Technology Rebound &Nbsp; Whether To Reverse Is Still Needed To Be Observed.

Overshoot and rebound ICE cotton Slightly higher

As China's cotton prices continued to rise during the Asian session, this sentiment spread to the US market. The market generally believed that China's demand remained strong, although the 25 day the US would be closed for Thanksgiving, but the oversold buying still kept the US cotton bottomed up, and the main contract in March was 4.8 cents to 116.59 cents / pound. At present, the US cotton mainly follows the trend of China's cotton price, and the Chinese factor is the key to the rise and fall of cotton prices. Therefore, it is recommended to pay attention to the changes in the Chinese market. Only when the Chinese market fully digested the bad policy, the cotton prices will probably rebound. Cotton price Transfer to market.

Technically, although cotton prices have stopped rising and Zhongyang has closed, cotton prices are still being suppressed by short-term averages, and the downward trend has not changed. The short term moving average continues to descend to keep the bears down. Meanwhile, the KD and MACD indexes continue to fall short. The MACD index continues to grow, and the downward trend will continue. It is suggested that the idea of keeping short positions will remain unchanged. But the KD index is showing signs of bottoming out. If the March contract rose for 3 consecutive days and stood 124 cents per pound, then the reversion will end, otherwise cotton prices will continue to fall.

On Wednesday, domestic cotton prices rebounded, and the support of 25000 yuan / ton was verified, but the popularity of the whole spot market is still weak. It is still necessary to verify whether the rebound can reverse the current decline. The current decline is mainly based on Speculative capital Overly pessimistic about the macro face, with the end of regulation, Zheng cotton has a great chance of rebounding. If today's cotton price is stabilized by 26300 yuan / ton, Zheng cotton will rebound and challenge the 27000 yuan / ton pressure level again. Otherwise the downtrend will continue, and 25000 yuan / ton will be challenged again. (Wanda futures Urumqi Sales Department Du Ying)

Technology rebound is not surprising.

Overnight, the international market temporarily rebounded from weakness. ICE cotton rebounded sharply in the three day of a row. The market was mainly driven by technological factors and low textile buying, and no other major changes took place today.

Last night, Thanksgiving holiday was coming. The US job market improved and consumer confidence index hit 5 months. New high news made the market optimistic and helped the market recover the losses it suffered the day before. The US Department of Labor reported that the number of initial jobless claims decreased by 34 thousand to 407 thousand last week, the lowest since July 2008. However, US durable goods orders fell 3.3% to a nearly 2 year high, while us new home sales fell 8.1% less than expected in October. This also made the market better for the day, crude oil rose 3.2%, and other metals and agricultural products and soft goods went up. Last night, the rebound in the international cotton industry was mainly due to the revised demand after the technology overshoot, and the recent American centralized procurement in China. But the continuous weakening of the Chinese market at this stage and the mentality of the spot traders will not only affect China's disk, but also play a decisive role in the ICE disk.

There was no limit to the delivery of the contract, the maximum contract fell by 11 cents, the main force in March closed down 6 cents, since the high point cotton decline of 26%, the Chinese cotton prices continued to decline, the market is still likely to fall, based on the recent decline in prices, the United States cotton to China's spot price decline is smaller, the basis of the decline is far lower than the decline in cotton prices, and the recent cotton demand in China is still very active, the United States cotton exports are still very active, the United States cotton exports will maintain rapid growth, data reality, as of November 11th, this year China signed a total of 928 thousand tons of cotton, the cumulative shipment of 195 thousand tons, about 21% of the contracted volume, compared with 59% last year, while the same period last year 59%, late China to make up for the supply gap, accelerate the pace of imports inevitable. In the international cotton market, the contract entered last December.

Volume of nearly 4 million 500 thousand hands, fluctuations in the market increased, and the sharp increase in positions, which is likely to be seen by the government as speculation excessive speculation, the capital side of the Zhejiang Yongan, the relative advantage of the empty market, the spot market acquisition basically stagnation, the price of lint has no market, a large textile enterprises in Shandong continue to lower the quotations 3 to 26500 yuan, there is still a further reduction possible, policy, the NDRC clearly pointed out that "speculation is the direct promotion of the price of agricultural products", announced the next key hit area, named the green beans, cotton products oil, the three major exchanges on the industry policy continue to implement heavy punches, cancel all varieties of open warehouse clearance fees, there are still some measures to be introduced in the future. Zheng cotton yesterday after the opening of the shock, the market rebounded, the deal was released. Operational emphasis on policy environment, high opening and low going inevitable, the opening 26000 above can be short selling operation, stop 500-1000 points, the expected profit margin in 3000-6000 points, investors self examine, do a good job in capital management. (pioneering futures Dong Shuangwei)

Cotton futures are rising, being promoted by technical factors.

According to New York's November 24th news, ICE cotton futures rebounded higher on Wednesday, showing a technical oversold market, and the prospect of increased demand in Asia helped cotton prices end in a two week downward trend and fell more than 26% in two weeks. "I think cotton and other goods are sold at the same level," said Jobe Moss, an analyst at MCM. Index ICE the cotton contract in March rose 4.80 cents, or 4.3%, at $1.1659 a pound, close to the upper end of the 1.1113-1.1771 US dollar in the intraday trading range. The rebounding period has become the biggest commodity of Reuters-Jefferies CRB index.

Preliminary data show that turnover is relatively high on Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday. As of 2028GMT, total turnover was 27038, up 50% over the same period a year ago. The CBRC urged banks to provide special support for agriculture in the face of a serious shortage of agricultural products such as corn, cotton and sugar. Since then, the Chinese market has begun to accumulate kinetic energy. Country Hedging analyst Sterling Smith said: "this is the first time the Chinese authorities have admitted that they are facing shortages. I think this will bring good support to cotton. " China Zhengzhou commodity futures exchange index May cotton contract rose 190 yuan, at 25755 yuan per ton. In recent weeks, cotton has been hit hard, and investors are increasingly worried that China will take radical measures to curb inflation at a 25 year high. The cotton contract in March has fallen by more than 26% since it rose above $1.50 a pound earlier this month. However, signs of recent emergence suggest that the two week's collapse will lose momentum. One trader pointed out that the steady decline in volume is one of the signs. Moss said: "I think the market has bottomed out for the time being." "I think the price will rise, or it will rise to 1.25-1.30 dollars, but it will not be close to those two weeks ago."