Macroeconomic Policy Is Not So Tight.

In the short term, preventing inflation is still a pressing priority; unless the economy tends to overheat, macro policy "

It may be difficult to get close to the real decision-making strategy.

Historically, China has seldom used the "tight" policy to restrict macroeconomic policies except in extreme cases.

Today, the "active fiscal policy" has continued, with its responsibilities more prominent, helping to improve the structure and adjusting the income distribution. The central government has also reminded local financing to avoid relapse. It is necessary to strengthen the management of local government debt and prevent the blind start of the "12th Five-Year" period.

Monetary policy has shifted from "moderately loose" to "steady". In essence, it has shifted from a super loose state to a neutral one.

Historically, China has been subconsciously sliding towards the loose side unless the extreme situation reappears.

In the future, there is a premise for such stability: to deal with the relationship between maintaining stable and rapid economic development, adjusting the economic structure and managing inflation expectations, and putting the overall level of stable prices in a more prominent position, enhancing the coordination, sustainability and endogenous driving force of economic development.

This shows that inflation prevention is still a pressing priority in the short term.

This will also be reflected in another major task of next year's economic work: the development of modern agriculture, and the guarantee of the development of modern agriculture.

The key to monetary and credit policies lies in the intensity and rhythm of implementation.

At the same time, the credit funds should be directed towards the real economy, especially the "three rural" and small and medium-sized enterprises.

Linked to "do a good job in coping with the international financial crisis impact package" and the "early 12th Five-Year investment project convergence", the senior economist of the Industrial Bank, Lu Zheng commissar, believes that this may mean that the "4 trillion" stimulus plan for 2009 -2010 will be included in the "12th Five-Year" plan.

Such a continuation may make it difficult to significantly reduce new credit in 2011.

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To this end, he concluded that the ultimate new credit limit is likely to fall on the upper limit of the forecast interval, that is, the M2 growth target is 16% and the new credit is 7 trillion.

This is somewhat less natural than this year.

According to the understanding of Caixin reporter, as part of the credit cooperative products have been incorporated into the table, taking into account the demand for renewal of infrastructure projects, this year's new credit is still more than several hundred billion yuan, probably less than 8 trillion yuan.

Such a scale is within the expectations of the decision making authorities.

Although the government can use economic, legal and even administrative means to control the price level in an all-round way, the risk of the policy lies in how to choose the basic factors that may trigger the price rise in the future reform, that is, the top design of the reform: the current price adjustment of the resources, the promotion of the factor price reform, the improvement of the individual income tax system, the expansion of the consumption of residents, and the coordination of the short-term goals of curbing inflation and so on.

Some other policy statements of this conference also deserve new comments.

Such as urbanization, the meeting put forward "to actively and steadily promote urbanization, rationally determine the functional orientation, industrial layout and development boundaries of large, medium and small cities and small towns, and form a new pattern of urbanization with basic public services and infrastructure integration and network development".

This path formulation has embodied the "12th Five-Year plan" proposal.

For domestic demand and external demand, the meeting put forward: "effectively play our comparative advantage in the international economic division of labor, and insist on equal emphasis on exports and imports."

This seems to be a function of desalting exports, but in fact, in the context of what is known as "rebalancing" in the international context, the current understanding of Chinese policymakers is to expand the scale of imports as the main responsibility, while "stabilizing and expanding external demand" will still be an excellent policy option in the future.

"Gradually forming a affordable housing system and commodity housing system conforming to the national conditions".

This shows that the central government's real estate policy is returning to the origin of China's housing monetization reform, that is, the dual operation of government protection and marketization.