Cotton Is Good After The Festival.

Entering the 2011, Zheng cotton approached the 30 thousand pass again. The floods in Australia caused the market to talk about it. Can the replenishment bank before the spring festival start the pre market quotation?

Early inventory is low, hidden danger for extreme market.

In 2010, cotton prices in the history of the highest, while cotton inventories also hit a low value in recent years.

In 2010/2011, cotton's ability to rely on stocks has been reduced. Once there is insufficient supply or natural disasters, cotton will easily have extreme quotas.

Before the launch of new cotton, a lower initial inventory is likely to keep high cotton prices "warming up".

Lack of production, cotton fundamentals tightened

Because

For the first time, there are few cotton imports available for quota distribution.

In 2010, there was not much left in the national treasury of cotton.

2010/2011, in

At present, even if enterprises get import quotas, the quantity of cotton that can be imported is not much.

According to the report issued by the international cotton advisory board (ICAC) in January 3rd, the volume of global cotton trade is 8 million 300 thousand tons in 2010/2011, while only about 10% of cotton can be purchased.

As of the end of December 2010, the US cotton export contract has exceeded 3 million 100 thousand tons, accounting for 90% of the total export volume.

India's cotton has been sold around the world, and the volume of contracted goods in Central Asia accounts for 85% of its exports, while Australia and Brazil are coming out of the market after April 2011.

Before the launch of new cotton in the US in 2011, the availability of global cotton trade resources was limited.

The proportion of Australian output is relatively small, and the impact of flood is limited.

Recently, the Australian floods affected cotton prices "nerves".

In Queensland, serious floods flooded large cotton fields, and 90% of them were washed away by floods.

Almost all of the cotton produced in Australia is exported to the world, the third largest exporter of cotton in the world.

However, Australia's output is only about 4 million packs, accounting for only 3.4% of the world's total cotton output by 115 million 530 thousand packs.

Therefore, the Australian floods will not have a substantial impact on cotton prices, and world cotton prices will not rise substantially.

Spot before the Spring Festival is not enough to start the replenishment market.

In January 4th, a large cotton mill in Shandong raised the purchase price of grade 329 lint to 27600 yuan / ton, causing the market to guess the start of the stock market before the Spring Festival.

According to the author's market research, some companies are purchasing cotton and replenishing stock in the Spring Festival.

However, this situation is not a common practice in the textile industry, but an individual phenomenon in which enterprises purchase according to their actual conditions.

Near the Spring Festival, some enterprises are eager to sell inventory, withdraw funds, and some enterprises, early holidays, large-scale procurement behavior will not wait until after the Spring Festival will be staged.

Therefore, the replenishment behavior before the Spring Festival is not enough to drive up the price of cotton.

To sum up, before the Spring Festival, the plain spot market is not enough to drive the cotton futures to over 30 thousand. The Australian flood has little impact on the market, and the futures market will still oscillate around the 27000 - 29000 interval.

After the Spring Festival, the exuberant procurement and limited resources of cotton will be exposed. The inventory of historical lows will not be adjusted from there. Cotton prices will rise sharply, and cotton will hit a record high.

The sharp drop in cotton prices will not be until after the new cotton market in China and the United States.

Operation, before the Spring Festival, take a short-term operation with high throwing and low absorption. After the Spring Festival, you can make long line and many single.