Cotton Prices Are Stabilizing &Nbsp; Home Textiles Are Good For Rabbit Year.

The tiger year is coming.

11, December should be the peak season for home textile industry, but the market is against the normal situation of the great depression, and its sales volume is not as good as the June slack season.

The operators are generally worried about the later period. How do we know the trend of next year? Cotton prices have become the focus of attention. The author pays attention to cotton prices all the year round.

Bullish factors:

1. Recently, the Federal Reserve has decided to continue the implementation of the third round of quantitative easing policy in the US dollar, which will devalue the US dollar and make the international bulk commodities priced in US dollar go up sharply.

After "12.17", the US cotton rose again to 149.37 cents / pound. The cotlooKA pick-up price was RMB 29502 yuan / ton, 2303 yuan / ton higher than the 328 cotton 27199 yuan / ton, which will lead to a decrease in cotton imports and an increase in exports.

Two, cotton farmers produce a mentality of reluctant sale, looking forward to the sale after the Spring Festival.

Now it's 5.7 yuan / Jin.

Three, domestic cotton production reduction this year, high grade

Four, cotton prices are sold at the price of 26000 yuan / ton, and the average price of seed cotton is upside down.

Five, domestic cotton has rebounded slightly in recent years, and spot has followed a slight rise.

Bearish factors:

1. In December 10th, the US Department of agriculture (USDA) announced the forecast of global cotton production and marketing in 2010/2011.

(1) global cotton production is 25 million 154 thousand tons, an increase of 3 million 46 thousand tons over the previous year, an increase of 13.8%.

Among them, the United States increased by 49.8%, India increased by 12.1%, Brazil increased by 48.6%, Australia increased by 125.6%, and China's reduction by 6.2%.

(2) global cotton consumption is 25 million 310 thousand tons, a decrease of 465 thousand tons over the previous year, a decrease of 1.8%, and a basically balanced global production and demand.

(3) the US Department of agriculture has made some amendments to the forecast of supply and demand in the previous stage, that is, the increase in production and the decrease in consumption. The stock at the end of the month is forecast to increase. Compared with the sales situation in the past two months, the sale of home textile products has been greatly suppressed, and cotton will turn to an oversupply.

Two, the state strictly controls the price rise of agricultural products, and attacks the speculation of idle funds, so that most of the idle funds are mainly shipped out for cash.

It is hard to raise the second round of speculation by increasing the risk of venture capital speculation.

Three, in December 20th, the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points for sixth times, and the reserve ratio reached 18.8%.

The currency will shift from quantitative easing to monetary moderation next year, indicating that the country has begun to focus on price regulation.

Four, home textiles and finished goods enterprises have larger inventory and are in the stage of digestion and inventory. With the sharp drop in cotton prices after November 10th, the market is in the wait-and-see stage, and sales are weak.

From the sales situation of Nantong Home Textile City, the sales volume is generally less than half of the previous stage. Before the price rises, two months' inventory is ready, and now it takes four months to consume. The market feels the "cold winter", and customers do not need replenishment at all.

Five, home textile enterprises basically set up positions before the price of cotton 26000 yuan.

The fabric business has a multi month cycle of weaving and dyeing, and the cost is relatively low in the early stage. Due to market competition factors, the sales price of fabric is smaller than that of cotton and cotton yarns, and the cotton price has risen from 25946 yuan per ton in October 26th to 31302 yuan per ton in November 11th, and then dropped back to 27199 yuan / ton in December 17th.

At this price of cotton, there is little room for price reduction for fabric enterprises.

A small pullback is only the result of pressure from the spinning mills and grey mills to squeeze profit margins.

If we want to make the fabric back sharply, we expect cotton prices to fall further.

{page_break}

Six, with the national macro-control, market cotton prices and agricultural and sideline products have fallen sharply.

The market is buying or selling, but consumers are on the sidelines and expect their products to fall back to their original price.

While the price of finished products has been postponed, the pre sale price itself has not reached the right place, and the fabric enterprises have not fallen much. They have not fallen through the previous average purchase price, making the production cost difficult to reduce, and the selling price is still difficult to loose.

Consumers do not acknowledge the current high price, because bed products are not hard consumer goods.

Consumers have postponed or abandoned their purchase in front of high priced places. Group buying has been greatly reduced and most of them have been selected for other commodities.

The slump in the terminal market has also pushed cotton prices down further.

Seven, near the year-end, the continuous weakening of market sales has caused some business households to panic. With some of the seasonings, such as grinding and rainproof cloth, coming to an end, some large inventory households have taken some sales promotion measures to recoup the funds.

Eight, poor market sales, increased inventory and lack of confidence have affected the number of new flower models introduced in spring next year, so that the willingness to purchase grey fabrics is not strong.

Nine, the sharp fluctuations in the market, so that some of the weak strength of the textile enterprises have been eliminated, the overall capacity reduction.

Many home textile enterprises are also trying to reduce inventory pressure and take workers' early leave to make short demand for cotton.

To sum up, the supply and demand sides are in a state of stalemate. This stage is the weakest time for supply and demand. Cotton prices will enter a period of adjustment. 27000 yuan / ton is probably the support point for cotton prices.

Because the US cotton has been higher than the domestic 2300 yuan / ton, so that futures do not dare to suppress the short selling. The continued weakness of domestic sales makes the hedging intention is not strong enough to do much.

In the case of cotton farmers' enthusiasm for planting cotton is not high, cotton farmers will control the planting area in order to safeguard their interests and avoid the reincarnation of cotton prices in the past year.

If the climate is normal, cotton prices should stabilize next year.

The stability of raw materials will help domestic textile enterprises to undertake orders and marketing promotion, production will be stable and profits will be more reasonable.

With the recovery of European and American economies, the price of cotton in the United States is higher than that in China, which is conducive to the increase of foreign trade orders at the beginning of this year.

Next year, as prices stabilize for some time, consumers will gradually adapt to and accept the market price, and this year's demand for home textiles will be concentrated next year.

After a baptism at the end of the year, the scale structure of home textile enterprises will be more reasonable, and the efficiency of enterprises will be generally improved next year.