Inflation Control Is Still The Primary Task &Nbsp; Monetary Policy Needs To Be Maintained.

In recent days, the central bank has announced the 5 increase in deposit and loan benchmark interest rate, which has raised the interest rate of "second guns" this year. Experts believe that under the strict control of the central bank, the monetary conditions of price rise have been significantly suppressed, but Inflationary pressure Still can not be belittled. The central bank decided to raise interest rates at such a time point, aimed at coping with the current price pressures that may again hit new heights.

Correctly understanding the causes and nature of the increasing inflation pressure is crucial for judging inflation trend and monetary policy direction. First of all, inflationary pressures are increasing. From the international perspective, the international crude oil prices continue to stand on the top of $100, and the world food and Agriculture Organization also expects that food prices may continue to linger high in the future. From the domestic perspective, the market predicts that CPI will be over 5% in March, breaking through the new round of inflation again. Secondly, although PMI shows that the future economic cycle may slow down slightly, it does not achieve the level of worrying, and China's economic growth is still relatively strong. Taking all these factors into consideration, inflation control is still the primary task of the policy, and monetary policy still needs to be maintained.

Experts pointed out that the current monetary policy focuses on curbing inflation. Interest rates, reserve ratio and exchange rate "three rates" still have room for improvement. Monetary policy is difficult to relax in the two quarter or longer. Stabilizing prices is seen by the authorities as an important task for this year's work. Raising interest rates is an early response from the central bank to the inflationary pressures that may rebound. After the interest rate hike, the use of interest rate instruments is also narrowing, but there is still a possibility of further upward adjustment during the year, which is due to the need to deal with negative interest rates and curb inflation. However, continuous interest rate increase is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it will help to alleviate the negative interest rate of Chinese residents. On the other hand, it will also raise the financing cost of Chinese enterprises and mortgage consumers to a certain extent.

At the same time, there is also concern that increasing interest rates will have a negative impact on commercial banks. We note that compared with the last increase in interest rates in February 9th, the interest rate hike still took the way of raising the deposit and lending rates basically and symmetrically. But there are three different points: first, the increase in interest rate for demand deposits has increased. This time raised 10 basis points, and last time was 4 basis points; two, the rate of increase in regular deposit rates was 25 basis points. Last time, the benchmark interest rate for time deposits increased by more than that of 1 years. Three, the benchmark interest rate for 1-3 years increased. The increase was 30 basis points, the last time was 25 basis points, and higher than the average increase of loan benchmark interest rate.
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"Central bank pairs Increase interest The arrangement of the structure highlights its intention to protect the interest rate of banks. Overall, the impact of this increase in interest rates on commercial banks is basically neutral. Dr. E Yongjian, a financial research center at Bank of Communications (601328), said. The medium-term impact of interest rate increase on business development of commercial banks is also slightly positive. Raising interest rates once again reveals the government's determination to tighten the currency and curb inflation. Improving the benchmark interest rate helps to enhance the attractiveness of commercial banks' deposits and financial services to customers, especially individual customers. From the perspective of the development trend of loans, the interest rate increase also shows that the government is still more confident about the prospects of economic growth, and the situation of loan demand is still going to continue, which is more favorable for banks to further enhance their bargaining power.

For the future whether the central bank will further raise interest rates, economists believe that the global liquidity caused by the US quantitative easing policy has led to a continuous rise in commodity prices, and China's import inflation pressure is growing. At the same time, under the combined influence of demand driven by China's rapid economic growth, loose monetary push and rising labor costs, domestic inflation pressure is still relatively high in the first half of this year. At the same time, the current signs of global inflation are gradually emerging, and the world will enter the interest rate channel. There is no indication that China will stop raising interest rates.

Some analysts believe that at present, the deposit reserve ratio of large commercial banks reaches 20%, and there is still room for the theoretical "ceiling value". The continued low interest rate in the money market also shows that the overall liquidity of the market is still loose. However, the structural tightening of liquidity has been looming. Some commercial banks are strained by capital and continue to raise the deposit reserve ratio, making some small and medium-sized commercial banks liquidity management facing severe challenges. At the same time, it is difficult to complete the hedge task only by open market operation. It is not possible to raise the deposit reserve ratio.

Stabilizing prices is the primary task of the government's work this year, and is also the primary goal of macroeconomic regulation and control. Since the central bank raised interest rates in February 9th this year, the reserve requirement ratio has been raised two times in a row. However, with the increase of inflation pressure, the central bank has again used price tools on the 5 day. Lu Zheng commissar, chief economist of Xingye Bank (601166) capital operation center, thinks that after raising interest rates this time, there will be 2-3 additional interest rates in the future. The statutory reserve requirement rate calculated by the four state-owned commercial banks will be increased to 23%. Among them, there will be an increase in the reserve requirement rate in April. In addition, a quarterly survey conducted by the central bank's investigation and Statistics Division to the national bankers shows that 66.1% expects the future monetary environment to further tighten. This index has increased by 15.8 percentage points over the previous quarter. It is widely expected that the central bank will increase the need for the use of quantitative and price based tools in the future. monetary policy It is still necessary to maintain the necessary strength.