as 4.2 yuan per catty.

This is beyond the expectation of most people.

Do you accept it or not?

Wang Yuebo made a more unexpected decision - as long as the price of new cotton is less than 5 yuan / Jin, no matter how much money it is, no matter how high the water content of seed cotton is, how much is it?

Because domestic cotton output decreased this year, and the profit of cotton mill increased last year.

Spinning enterprises

Crazy increase ingots, will inevitably lead to imbalance between supply and demand, cotton prices will inevitably rise.

Based on this, although the surrounding cotton mills because of the high price dare not accept or receive less, but Wang Yuebo has made a big takeover.

Cotton prices rose during the acquisition process, and seed cotton rose from 4.2 yuan to 7.5 yuan per catty, and the faster it rose.

Wang Yuebo was not without hesitation.

There were 3 pause in the cotton business of his cotton company. The first time was when the price of seed cotton rose to 5.5 yuan per catty, second times at 6.1 yuan and third times at 7.3 yuan.

"Because the higher the price of cotton, the less heart.

The so-called high place is coldness.

But the cotton price trend of every short break has given him the confidence to make full acquisitions.

His company collected 500 tons of cotton a week and processed it into lint and watched carefully.

Cotton prices rose again after a week and the profits were considerable.

Rise!

The bull market has been pushing the cotton industry chain to tighten cotton prices repeatedly.

Three grade leather cotton price once touched 33 thousand yuan / ton, this cotton is "go crazy".

At this point, people have locked the target price of 35 thousand yuan / ton, or even higher.

In an optimistic "rise",

Plunge

Arrive unexpectedly.

In November 11th, Wei cotton lowered the purchase price of grade three lint by 200 yuan / ton to 31 thousand and 300 yuan / ton.

As the largest cotton spinning enterprise in the world, Wei cotton's purchase price is the spot benchmark price of cotton in the whole country and even in the world.

Its background is that the previous trading day US cotton futures are down.

There were also grapevine news that the development and Reform Commission was stationed in Wei cotton, forcing it to cut cotton prices.

On the first day of the callback, Wang Yuebo was not vigilant. He thought it was a normal pullback in the market.

But then futures prices quickly fell below 30 thousand yuan / ton, which shocked him.

"This is definitely a sharp fall."

He reminded himself that this year he always "focused on futures and made spot".

Subsequently, Wei cotton lowered the purchase price 500 yuan / ton for the second time, and the spot price dropped to 30 thousand and 800 yuan / ton.

At that time, many cotton companies around the country were still on the sidelines, but Wang Yuebo decided to ship the goods and sold 300 tons that day.

National and even

Global

Cotton merchants at this time locked their eyes on Zouping Wei bridge.

On the third day, the purchase price of Wei cotton was reduced by 1000 yuan / ton.

Wang Yuebo congratulated himself on reducing his deficit by 300 thousand yuan and shipping on the other side.

"One day is 300 thousand yuan, isn't it amazing?"

On that day, he ordered another 300 tons.

On the fourth day, the purchase price of Wei cotton was reduced by 1000 yuan / ton to 28 thousand and 800 yuan / ton.

This price has been stable for 4 days. On the 18 day, Wei cotton fifth degrees cut 500 yuan / ton, and spot price dropped to 28 thousand and 300 yuan / ton.

The market has plummeted, almost giving no breathing space.

The cotton that Wang Yuebo sent to Jiangsu and Zhejiang customers last week is still 31 thousand yuan / ton, less than a week, and sold to three cotton lint of Wei cotton on 18, it can only be 28 thousand and 300 yuan / ton.

"This is the crash."

He saw the current cotton market.

In such a market, the best strategy is clearance.

Before the crash, he had 1000 tons of cotton stock, but he emptied it within 8 days.

There are few winners in the market that has plummeted and plummeted.

Although the cotton market in the early days rose sharply, and when the fall was also stopped, Wang Yuebo admitted that his earnings this year were less than that of last year.

The reason is that this year's cost is too high, and the loan from the bank increased by 10 million yuan over last year, but the processing volume is only half that of last year.

Especially after more than a week of slump, his profits have shrunk.

According to Wang Yuebo observation, most of the cotton processing enterprises around the world are losing money recently.

Some other factories are still stockpiling goods, but the prospect of profit and loss is uncertain.

Ma Junkai, Deputy Secretary General of Dezhou Cotton Association, said that the acquisition of seed cotton in Dezhou has all stagnated.

The reason is very simple. If the seed cotton price is below 5 yuan per catty, cotton farmers will not sell it at all; if the price is above 5 yuan, cotton processing enterprises will not accept it at all.

Seed cotton 5 yuan / Jin, the corresponding lint price should be 25 thousand yuan / ton, and now the market price is 28 thousand and 300 yuan, the market is far from bottom.

Cotton mills are more scare than cotton processing enterprises.

Because of the sharp reduction in raw material prices, the price of cotton yarn has obviously declined, and its product inventory is generally high.

The message from Wang Yuebo's downstream customers is, "do not drop the price of cotton again, and feel a bit unable to sustain it."

This made Wang Yuebo start to worry about the safety of his unpaid loans, so the main task at present is to speed up the collection of accounts.

Cotton prices skyrocketed and plummeted in a short time. Why?

Li Peien, a management consultant who has long been concerned about the agricultural industry, analyzed the phenomenon of speculation in the two months.

Wang Yuebo also confirmed this view.

He reflects that this year's customers have added many new faces, which were not cotton distributors before, but recently they entered the cotton market. These people are the main force of the current market's ups and downs.

"Judging from the total value of society, this hype itself does not produce value, but it does great harm to the whole economy."

Li Peien said that only a few people benefited from the slumping market, while the vast number of consumers took on the consequences of rising prices.

What should I do?

"Regulating prices is only a starting point."

Li Peien believes that the underlying problem is that there is not much capital investment in China today.

The real estate market is subject to heavy policy regulation. In the early stage of the coal market, the social capital has been completely squeezed out through the comprehensive reorganization of state assets, and the investment industry is rather hard. These funds are constantly looking for "exports", so they are eyeing agricultural products.

For idle capital, we should not just block it.

Li Peien said that from the perspective of market economy, the key to the problem is how to guide it.

From a macro perspective, we must improve the industrial investment environment.

Therefore, the proper way to solve the problem is to pform the way of governance, optimize the investment environment through tax reduction and other measures, optimize the environment of innovation by connotative growth; meanwhile, increase the investment cost of idle capital in the mobile link.

Putting pressure on each other will play a fundamental role. "

Li Peien said.