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Small And Medium-Sized Enterprises Will Face Severe Test Of "Life And Death".

2011/1/11 10:59:00 40

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In 2011, the days of Chinese textile exporters may continue to be entangled or even intensified over the past year.

Experts said that in 2010, China's textile exports totaled nearly $200 billion, and the continued expansion of market share would be faced with a "ceiling" problem.

The voice from the corporate level is,

Exit

Will no longer be the main source of profits for large enterprises, and some SMEs will face severe challenges of "life and death".

"There is no doubt that the two digit growth rate of textile exports in 2010 is beyond doubt. However, under the influence of many unfavorable factors such as high cost, increased exchange rate fluctuations and the expansion of the impact of the European debt crisis, the export environment in 2011 will become grim and the possibility of single digit growth will be great."

Wang Qian, editor in chief of China's first textile network, first made a basic judgement of the situation in an interview with reporters.

"Of course, the degree of slowdown will mainly depend on whether there will be a new round of turbulence in the financial system of developed countries and whether there is a possibility of a bigger bubble."

From the expected return to normal growth interval

In Wang Qian's view, this year's exports are expected to rise more than expected.

financial crisis

After the outbreak, the demand brought by the end of the Western inventory and the late replenishment stage increased sharply, and the behavior was a short-term behavior.

In 2011, exports will obviously lack this tension demand pull, and will enter the normal development range from high speed recovery growth.

Wang Qianjin also said that in the second half of 2010, the price of raw materials had been rising and falling, and the RMB exchange rate has appreciated rapidly. Many factors interlace the textile and garment export enterprises that are in the peak period to take orders carefully or even dare to take orders. This is evident from the 108th Autumn Fair, and some SMEs have even appeared in the early spring festival.

The shortage of long list and the squeezing of export profit margins may be the first half of 2011.

export growth

Has a greater negative impact.

In addition, the industry generally expects that in 2011, the appreciation rate of RMB will be between 3%~5%, which will damage the competitiveness of textile exports to a certain extent, and will also produce "virtual high" export data. The actual export (RMB) may be lower than the customs statistics.

Wang pointed out that while looking at the unfavorable factors, we should also pay attention to some favorable factors.

"In 2010, the cost of production factors climbed rapidly. According to the law of cost pmission and the bargaining power of export enterprises, it is estimated that the price increase process of textile exports will continue in 2011, and the average unit price will increase by more than 10%.

Although the process of raising prices is rather difficult, it will also cause some cheap orders to pfer, but in general it is beneficial to the pformation and upgrading of textile exports, and is conducive to the growth of export volume.

Non profit source of foreign trade

Similar to Wang's forward view, Yin Guoxin, chairman of CHENFENG group, said that the pressure of exports in the first half of 2011 would be very great. He even claimed that some small businesses would shut down because they could not afford pressure.

This worry is mainly due to the anticipation of rising prices of raw materials.

"By January 1, 2011, many foreign customers have not placed the order, the market is in the off-season, but they are likely to place orders after the Spring Festival. This will create a false impression of demand, and further promote the prices of the main raw materials such as cotton and silk products. The overall situation of the industry will be very severe."

Yin Guo Xin said.

In such an atmosphere, powerful enterprises have stronger anti wave capability, and small businesses are worried about their survival prospects.

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Yin Guoxin analysis shows that if the price of raw materials continues to rise and fall, and the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate is uncertain, it will mean that China's market risk has increased significantly, and the trend of export orders moving to Southeast Asia will be irresistible.

Yin Guoxin therefore hoped that the state could pay more attention to labor-intensive industries and continue to guide and standardize the prices of raw materials reasonably.

Wang Jun, general manager of Ningbo VICCO import and export company, also said that at present, orders for 1 and February were not yet implemented in 2011. "Long Dan dare not answer, even if the current price of raw materials is increased, it is difficult to guarantee profits at the new price. The turnover of the company's 2 billion yuan is only 230 million, which shows how difficult it is to export textile products".

Wang Jun said that in 2010, the company's exports increased by 20%~30%, but interest rates were dropping. The group's profits in foreign trade were far greater than those in foreign trade. Textile exports in the next 5~10 years will no longer be the main source of profits.