Export Peak Has Passed &Nbsp; Cost Pressure Will Appear At The End Of The Year.

　　 According to customs statistics, 1~10 months of this year, China Textiles and garments The total export volume of US $167 billion 610 million has exceeded that of last year.總水平，同比實現(xiàn)22.9%的增長。進口161.8億美元，同比增長19.1%。進、出口增幅間的差距逐步縮小。進入四季度，出口高峰已過，出口額開始回落。10月紡織品服裝出口178億美元，回落至200億美元以下。當月出口同比增長21.5%，在去年基數(shù)低的情況下，增幅較9月份提升2個百分點。當月進口15.7億美元，增長19.4%，增幅較9月提升了1.4個百分點。如今，離全年收官還有最后兩個月，在這兩個月中，隨著原材料價格提升、人民幣升值的傳導作用逐步彰顯，整體出口將面臨減速，預(yù)計全年的增長幅度在15%~20%之間。

Yes European and American markets Export deceleration

In October, China's exports to the European Union, the United States, Japan and ASEAN all increased. Exports to Europe, the United States and Japan declined, with the European Union market falling the fastest, falling by more than 20%, and Japan's decline was the smallest, falling by only 7%. Exports to ASEAN showed an increase of 31.1% over the same period and a year-on-year growth rate of 9.5%. The average unit price of exports continued to rise in the main market, and the growth rate was all expanded earlier.

EU: in October, China exported $3 billion 230 million to the EU, an increase of 21.9%, an increase of 5.6 percentage points lower than that in September. Textile exports grew by 11.3% and clothing exports increased by 25.2%. The export volume of garments (knitted and woven garments) increased by 11.7%, and the export unit price rose by 11.4%. In 1~10 months, the total export to the European Union was US $36 billion 360 million, an increase of 22%. Among them, textile exports amounted to 7 billion 990 million US dollars, an increase of 27.4%, and clothing exports of US $28 billion 370 million, an increase of 20.5%. Knitted and woven garments exported 6 billion 260 million pieces (sets), an increase of 16.5%, the cumulative export average unit price continued to rise, increased by 3%.

The United States: in October, China exported $3 billion 70 million to the US, an increase of 20.2%, of which textiles and clothing grew by 15.3% and 21.7% respectively. The export volume of knitted and woven garments reached 490 million pieces (sets), an increase of 12.1%, and the export unit price continued to rise, rising by 9.8%. In 1~10 months, exports to the US amounted to 28 billion 340 million US dollars, an increase of 29%, of which 7 billion 100 million of textile exports and 21 billion 240 million of clothing exports increased by 35.1% and 27.1% respectively. The export volume of knitted and woven garments reached 4 billion 840 million pieces, increased by 28%, and the average unit price decreased by 0.4%, which tended to stop falling.

Japan: in October, China exported 2 billion 290 million US dollars to Japan, and a 8.8% increase over the same period. It was mainly driven by the growth of clothing exports, clothing increased by 15.7%, while textiles decreased by 17.3%, the decline was earlier than the previous expansion. The export volume of knitted and woven garments increased by 3.1% and the unit price increased by 12.7%. 1~10 exports to Japan totaled 18 billion 160 million US dollars, an increase of 2.7%. Among them, textile exports amounted to 3 billion 180 million US dollars, an increase of 4.1%, and clothing exports of US $14 billion 980 million, an increase of 2.4%. The export volume of knitted and woven garments decreased by 2%, and the export unit price increased by 4.1%.

ASEAN market: in October, China exported $1 billion 270 million to ASEAN, an increase of 31.1%, of which the export of yarn fabric increased by 51.5%, the yarn unit price increased by 11.8%, and the fabric increased by 15.1%. 1~10 exports to ASEAN 11 billion 390 million US dollars, an increase of 37%, of which the export of yarn fabrics was US $6 billion 320 million, an increase of 43%, the average export price of yarn increased by 19.2%, and the unit price of fabric exports increased by 7.7%.

Slowdown in general trade mode

In October, exports of major trade patterns maintained a relatively fast growth rate, which was larger than that in September. General trade grew by 22.8%, an increase of only 0.3 percentage points over that of September; the growth of processing trade increased by 11.8%, an increase of 4.2 percentage points; and the growth of small border trade increased by 30.1% and 7 percentage points. The general trade export growth slowed down significantly. In 1~10 months, the total trade volume increased by 124 billion 630 million US dollars, an increase of 27%, the fastest growth in the main trade mode, and the overall growth of exports by 19.4 percentage points. During the same period, the export of processing trade increased by 9%, of which the processing of imported materials increased by 14.5%, and the processing of raw materials decreased by 4%. Exports of small frontier trade dropped by 0.3%.

