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Xia Bin: China's Monetary Policy Is Difficult To Relax

2011/6/16 15:23:00 44

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Xia Bin China's Monetary Policy Unemployment Insurance

* monetary policy will be moderately tight and will not be relaxed easily.

* the situation of real deposit negative interest rate must be improved.

* the RMB exchange rate should gradually appreciate.

* China's economic growth is bound to decline, it is impossible to maintain the two digit growth.

The trend of China's future policy has become the focus of attention.

Xia Bin, member of the central bank's monetary policy committee, said that in the coming period, China's monetary policy is bound to be moderately tight and will not be relaxed easily, including monetary policy such as open market operations and deposit reserve ratio.

As for the tightness of monetary policy, China Securities Daily quoted him in a forum on Thursday, saying that the broad money supply (M2) growth rate has not been reduced to 16%. It should be noted that the balance of M2 at the end of 5 has exceeded 76 trillion yuan.

Xia Bin pointed out that without pformation, China's economy will not be sustainable, but the policy must not be shaken at the present time.

For the financial difficulties of some enterprises during the tightening process, we need

unemployment insurance

Cooperation with unemployment relief and other fiscal policies.

"The actual interest rate of deposits should be improved, otherwise it will not benefit.

Controlling prices

And stable expectations.

At the same time, the RMB exchange rate should also gradually appreciate.

He also said.

China announced Tuesday morning that the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 5.5% in May to a 34 month high. The central bank announced in the afternoon that it would increase the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points in the sixth period of the year, making it possible for large financial institutions to deposit.

reserve

The rate reached a historical high of 21.5%.

And since October last year, the central bank has increased interest rates for four consecutive times.

The latest survey by Reuters shows that the Central Bank of China will announce interest rates as early as the end of this month.

However, given the obvious fall in the real economy, the possibility of asymmetric increases in interest rates will be greater in the future.

At the same time, excessive use of deposit will inevitably impact on normal production and operation activities. It is expected that the pace of deposit adjustment may slow down in the future, or increase two times in the second half of the year, or even avoid turning around.

Xia Bin also said that global demand is generally more than international.

financial crisis

Before the reduction, and domestic excessive investment is not sustainable, consumption in the short term is difficult to effectively boost, so China's economic growth in the future will inevitably decline, it is impossible to maintain the two digit growth.

"This slowdown is not a business cycle problem, it is not determined by the government's macro policy forces. Overregulation of macroeconomic policies may accelerate or exacerbate the shocks and fluctuations of the economic cycle," he said.

The central bank's monetary policy is in a dilemma. Chen Dongqi, vice president of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, also said that at the current stage of economic slowdown, the timing of monetary policy easing is not yet ripe. The next step is not to completely stop tightening monetary policy, but to appropriately reduce the intensity of contraction and narrow the scope of contraction.