Zhou Xiaochuan First Read The "Pool Theory" &Nbsp, &Nbsp; Negated The Currency Super Issue.
In early November, governor of the central bank Zhou Xiao Sichuan At the Caixin summit, the introduction of "hot money" into the pool aroused widespread speculation and discussion in the market. After more than a month, Zhou Xiaochuan first appeared in the evening of December 15th. unscramble 了 "Pool", He also pointed out that in recent two years, money supply has increased significantly, and the standard of measuring money supply is the core CPI.
Zhou Xiaochuan said that the typical pool is foreign exchange reserve, but there are different plates in the reserve, these plates can also be divided into different pools, some are to ensure import and export payments; some are prepared for the dividends of foreign-funded enterprises; others are prepared for the "hot money". After they come in, the central bank will be rid of 100% pairs, and the total amount should not have a negative impact on the national economy, but we do not prevent them from making money from the individual.
At present, there is market opinion that China exists.
Excessive currency
The problem.
Zhou Xiaochuan said that on the one hand, the proportion of generalized money to GDP in high savings countries and low savings countries is different. China is a high savings country, so M2 has a high proportion of GDP.
On the other hand, when the proportion of indirect financing is high, the proportion of broad money to GDP is high. The United States is a typical developed country with direct financing, while China's indirect financing is more important than that of the United States. Therefore, it is not appropriate to take China's M2 ratio to the US.
He believes that we must clearly define the concept of "super development".
The super economic issue of money is the concept of traditional planned economy, because the price is fixed at that time, and the price multiplied by physical quantity is money demand.
At the same time, there was no financial market and service market at that time, so there was a problem if the concept was used at that time.
From the present point of view, the core of CPI is that the money supply is too much or too small, because some prices are less related to money, such as imports of commodities, climate or other causes of price movements.
Zhou Xiaochuan said that we must face up to the obvious increase in the money supply caused by the global financial crisis in the past two years.
Since 2008, we have adopted an expansionary monetary policy, that is, "punching hard and making quick moves". All of these measures can not be overshoot. The key is that once this cycle enters the turning point, it is necessary to change direction in a timely manner so that it is not too excessive. On the one hand, it achieves the goal of successfully fighting the crisis, while the side effects are not too great.
Since the beginning of this year, the central bank has been using the reserve tools many times in the face of more market liquidity.
Zhou Xiaochuan said that if we want to observe the source of the liquidity of the entire economic system, if it is due to the recovery and growth of the trade surplus, or the growth of capital inflow, or the growth of FDI, this time, even if there is no higher price increase, we need to increase the momentum, so the role of this tool will play different roles.
(Shanghai Securities Daily)
Ye Jian interprets hot news
Monetary policy / bias
Zhou Xiaochuan, the first to interpret the "pool" in the evening of December 15th, pointed out that the money supply has increased significantly in the past two years. The standard of measuring the money supply is the core CPI.
Zhou Xiaochuan said that on the one hand, the proportion of generalized money to GDP in high savings countries and low savings countries is different. China is a high savings country, so M2 has a high proportion of GDP.
On the other hand, when the proportion of indirect financing is high, the proportion of broad money to GDP is high. The United States is a typical developed country with direct financing, and China's indirect financing is more important than that of the United States. Therefore, it is not appropriate to take China's M2 ratio to the US. "
"Zhou Xiaochuan said that we must face up to the obvious increase in the money supply caused by the global financial crisis in the past two years.
Since 2008, we have adopted an expansionary monetary policy, that is, "punching out the punch and pushing it fast". All of these measures can not be overshoot. The key is that once this cycle enters the turning point, it is necessary to change direction in a timely manner so that it is not too excessive. On the one hand, it achieves the goal of successfully fighting the crisis, while the side effects are not too great.
Zhou Xiaochuan said that if we want to observe the source of the liquidity of the entire economic system, if it is due to the recovery and growth of the trade surplus, or the growth of capital inflow, or the growth of FDI, this time, even if there is no higher price increase, we need to increase the momentum, so the role of this tool will play different roles.
Commenting: Zhou Xiaochuan's key words are "hedging" and "inflection point".
It is still in the hedging process.
Sha Nong explains hot news
Zhou Xiaochuan's definition is to tell people that "China can absorb all the liquidity brought about by the inflow of hot money"; Zhou Xiaochuan denied that the "super issue" currency clearly indicated that M2 had to grow, and the banknote printing machine had to work overtime to print the renminbi.
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