Raw Material Price Turbulence &Nbsp; Chemical Fiber Enterprises Will Face High Cost Era Again.

　　 In the first three quarters of this year, Chemical fiber output 22 million 366 thousand and 600 tons, an increase of 14.25%; Total profit 16 billion 822 million yuan, an increase of 68%. In terms of sub sectors, spandex is lower than the first half of last year, and this year, the start-up rate is relatively stable, the output growth is the highest and the profit growth is also higher. Polyester has been making obvious improvement in the profitability of polyester filament since the end of last year, and the overall profit growth has been the highest. Viscose has been trapped in the high price of raw materials, and its output and profit have only increased slightly.

　　 After October, the sharp rise and fall of industrial chain prices made the industry very hurt: many factors such as energy saving and emission reduction in summer and autumn, low industrial inventories, encountered a sudden outbreak of cotton prices, the replacement effect of cotton fiber, and the rapid expansion of demand, and promoted the overall rise of chemical fiber prices. In addition, the US loose monetary policy has led to the continued depreciation of the US dollar and domestic inflation pressure, and commodities are favored by market funds. Hot money Speculation of cotton, PTA and other futures to promote spot prices, so that prices rise far beyond the demand level. Closely followed by policy regulation and capital withdrawal, prices fell rapidly. Volatile raw material prices make the downstream textile enterprises at a loss, seriously affecting the order and fear of a huge impact on the future trend of the industry.

Next year, because of limited production, tight supply and demand, and continuous increase in labor costs, cotton prices will continue to run high after returning to rational prices. Similarly, for the petrochemical industry chain, the bulk of raw material prices will remain weak in the US dollar's loose monetary policy for a long time. China will remain at a high level in the expected pattern of high inflation under the high growth rate of liquidity. Chemical fiber enterprises will face the high cost era again.

Demand side, because the cost is higher, the process of replenishment is gradually over, downstream production enterprises will be more cautious about the purchase of chemical fiber raw materials, and the profit will also gradually decline. At the same time, because of the sharp rise and fall of raw material prices, downstream weaving enterprises dare not take orders. The appreciation of RMB and inflation pressure make textile domestic demand and export not optimistic. The chemical fiber industry is also not very optimistic.

The 12th Five-Year plan of the industry will mainly adjust the chemical fiber industry from four aspects, including product structure, capital structure, scale structure and regional structure. The adjustment of product mix will include a substantial increase in the differential rate of chemical fiber, up to 60% in 2015. The industrialization of biomass fiber and high new technology fiber will continue to be promoted. The production capacity of high-tech fiber will increase from 70 thousand tons to 140 thousand tons (including bamboo fiber, including 6000 tons of carbon fiber, 14000 tons of aramid fiber, 7000 tons of polyphenylene sulfide), and other new types of polyester and special fibers, such as PI and PBO, have made breakthroughs to achieve industrialization level. In addition, it is also encouraging large-scale chemical fiber enterprises with capital and regional development advantages to integrate their own raw materials into the upstream, extending the industrial chain, promoting mergers and acquisitions, improving industrial concentration, and developing upstream raw materials for chemical fiber, so as to solve the problem of insufficient supply of raw materials for long-term industrial development.

According to the new industrial plan, we will identify several investment themes that conform to the direction of Industrial Development: special fiber - the opportunity for Yantai spandex to be put into production in the next half of next year; industrial fiber - concerned about the advantages of Halliday in the field of automobile wire and the continuous expansion of yfu shares. We are concerned about the long chain of industries, which is lower than the price fluctuation of Rongsheng petrochemical and St Guanghua (Hengyi petrochemical).