The Spread Of Electricity Shortage Triggers Diesel Shortage

The midsummer season has not yet arrived, and domestic concerns about the tight electricity demand this summer have already emerged.

Market worries, diesel oil caused by power sluice restriction

Domestic insurance this summer

Driven by economic growth and other factors, China's demand for electricity consumption has increased rapidly this year.

In the first quarter, the total electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 12.72% over the previous year, totaling 10911 billion kwh.

As demand rose sharply, China's electricity supply again issued a tense signal.

The national development and Reform Commission recently issued the circular on doing well in the regulation of electric power operation in 2011, pointing out that in 2011, the electricity demand situation will be relatively tight in recent years.

Electricity supply and demand in most areas are tight this year, and 20 provinces (districts and municipalities) have implemented orderly electricity consumption at the beginning of the year.

"Electricity demand in China is obviously different from peak to valley in one year. During the peak summer rush period, the capacity of the power grid is often tested, and the phenomenon of power shortage is more or less frequent."

Yang Zonglin, senior engineer of East China Power Development Planning Department, told reporters that the rapid growth of demand for electricity, the lag of power supply and power grid construction in some areas, and the uncertain factors of electric coal and water supply have an impact on the stability of power supply and demand in China.

Taking East China as an example, according to the East China power grid calculation, the peak power demand in East China power grid is expected to be about 190 million kwh in 2011, which is up by 14.9% over the same period last year.

During the peak period, the East China grid power gap will reach 11 million 660 thousand kwh.

May trigger "diesel shortage" again

In East China, the signal of tight supply of electricity this summer has produced a series of chain reactions in the market.

In March, there were signs of electricity shortage in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other places, and urgent measures were taken to reduce electricity consumption of enterprises with high energy consumption and high emissions, encourage enterprises to avoid peak electricity consumption and limit electricity to non continuous production enterprises.

Electricity supply has already been tense at the turn of spring and summer. With the peak of summer electricity consumption, the tension in East China is likely to be further strengthened.

At present, the market is full of worries that the power supply shortage in East China this summer will lead to more extensive "sluice restriction".

Even worrying that more than just east China, there are likely to be more power cuts in the summer to ensure important electricity consumption.

"Power shortage" is likely to trigger a "diesel shortage" again.

Zhong Jian, chief analyst of energy Energy Research Institute, said that after the power cuts, many enterprises may switch to diesel power generation, which will increase the demand for diesel power generation and further increase the supply pressure of domestic diesel.

And this potential uncertainty makes people worry about whether the national "diesel shortage" will reappear in the second half of 2010.

How to solve the warranty problem

In recent years, the phenomenon of tight supply of electricity in China often exists, often "coal shortage in winter, summer power shortage", and "power supply every year, every year is tense now".

Fundamentally speaking, there are objective factors such as seasonal peak valley difference and regional electricity demand difference between the East and the West in China's electricity demand, so that the electricity market will show "surplus in the busy season and off-season" and "the East is tight enough for the west".

China Electric Power Federation predicts that in 2011, China's total electricity consumption reached 4 trillion and 700 billion kwh, an increase of 12% over the same period last year.

The implementation level and effect of domestic industrial development, energy saving measures and electricity price policy will have a great impact on the growth of electricity consumption and the structure of electricity consumption.

However, from the supply side, the power generation enterprises, especially the thermal power enterprises, have been suffering from the soaring coal price in the recent years, while the downstream electricity price linkage is lagging behind. The difficulties of production and operation affect the long-term and stable development of the power supply in China.

Guotai Junan Securities electric power industry analyst Wang Wei told reporters that the current need to straighten out the upper and lower reaches of the electricity market from two aspects to ensure power supply.

On the one hand, it will enhance the enthusiasm of power generation enterprises through coal and electricity linkage, ensure the stability of power supply, and pmit energy price signals to the power users. On the other hand, through direct purchase of electricity and various pilot projects, the "experimental field" will be opened up for the final realization of electricity price marketization.

In view of the regional electricity shortage, Yang Baofeng, an analyst with the Oriental Securities Industry, said the fundamental solution is to increase UHV p regional pmission.

Yang Baofeng believes that in the context of strict control of carbon emissions and the safety of nuclear power, especially in the Yangtze River Delta region with more developed economy and more stringent environmental protection requirements, the approval of thermal power and nuclear power projects can be foreseen very slowly. Relying on UHV to achieve the "west to East Power pmission" appears to be the most effective solution. It is estimated that the UHV pmission lines will be put into operation in 2012.