Short Term Price Pressure Can Hardly Be Reduced By &Nbsp; Most Of The Economic Indicators Are "Warm".

Most of the real economic indicators in March are now "warm".

National Bureau of Statistics announced the first quarter of 15 economic performance shows that in March consumer prices (

Analysts believe that, despite

CPI growth is still not "peaked."

Data showed that both CPI and PPI rebounded in March, rising 5.4% and 7.3%, respectively, in the past 32 months and nearly 30 months ago.

The National Bureau of statistics also announced the price of agricultural production. In the first quarter, the prices of agricultural products rose by 15.6% over the same period.

On the CPI side, due to the regression of the Spring Festival factor, the food price in March showed a negative growth, but the trend of non food generally rising is worth paying close attention to.

In March, the prices of eight categories of CPI products rose all over the same period, of which the price of traffic and communications was the smallest, 0.1%, and the biggest increase in food prices was 11.7%.

According to the statistics of the China Securities newspaper, the price of the last eight kinds of products rose at the same time, and it should be traced back to December 2006.

Analysts believe that China's commodity prices, especially food and other necessities of life prices have risen substantially, from the point of view of the relationship between prices, the price of services there is a certain objective of "inflation."

For future price movements, some experts believe that CPI growth is still not "peaked."

Gao Shanwen, chief economist of Anxin securities, believes that the current two quarter CPI growth is likely to be higher.

From PPI, nearly 10% of the increase may not be driven solely by commodities.

CICC reports that the current signs of non food inflation are emerging.

In March, the price of food decreased by about 1%, but the price of non food increased by 0.1%, which broke the rule that the non food prices in the past ten years dropped seasonally in March.

"Controlling inflation will be the primary task of policy adjustment in the two quarter, and the possibility of further increase in interest rates will continue, while monetary and credit policies will continue to shrink."

Song Yu, a Chinese economist at Goldman Sachs, thinks that inflation has risen in March, which shows that the current inflation pressure is still more obvious.

Policymakers' tightening position will not change, but will leave room for economic growth.

Compared with the first quarter of large-scale tightening measures, the intensity of the two quarter may be eased.

Solid economic stability

In terms of economic growth, the first quarter's macroeconomic data initially dispelled doubts about the economic slowdown.

Data showed that GDP grew by 9.7% in the first quarter compared with 9.8% in the previous quarter.

In the first quarter, the added value of above scale industries increased by 14.4%, fixed asset investment increased by 25%, total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 16.3%, and the growth rate of these three indicators grew faster than that of 1 to February.

Analysts pointed out that from the macro environment portfolio, price pressures have not yet effectively improved to become the mainstream market view, and the speed of economic growth has become an important variable in investment behavior.

From the first quarter data, the current real economy is more inclined to appear "high growth and high inflation" combination, which is undoubtedly better than "low growth and high inflation" situation.

The National Bureau of statistics also announced the contribution of the three major demands to the expenditure law GDP.

In the first quarter, the final consumption, capital formation and net exports of goods and services respectively increased GDP by 5.9, 4.3 and -0.5 percentage points respectively.

Sheng Lai Yun, a spokesman for the National Bureau of statistics, stressed that judging from the operation of the three carriages driving economic growth, it is possible to predict the steady growth of the national economy in the first half and even the whole year.

From the monthly data, the more dramatic change is the rebound in consumption growth.

From 1 to February, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 15.8% compared to the same period last year, and rebounded to 17.4% in March.

From the perspective of specific consumption varieties, the growth rate of consumption of automobiles, jewellery, household appliances, petroleum products and other products has rebounded.

Analysts believe that there may be factors of price changes, and also reflect the potential growth prospects of related industries.

In terms of investment in fixed assets, communications equipment and computers, electrical machinery, pportation equipment, railway pportation and other industries still maintain a relatively fast growth rate.

"At present, investment enthusiasm is relatively high and investment power is relatively strong everywhere.

The growth rate of private investment in the first quarter was 31.5%, and continued to maintain a relatively high growth rate, indicating that the endogenous driving force of the economy is growing.

Sheng Lai Yun said.

"New" indicators and "old" topics

For the first quarter economic data conference, an important "bright spot" is the release of four annulus indicators: GDP, industrial added value, fixed asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods.

In some western countries, the importance of analyzing annulus data is no less than that of year-on-year data.

Before China lacked this part of the data statistics, many brokerage researchers used the information to carry out the "grass root" chain analysis.

It can be imagined that in the future, chain analysis will increasingly become the "mainstream" in economic data analysis.

"From GDP's link data, data reliability should be good.

I used several seasonal adjustment methods, and the results also fell in this interval.

However, the improvement of China's annulus statistics should also continue to accelerate. Why not publish the seasonal adjusted ring ratio index, as CPI is such an important indicator?

A brokerage analyst told the China Securities Journal reporter: "if there is no seasonal adjustment, the CPI ratio in March will definitely decrease, which means that the index has lost the actual reference significance."

As the economic growth rate in the first quarter is still relatively fast, the four link index also recorded a relatively substantial positive growth rate.

In the first quarter, GDP grew by 2.1%, to a certain extent, dispelled the industry's doubts about the slowdown in the real economy.

In fact, in recent years, the "new" changes in China's macroeconomic statistics are in an endless stream.

CPI weight adjustment, housing price statistics reform, private enterprise wage statistics...

The adjustment of these changes has also aroused widespread public concern.

Despite the fact that statistical indicators have been "going to the old and new", at the press conference, many journalists are still concerned about the "old topic".

Prices have gone up again?

Will the economy slow down?

Will income growth trigger new price increases?

Macro economy is not only related to national planning but also to people's livelihood.

For this economic data conference, CPI rose by 5.4% in March, and inflation has become a focus topic.

Even questioning the new statistical indicators is always "old" - is the data accurate?

A reporter asked during the press conference that the statistical communiqu of Dongguan in recent three years is identical. How does the National Bureau of statistics think about it?

The head of the National Bureau of statistics took the opportunity to make a clear statement and has instructed the Guangdong statistical bureau to deal with the responsible persons seriously.

The incident is an individual phenomenon, but it needs further improvement. The media reporters, including the public, are welcome to supervise the statistical work.

And China Securities Journal reporter learned that the Bureau of statistics for the outside world frequently questioned actually feel helpless.

"Now everyone is going to talk about statistics, everyone will give directions, and anyone will question statistics.

Statistics is a science. Do not vulgarization statistics. "

A Statistics Bureau insider said.

Just as one thousand readers have one thousand Hamlett in their hearts, one thousand of the one thousand public minds belong to their own economic accounts.

GDP, CPI, PPI...

These professional economic terms have been known by more and more people.

Behind the public concerns, discussions and even doubts, in fact, reflects the growing demand for information and wealth growth.

This demand will still be accompanied by people's social and economic life in the future.