The Impact Of High Oil Prices On Traditional Cars And Textiles Or Clothing Or Affected
The impact of oil price on US $100 will be one of the most concerned topics for investors.
The impact of rising oil prices on consumption is lagging behind.
Yesterday (March 11th), the economic data released by the National Bureau of statistics showed that CPI reached 4.9% in February.
The advent of the era of high oil prices has increased the pressure on the consumer price index.
The international financial research center of the Institute of world economics and politics of the Chinese Academy of social sciences has just published a research report that, in the long run, oil as an important means of production, the rising cost will bring relative price changes to the social economy. This is a direct impact. On the other hand, the reduction of factor inputs and the rise of price level will make the central bank's monetary policy change and bring about the second round change of output and price level, which is an indirect effect.
In a monthly report, Huachang securities also said that the impact of high oil prices on short-term domestic prices could be controlled.
This is mainly because China is an investment oriented economy, so the direct and maximum impact of oil price rise on China is mainly reflected in the cost of production and the cost of economic growth, but the impact on inflation is indirect and relatively lagging behind.
The impact of rising oil prices on the various sectors of consumption varies.
Insiders pointed out that, generally speaking, when the high oil price era comes, the four categories of consumption, clothing, food and housing must be affected by "row" and "clothes", because both traditional cars and textile and clothing are directly related to the demand for crude oil.
Auto industry: rising cost leads to falling demand
The automobile industry has experienced a big bull market in recent two years. But entering the 2011, the market's attitude towards the industry has undergone subtle changes. Especially after the price of oil has been broken, the industry has expressed concern about the development of the traditional automobile industry.
Ma Chunxia, a researcher at Zhejiang Merchants Securities, pointed out that the rise in oil prices is partial to the overall automotive industry.
First of all, automobile tires, plastics, glass and so on are all made of petroleum, and the change of crude oil price will drive the fluctuation of industrial prices.
On the whole, if the price of oil increases and the price of tires and glass rises, the gross profit margins of all kinds of Companies in the industry will drop to varying degrees.
In addition, the rise in crude oil prices also raises other costs, such as pportation costs, electricity prices and so on.
Second, the changes in the price of refined oil will affect the cost of vehicle use, thereby affecting the sales volume of vehicles by affecting the interests of consumers.
Overall, the price of refined oil has a greater negative impact on passenger car sales.
For commercial vehicles, which are generally used as means of production, their demand is relatively less affected by rising oil prices.
But Ma Chunxia also said that the rise in oil prices can also play a positive role to some extent, such as prompting some consumers to change their spending habits.
Under the dual influence of oil price and policy, the future energy saving and new energy vehicles will receive more attention.
Textile and clothing: first affect the chemical fiber industry.
Relative to the traditional automobile industry, the price of oil is opposite.
Textile and clothing
The impact may not be so obvious in the short term.
But in the long run, if the oil price stays high, it will undoubtedly affect the chemical fiber enterprises and their downstream garment enterprises.
Wang Qian, editor in chief of China's first textile network, told the daily economic news that the impact of oil prices on the textile industry chain can be divided into two parts: one is the direct impact, that is, the impact of the direct use of oil as raw materials for chemical fiber and other industries. If oil prices continue to rise, the chemical fiber enterprises will only pass on the cost pressure through the rise in prices; two, the indirect effect. The high oil prices may cause domestic and foreign demand to drop, resulting in the decline of orders for all kinds of enterprises, including garments.
But Wang also stressed that the rise of oil prices to chemical fiber companies needs a process, at least for a few months.
At present, the rapid rise of short-term oil prices has not caused the cost of chemical fiber enterprises to rise. And since the price of chemical fiber products has increased substantially since last year, the overall trend of the recent shocks has not been raised substantially because of the rise in oil prices.
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