Order The Factory, But The Factory Can Not Recruit Workers.

According to Chinese tradition, new year is counted before fifteen.

Many migrant workers who want to return to the city still have the chance to vote with their feet: continue to work on the coast or join the tide of industrial pfer in the Midwest.

Chang Guifang, chairman of Shanghai Juhua industry and Trade Co., Ltd.

For those who are more adept at taking the lead in the data sea, they believe that China's foreign trade data in January will remain strong.

In fact, it is likely that the foreign trade performance in the coming months will be very worrying because many small and medium-sized enterprises are facing the problem of "recruitment difficulty", which will directly affect the order and business operation this month.

Order the factory, but the factory can not recruit workers.

Chang Guifang is a small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprise, and has cooperation with hundreds of processing factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang.

She told reporters that the factories that had worked with it this year, "

"We give orders to factories, factories but not workers, and also face pressure to raise wages for workers."

Chang Guifang said.

But at the same time, she pointed out that, because it is less than fifteen of the first month, she can not see whether this trend is more serious than last year.

The "labor shortage in spring, the struggle for labor between the East and the west", which was reported yesterday, shows that the phenomenon of "shortage of migrant workers" that has attracted much attention a few years ago has been particularly prominent this year. What is worth noting is that with the quietly changing China's economic map, the central and western regions are beginning to compete with the East for the fierce competition of migrant workers.

Research Institute's latest export research report also highlights the "Recruitment" problem.

This month container freight research shows that shipping market enters before the festival.

This month's textile industry survey also shows that the employment situation is grim, and most of the respondents reflect the industry's new recruitment difficulties and unstable workers.

As for the electronic export industry, although the demand for overseas concentrated stocking before the Spring Festival in January has been maintained, new orders remain strong. However, from the orders received now, the decline in production before the year is a major reason.

In this regard, Liu Yuanchun, vice president of the school of economics, Renmin University of China, told reporters that he thought this year's "labor shortage" will not be more violent than in previous years.

"Perhaps industrial gradient pfer will inhibit the trend of cross regional employment to a certain extent."

But in general, the supply of young workers of the right age will remain at a high level throughout the country for a long time, he said.

Moreover, since last year, the general rise in wages of coastal export-oriented enterprises will also attract migrant workers to employment.

Optimistic about foreign trade in January

For the upcoming January export import and export data, a number of agencies have judged that imports and exports will remain strong in January, while the monthly surplus will be narrowed slightly.

Wang Tao, chief economist of UBS Securities, pointed out that export growth in January will remain strong.

"Export orders have been strong in the past few months, rising again in December and January last year.

We expect exports to grow by about 18% in January compared with the same period last year.

However, import growth is also strong (especially the rise in import prices).

This led to a reduction in the trade surplus in January. "

She said.

Goldman Sachs Gao Hua's latest report also pointed out that the growth rate of imports and exports will rebound.

According to the report, although the new export order component index of the PMI has been adjusted after several months of improvement, the data series shows a moderate seasonal trend, which is basically flat after the quarter adjustment.

Therefore, they expect export growth in January to increase from 17.9% in December to 25%.

In addition, supported by strong domestic demand and rebound in upstream commodity import prices, import growth in January will rise from 25.6% in December to 33% in the same period last year.

Lu Zheng commissar, chief economist of Industrial Bank, predicted that exports will remain stable in January, and imports will continue to grow.

He believes that from China's export container pport market data, although the volume of cargo growth in North America, Europe and the Mediterranean was weak in the first half of 1, the volume of export container cargo rebounded significantly in the middle and later ten days of the Spring Festival.

Overall, volume remained stable in January.

Imports may continue to grow.

Accordingly, he expects that the growth rate of exports will grow in the 18.0%~21.4% range, and the growth rate of imports will continue to reach 26.0%~28.5% in the same period. The surplus may be between 8 billion ~114 billion dollars.