Top Of Textile Materials

If we use a word to outline the textile materials market in 2010, it is insane.

With the heavy blow of the global financial crisis and stumbling into the post crisis era in 2010, the sequela of the crisis is still continuing. The recovery of the world economy has not really found the feeling. China's economy has rebounded first, creating another GDP myth.

However, after all, after the great crisis, all kinds of uncertain and abnormal factors are intertwined.

This year, under the influence of complicated factors, especially the hot money that is dying, textile raw materials, the leading textile industry, begin to be wild, like the mentally ill patients who are irrational, stirring up the whole industrial chain, and deeply testing the industry's coping ability.

Cotton prices hit a 15 year high

This year's cotton price boom is staggering, creating a new high in the past 15 years, breaking 20 thousand yuan / ton, leading to a 30 thousand yuan / ton mark.

Under the catalysis of the cotton spot market, in August and the first 8 months of this year, Zheng Shang cotton futures grew by 625% and 1183% respectively, ranking first among futures commodities.

Since September 7th of this year, the total turnover of cotton futures in Zhengzhou merchants has exceeded 100 million hands, 5 tons per hand. On the 10 day, the total number of positions held by the company exceeded 400 thousand hands, which is higher than that in New York cotton history. The maximum daily volume of pactions is 30%.

Of course, the supply and demand change is the basic reason for the rise in cotton prices this year.

According to the report of the International Cotton Advisory Committee in October 1st this year, due to the increased demand for raw materials for cotton and the limited space for production growth, the shortage of cotton products has pushed up cotton prices.

International cotton prices have been rising since April 2009, and have increased since August.

The Cotlook A index surged to 115.6 cents / pound in September 29th, up 80% from the same period last year, the highest price since May 23, 1995 and continued to rise to 166 cents / pound by November 9th.

At the same time, the reduction of cotton inventories is also a powerful promoter of cotton price rise.

World cotton inventories decreased 24% to 9 million tons in 2009/2010, ending 5 years of high inventory.

The cotton association of China has made statistics on 114 domestic warehousing units. As of the end of August this year, the total turnover of commodity cotton turnover was 166 thousand tons, a decrease of 230 thousand tons per annulus. Based on this, it was estimated that the total turnover of the total commodity cotton turnover in China was about 205 thousand tons, which was 251 thousand tons lower than that in July.

Hot money is rising from the trend of prosperity

Speculative capital has been rising from the prevailing wind, which has aggravated the impermanence of cotton prices.

Since July this year, the harsh climate of some major agricultural products in Europe and America and Asia has brought uncertainty to the future supply, and speculative capital has taken this opportunity to pour into the agricultural futures market for speculation.

Before the financial crisis, the bulk of raw materials except cotton increased sharply.

Over the past two years, all countries in the world have intensified supervision over the speculation of oil and other derivatives, and hot money has been converted to cotton and other agricultural and sideline products.

New York futures exchange data show that as of the end of September this year, cotton futures noncommercial long positions were 78804 hands, an increase of 34386 compared with the early July cotton price rise, an increase of 77.41%.

Domestic hot money is also eyeing the market of cotton and other agricultural products.

Because of the relatively loose monetary policy of the country this year, the speculative space of the real estate market under the state regulation has been narrowed in the second half of the year, and hot money has poured into cotton and other agricultural products futures market.

In September 21st, the turnover of the main 1105 cotton contract reached 1588808 hands, hitting a record high.

In November 9th, the 1105 main contract volume reached 1694108 hands, a new record high.

This has seriously deviated from the basic function of futures as a financial leverage.

"This is by no means a normal state! Cotton prices have seriously deviated from the fundamentals of supply and demand, and there is a big bubble.

On the surface, it is good for chemical fiber products, but fundamentally speaking, it is increasing the risk of the entire raw material market such as cotton and chemical fiber.

Industry experts said.