Inventories Of Listed Companies Hit A Record High Of &Nbsp, And The Risk Of Enterprises Going To Inventory Gradually Revealed.

The domestic industrial market is undergoing profound changes. The hot selling situation is no longer replaced by the "no sale". Reporters from home appliances, Spin Clothing and other industries learned that as demand fell, commodity prices fell, inventories of enterprises surged, and manufacturers suffered.

　　 list Company inventories hit a new high

A homemade brand Senior executives of color TV enterprises told reporters that during the May 1 holiday, sales of color TV in Shanghai market did not exceed expectations, and sales in the first quarter were negative. In April, the market continued negative growth and stock pressure intensified.

Reporters learned that a clothing leading enterprise in the first quarter of 2011, the stock size increased from 2 billion 540 million yuan at the end of 2010 to 3 billion 160 million yuan, and the inventory size increased by 4 times compared with the end of 2010. The company explained that it was mainly due to seasonal factors and early preparation, but market analysts believe that there are also reasons for slowing sales.

The high inventory of household appliances and clothing industry is only a microcosm of the whole nation's enterprises. From the national data, at the end of 3, the finished product inventory of industrial enterprises in the whole country was 23671 billion yuan, up 23.2% over the same period last year, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the end of last month. Among them, the eastern, central and western regions increased by 22.3%, 23.6% and 26.2% respectively, an increase of 0.4, 1.8 and 3.1 percentage points over the end of last month.

Inventory backlog did not improve in April. In April, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry showed that the raw material inventory index reached 52% in the month, second only to the high level in January 2010.

By the end of March, the book inventory of Listed Companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities had reached 3 trillion and 530 billion yuan, which exceeded the level before the financial crisis in 2008 and reached a record high. Looking back at the situation of the entire A share listed companies in 2010, it is easy to find that real estate enterprises and resource processing enterprises are the typical representatives of the most obvious increase in inventories. At the end of the year, 12 listed companies with stock increase of more than ten billion yuan belong to these two types of enterprises.

Manufacturing enterprises are difficult at both ends.

"In fact, the stock accumulation of listed companies has started since the second half of 2009, and has not been apparent until the second half of 2010." Chen Li, chief strategist at UBS Securities, said there was a positive cycle from inflation to inventory to corporate profits. Driven by inflation expectation, enterprises will increase their stock to reflect the purchase of raw materials and intermediate goods to the order of upstream enterprises, and the profits of the corresponding enterprises will be better and the business growth will be strong. And better corporate earnings and strong business growth will lead to sustained inflation.

However, at present, the operation of enterprises is facing a dilemma of both ends, one end is to increase raw material procurement for anti inflation, and the other is weak demand. Many enterprises in order to go inventory is to take discount, promotion, direct reduction and other means to withdraw funds.

According to the report issued by the national cotton market monitoring system, as of April 11th, the yarn sales rate of textile enterprises was 84%, a decrease of 8.8 percentage points, the lowest level since September 2008, while the stock days were 26.5 days, the annulus ratio increased 13.1 days, the highest level since March 2009.

In April, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) showed that compared with the previous month, the raw material inventory index and supplier delivery time index increased slightly. Correspondingly, the new orders index and the new export orders index reflecting demand have dropped by more than 1 percentage points.

China logistics and purchasing Federation reported that the phenomenon of "one to two litres" appeared in the current enterprises, that is, the phenomenon of delinquency increased and accounts receivable increased in the process of inter enterprise accounts settlement. The supplier failed to deliver the goods in time because the demand side could not pay in time, and the inventory of finished products and backlogs increased. These two pressures make the current external environment of enterprises tighten, some small and medium-sized enterprises have difficulty in development, and production and business activities have declined.

The Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued the 3 annual report on the 2010 annual performance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's multi-level capital market and the first quarter performance in 2011, which was released on the day of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. The results show that the total cash flow of the listed companies in the 2010 Shenzhen Stock Exchange shows a decrease in net cash flow compared with the same period last year. The main board company decreased by 63.49% compared with the same period last year. After excluding Ningbo bank [12.49 0.56% shares, the average operating cash flow of small and medium sized boards decreased by 43.3% compared with the same period last year, and the average operating cash flow of GEM companies dropped by 41.4%. The increase in the size of the inventory will take a lot of money, which will undoubtedly drag the company's operating cash flow, and many enterprises' profit expectations have been lowered.

Inventory risk increased

The serious consequences of the high inventory of Listed Companies in 2008 are still fresh. Even in the middle of 2008, the listed companies also maintained a good profit. But after the outbreak of the global financial crisis in September, the stock that the enterprises had previously hoarded had a large area of unsalable sales, the income was shrinking, and the enterprises made provision for impairment, which eventually led to huge losses of many listed companies in 2008.

Guotai Junan macro research team believes that at present, PMI raw material inventory and finished product inventory are all at a high level. If future demand falls and finished product inventory continues to accumulate, and raw material inventory will begin to decline due to downstream demand or commodity prices falling, then the economy will be faced with the risk of inventory.

Zhou Jintao, a macroeconomic analyst at CITIC [0.00 0.00%], believes that unlike the previous stock cycle, the current stock cycle is always constrained by capital. Under the constraint of capital cost, the impulse of active replenishment and capacity expansion is suppressed. In fact, the speed and intensity of replenishment are weaker than the normal inventory cycle. Therefore, the upward acceleration of this inventory cycle is relatively slow.

"Although it is not as serious as it was in 2008, there is indeed concern." Chen Li believes that inflation will inevitably trigger a tightening policy, tightening policy may at some point to break the positive cycle. As a result, enterprises will have to reduce inventories, the price of products will decline, and the profits of enterprises will decline, thus entering a negative cycle.

However, many analysts believe that in the case of a sharp decline in orders, the next inventory cycle may be launched, and in the future, a new balance between product demand and price level will be sought.