The proportion of cumulative exports of processing trade to total exports fell from 21.8% in 2008 to 20.8% in 2009, down to 18.7% this year (1~10 months). At the same time, the proportion of exports of general trade increased gradually, from 69.1% in 2008 to 74.4% this year.

Garment exports increase faster than textiles

Since March, the export growth of clothing has been lagging behind textiles, but the gap between the two has narrowed every month. By October, the export growth of clothing exceeded 7 months later. In October, clothing exports amounted to $11 billion 510 million in the month, an increase of 23%, an increase of 3.9 percentage points compared with September, and textile exports of 6 billion 290 million US dollars, an increase of 18.9%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points lower than that in September. The average export price of the main products increased further. Yarn and fabric increased by 27.6% and 15.1% respectively, representing an increase of 9 percentage points and 0.8 percentage points respectively compared with September. The unit price of knitted and woven garments increased by 10.7%, and the increase was 0.4 percentage points higher than that in September.

In 1~10 months, textile exports amounted to 62 billion 630 million US dollars, an increase of 29.4%, clothing exports of US $104 billion 980 million, an increase of 19.4%, and the growth rate of clothing exports was still lower than that of textiles. In textiles, exports of three main categories of products have increased rapidly, and the growth of yarn, fabric and finished goods has increased by 28.4%, 30.5% and 25.7% respectively. In garments, the total export volume of knitted and woven garments increased by 14%, and the total export volume increased by 18.8%. The main commodity continues to rise in the global average unit price of cumulative exports, and shows a faster pace of primary products upgrading, semi finished products, and relatively slow product upgrading. The yarn is raised by 12.5%, the fabric is increased by 9.2%, and the garments (including knitted and woven garments) are raised by 4.2%.

Import growth of fur leather clothing has been greatly improved.

In October, China's textile and clothing imports increased by 19.4%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points over September. Among them, the growth of textiles was 14.3%, 0.4 percentage points higher than that in September, and the growth rate of clothing was as high as 67%, which was 20 percentage points higher than that in September, of which the import of wool and leather garments increased by more than one fold, and that of woven garments increased by more than 90%.

In 1~10 months, textile imports totaled 14 billion 200 million US dollars and clothing imports amounted to US $1 billion 970 million, an increase of 17.7% and 30.7% respectively. Imports of yarn, fabric and finished goods in textiles increased by 28.6%, 9.5% and 22.2% respectively. Among them, the import of cotton yarn and fabrics increased the most, with an increase of 18.9%. Import price rise, yarn import price increased by 18.1%, fabric increased by 8.1%. The total import price of knitting and woven garments increased by 25.3%.

Steady growth of chemical fiber imports

In October, China imported only 960 thousand tons of cotton, which fell to its lowest point in the year, the first decline in the same period last year, a decrease of 18.9%, and a decrease of 52% in the ring ratio. But the import price is still high, reaching 2130 US dollars / ton, an increase of 47% over the same period last year.

In the month of October, imports of natural fibers, such as silk and wool tops, also dropped. Because the price fluctuation of chemical fiber is not intense this year, the substitution effect of cotton is increasing gradually. The import volume has resumed growth again after 6 consecutive months of decline, and its growth rate has exceeded 10%, reaching 11.8%. In 1~10 months, the import volume and value of raw materials increased by 43.4% and 78.4% respectively, and the average unit price increased by 24.4%. Among them, the unit price of silk imports increased by 63%, cotton increased by 38.4%, and chemical fiber increased by 14.4%.

With the gradual slowdown of exports, the import of textile machinery is also facing a slowdown. In October, the import of textile machinery was US $300 million, though the year-on-year increase was still 83%, but the ring decreased by 29% compared with September. The ratio of knitting machines and looms of the main imported products decreased by 51% and 41% respectively. Imports from EU and Japan fell by 31%. In 1~10 months, the total import volume of textile machinery increased by US $3 billion 330 million, an increase of 65.5% over the same period.

Editor's comment: the high price of raw materials is the main problem that currently plagus export enterprises. The rising of natural fiber, especially cotton prices, has the most significant impact on exports. In the first 3 quarters, the import volume and value of cotton increased by 49% and 85.6% respectively after the rise of international cotton prices and the gap between domestic supply and demand. In the four quarter, the spread of cotton prices began to appear. Most enterprises began to take a wait-and-see attitude because of the uncertainty about the cotton price trend. The majority of cotton spinning enterprises participating in the 108th Canton fair said that the current law of self rescue is to abandon the more stable medium and long list of profits, instead of receiving small bills or suspending orders. The decline in demand and the policy of stabilizing cotton prices have also led to a decline in cotton imports.