PTA Futures Showed A Narrow Trend Of Consolidation.

After a brief rally in the early part of this month, this week

In the long run, global liquidity still supports PTA's continued upward trend, but the medium-term trend has weakened.

The author believes that the adjustment of domestic monetary policy and the actual consumption of terminal textile and apparel are the two major factors that affect the price trend of PTA in the future.

The change of monetary policy is the focus of the market.

Macro policy, especially monetary policy, has always been an important factor affecting the price of PTA. In the November policy led market, the second round of quantitative easing launched by the Federal Reserve was the main factor affecting the first phase of the surge.

Fundamentally speaking, the start of the November surge was mainly influenced by the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy implemented by the Federal Reserve.

What is the impact of the new round of quantitative easing monetary policy? Let us first review the impact of the last round of quantitative easing monetary policy.

Since the end of 2008 to March 2010, the Fed has purchased $1 trillion and 750 billion of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. The result is that the financial market has recovered from the "one millennium" financial crisis in a year or so, and the PTA price has risen from 4500 yuan / ton to 8500 yuan / ton, or more than 88%.

Of course, there are also some factors such as the return of normal value after overfall and the easing monetary policy adopted by other countries, but the increase in US dollar liquidity is clearly dominant.

From the point of view of the amount of money, the second round of quantitative easing policy is only the size of the previous round of 1/3, which lasted for only 8 months. In addition, other countries, especially emerging economies, began to tighten liquidity, and their impact on the commodity market should be significantly smaller than the previous round.

The price rise of PTA is finally achieved through the cost push of hot money inflow and the rise in international crude oil prices. Its increase is about 10%, which is still normal. The increase of over 20% in a week is obviously unreasonable.

After soaring in November,

The central bank continued to use interest rates and raise the deposit reserve ratio in a month's time to regulate liquidity, which is similar to that in June 2008.

It is not yet clear whether the intensive monetary policy changes will lead to a long-term upward trend in PTA, but the probability of a central line adjustment is very high. The adjustment time is expected to last for more than two months.

The central economic work conference is about to be held. In 2011, the possibility of turning monetary policy into stability is very great.

If China's M2 growth rate falls further from the current 19% to around 17%, then the PTA price fall time will be extended.

Cost push temporarily does not support PTA's sharp rise.

From the upstream point of view of the industrial chain, the price of crude oil has steadily advanced to close to 90 US dollars per barrel, and the price of PX has risen to over 1300 yuan / ton. The rising price of raw materials in the upper reaches of the PTA price will form a certain support for the price of PTA, but it is not enough to push the price of the crude oil up sharply.

The United States, the world's largest consumer of crude oil, accounts for more than 70% of the oil consumption structure, and gasoline is the main oil product. The consumption of gasoline is mainly concentrated in summer, and the probability of seasonal rise in crude oil prices in summer is greater.

The consumption of distillate oil in winter is dominant. Under the suppression of high inventories, the consumption of distillate oil in winter is not enough to support the continuous rise of crude oil prices. The price of crude oil has increased after breaking through 90 US dollars / barrel.

Judging from the current price ratio between PTA and crude oil, it has dropped to normal intervals and has gradually stabilized.

The rising cost of crude oil has limited cost drivers to PTA.

The price of PX has risen in recent days, and has broken through the running range of 1200 - 1300 US dollars / ton.

Although the import price of PX is rising again, the production profit of PTA is still at a higher level. The impact of PX price rise on PTA price is smaller than that of downstream market. The demand for polyester Market in the lower reaches of December is the main factor affecting the price of PTA.

At present, PTA production profit has dropped sharply with the price drop, but it is still higher than the normal level. Driven by high profits, PTA production enterprises will not easily reduce the operating rate, and the market supply will be very sufficient in the future.

From all aspects of the upstream industry chain, although the recent trend of crude oil and PX has been rising steadily, the cost support to PTA is limited. PTA futures have a higher probability of extending the downward trend after the technical rebound.

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Terminal demand is coming to the test, or PTA will continue the trend of callback.

Maintaining the high opening rate in the early stage of downstream polyester production is an important factor to support the soaring price of PTA, and whether the late end textile and apparel market can withstand the test of the market in this peak consumption season will directly affect the operation of upstream polyester and PTA market.

In the November rising market, polyester enterprises accumulated a lot of PTA stock. But in recent months, polyester production in China showed a downward trend. Some PTA stock existed in circulation in the form of inventory, and has not been converted to polyester products.

The recent sharp rise in the upstream clothing market will definitely affect terminal consumption. At present, the downstream of the industrial chain has been unable to bear the pressure of upstream raw material prices. The number of orders in polyester factories has declined, which has also had a negative effect on the consumption of PTA.

As the price of cotton and PTA has dropped to the top, the atmosphere of hoarding and hoarding chemical fibers in the domestic market has begun to weaken. The situation of tight supply in the market has eased, and the trend of the price drop of polyester staple fiber and filament will continue.

This year, the appreciation of RMB and other factors have had a negative impact on the export of textile and garment products. After July, the export of China's textile yarns, fabrics and products showed an obvious downward trend.

With the gradual weakening of the strong demand in the polyester market, the PTA market will step into the adjustment cycle and the price will gradually stabilize. If the consumption situation of the terminal textile and garment market is poor, the depth of the PTA callback will exceed the market expectations.

Based on the above analysis, the general keynote of monetary policy next year and the actual consumption situation of terminal textiles and clothing are the two key factors that affect the recent PTA market trend. It is expected that both will form a negative impact on the market. The duration of the PTA futures price callback may last more than 2 months, with the main force 1105 fluctuating in the range or between 8600 and 9800 yuan / ton.